Something Doing in Charlotte: Hornets on the Right Track
This July, I had the fantastic opportunity to spend a week in Las Vegas for the NBA Summer League to participate in a Basketball Immersive program put together by Sports Business Classroom. The program included dozens of talks by NBA front office executives, coaches, scouts, and agents on topics ranging from high-level concepts like leadership and building successful organizations to granular details on building scouting reports and front office organizational roles. Program instructors—including some well-known names like Bobby Marks, J.A. Adande and Howard Beck, Steve Jones and Nekias Duncan from The Dunker’s Spot podcast, and Seth Partnow, among others—also hosted sessions on salary cap management, film breakdowns and scouting, effective use of basketball analytics, and media strategies for writing and broadcasting. In all respects, the Basketball Immersive was a near-unparalleled chance to learn from experienced pros about all aspects of the industry.
Students like me were also put into teams to participate in a mock NBA trade deadline exercise. I was assigned the Charlotte Hornets along with three other SBC students. Our task was to assess the team’s current standing, come up with a strategy for improving it, and then identify, negotiate, and complete permissible transactions under the NBA CBA’s rules to actually fulfill our strategy.
I’ll be the first to admit that I hadn’t spent a ton of time thinking deeply about the Hornets before the mock trade deadline exercise. The Hornets are a young team that has been largely outside the national NBA discourse in recent years as they’ve struggled to win many games (one could argue that Michael Jordan selling the team last year was the only truly national news about the team in the last couple seasons). Like a lot of NBA observers, I was familiar with the team’s best players LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, and I was aware of the team’s recent roster moves to obtain players like Josh Green and Grant Williams—and, controversially, re-sign Miles Bridges. I also knew the team had recently hired a lot of new front office staff, led by first-time GM Jeff Peterson (from the Brooklyn Nets), and a young new coaching staff under first-time Head Coach Charles Lee (from the Boston Celtics). But I hadn’t spent much time thinking about how the roster fit together, what their cap situation looked like, or what kind of draft capital they still had in the cupboard. I also didn’t have much of a sense going in as to how I felt about the team. Going through the mock trade deadline exercise made me think a lot more about how I view the Hornets and what I think they should try to do next, rightly or wrongly.
Having looked at the Hornets circumstances with more focus, I have to say that I am much more optimistic on the Hornets now than I was going in. I’ll explain why below (check the end to see what trades we made in the mock exercise, too)!
More Talent Than We’ve Seen the Last Two Years
The Hornets have won just 48 games over the last two seasons, good for a winning percentage of only about 29% and the third-worst record in the NBA over the period. With such a terrible record, it would be easy to assume the Hornets have been listlessly moving through the last couple years with little talent on the roster. But focusing on just the last two seasons misses the bigger picture. In fact, just a few years ago, a fun Hornets team led by All-Star LaMelo Ball won 43 games before losing in the Play-In to the Atlanta Hawks.
Talented Players Have Missed Too Much Time to Injury and Self-Inflicted Off-the-Court Issues
Since that promising season, the Hornets have suffered setback after setback, which has dramatically affected their ability to compete meaningfully during the regular season and stunted their team’s overall development.
Since making an All-Star team in just his second season, point guard LaMelo Ball has suffered a rash of ankle injuries that have prevented him from regularly seeing the floor the last two years. Ball has played just 22 games last season and 36 games in 2022-23.
At the time part of the Hornets core, small forward Miles Bridges was charged with multiple felonies in connection with an alleged domestic violence assault against his then-girlfriend in front of their children. Bridges pleaded no contest to a single felony count, missed the entire 2022-23 season, and missed the first 10 games of the 2023-24 season as a result of a league-imposed suspension relating to the allegations.
Mark Williams, Charlotte’s promising first round pick from the 2022 draft, played just 19 games last year due to lingering back issues.
Gordon Hayward struggled to stay healthy across multiple seasons after being brought to the Hornets from Boston. Hayward never played more than 50 games in a season while he was in Charlotte (he finally hit 51 games played this season after being traded to the Thunder in February).
Similarly, significant role-players like Cody Martin have missed big chunks of time. Martin played just 7 games in 2022-23 and just 28 games last season due to various leg injuries.
All the players above will be back with the Hornets next year except Hayward, which should make for a significant talent-infusion for the Hornets next season.
Let’s start with the guys coming back from injuries. If LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams can stay healthy and return to form, the Hornets should get back an All-Star caliber guard and a young starting center. A healthy Cody Martin would also give the Hornets back a quality rotation player.
Ball’s unique talent is well-known to basketball fans. Sporting elite size for a point guard at 6’7”, Ball is an adept offensive engine capable of creating for himself and others. He’s averaged at least 29 points and 11 assists per 100 possessions for each of the last three seasons on solid shooting efficiency, knocking down 37.4% of threes and 83.4% of free throws for his career. Advanced metrics also reflect Ball’s offensive skill. For example, his Offensive Estimated Plus-Minus (EPM) has been in the 94th percentile or higher amongst all players in each of the last 3 seasons, too (per Dunks and Threes). While he could stand to improve his finishing around the basket, up his free throw attempt rate, and take care of the ball a bit more, there’s little question in my mind that Ball is a tremendous offensive player. That’s especially notable given Ball is still just 22 years old.
Mark Williams isn’t the same level talent as Ball, but he’s been a pretty strong player in his own right despite his young age. He’s shown the ability to score around the basket effectively, operate as a pick and roll screener, and perform reasonably well as a defensive big. Though he’s played in just 62 games, for his career to date Williams is averaging 22.7 points, 17.6 rebounds, 2.3 blocks, and just 2.1 turnovers per 100 possessions, while shooting 64.2% from the field. Healthy numbers for a 22-year-old. The rebounding numbers deserve special attention, too. Williams’ career offensive rebounding percentage is 13.5% and his career defensive rebounding percentage is 26.5%, both of which compare favorably to All-Star-caliber centers like Jarrett Allen (career 11.3% and 24.2%) and Anthony Davis (career 8.6% and 25.2%). Williams probably isn’t the same level of defensive player as those guys, nor is he the offensive weapon that Davis is, but that’s nice company for a young big.
Martin, for his part, is a solid wing defender and capable rotation player. While Cody Martin isn’t the same player as his twin brother Caleb (less shooting has held back Cody Martin’s offense), he has flashed the ability to play above-average defense. In three of five NBA seasons, Martin has played better than average defense based on Defensive EPM per Dunks and Threes (last season’s 97th percentile rating for Defensive EPM is an outlier as Martin played only 28 games, but so was his 6th percentile rating in 2023 when he played only 7 games).
The situation for Miles Bridges is obviously quite a bit different. Even though he played most of last season, it was obvious that missing more than a year of basketball meaningfully hampered his game. Of course, Bridges bears responsibility for the time he missed and the repercussions to his play, but the impact to the Hornets was significant. Even though his counting stats stayed mostly consistent compared to his break-out season in 2022, Bridges took a huge step backward by the advanced numbers. He fell from an 88th percentile +2.2 EPM in 2021-22 to a 66th percentile -0.5 EPM in 2023-24 per Dunks and Threes. The drop-off was largely driven by a notable drop-off in two-point shooting efficiency, as Bridges was less efficient in the paint without Ball on the court as often to generate quality looks.
[Quick aside. Despite a drop in productivity, Charlotte’s new front office gave Bridges a new 3 year, $75 million deal this off-season. I was not in favor of giving him that deal based on Bridges pleading no contest to a serious domestic violence assault and allegations of subsequent domestic violence assaults involving the same person. That said, Charlotte certainly should have more information than I do as an outside observer, and I believe in second chances. Accordingly, I won’t be overly harsh on the deal for now. But if Bridges is ever involved in violent conduct again, the Hornets should be held to account for the decision to bring him back.]
Charlotte Has Talent Upside from Several Recent Draft Picks
Over the course of the last few drafts, the Hornets have managed to find some quality players. I’ll go through them quickly.
Brandon Miller, taken #2 overall in the 2023 draft, is the obvious headliner, as he put together a very productive rookie season despite the team’s big roster changes. Miller, who finished third in Rookie of the Year voting behind Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren, is a 6’9” wing with great length, solid athletic attributes, and a penchant for scoring. He averaged over 17 points per game on robust shooting numbers of 44.0% from the field, 37.3% from three, and 82.7% from the line. Though Miller is really a secondary creator and perimeter shooter, he bore a substantial offensive load for a rookie—his 23.6% usage rate was second on the team to LaMelo Ball. Still, Miller finished in the 70th percentile of players league-wide in Offensive EPM. That’s very impressive for a rookie thrown into a tough situation, particularly when you consider that the Hornets didn’t get much consistency out of the point guard position (Ball was injured, and Terry Rozier and Vasilije Micić were only on the team for 30 games each). With a year of experience under his belt and an elite passer like Ball in the backcourt, there’s potential for Miller to thrive in his second season as he shifts to a role more focused on movement shooting and second side shot creation.
Charlotte also hit on the Mark Williams pick (taken #15 in 2022) if he can stay healthy. I’ve already talked about what Williams brings on both ends of the floor, and if he can stay healthy, he’ll have a chance to get even better in coming years.
The Hornets’ two other first round picks are less certain, but there’s reason for some optimism. Let’s start with this year’s #6 overall pick, forward Tidjane Salaün.
Because he’s only 18 years old, Salaün’s future is fundamentally based on projection right now. Physically, the French forward already looks the part of a prototypical modern NBA four. He’s 6’9” (without shoes), 217 pounds, and sports a 7’2” wingspan, and he demonstrated good athleticism and consistent, tremendous effort while playing for Cholet Basket in the French pro league. He’s also quite raw right now, and his production wasn’t all that impressive (Salaün averaged just 9.2 points and 4.0 rebounds per game last season). Given the physical tools and effort, it’s fair to project him as a strong defender. He also projects as a solid three-point shooter. While he only hit 33% of threes last season, he’s a willing shooter at 4.2 threes per game, his form looks good, and his 77% shooting mark from the free throw line suggests there’s some potential. While it may take Salaün a bit of time to develop, the raw tools look promising.
Like Salaün, Nick Smith Jr. (taken #27 in 2023) is a big question mark, too. Smith Jr. has decent physical tools for a 2-guard, but he struggled quite a bit to generate his quality offense both during his freshman season at Arkansas and his rookie year with the Hornets last season. Given his pedestrian play last year and his late first round pedigree, it’s tough to project Smith for the same type of future gains as a guy like Salaün, but Smith did show some things last year. Most notably, Smith knocked down over 43% of his 146 three-point attempts last season—if he can keep that up and find a way to league-average defense (possible given his 6’5” size), he’ll have a role on the Hornets for sure.
Recent Trades Shed Quality Veterans, But Charlotte Got Back Younger Potential and Important Draft Capital
With the team struggling on the court the past two seasons, the Hornets opted to enter several different trades designed to get back younger players and accrue future draft capital. Check out the deals below from the past two years:
At the 2023 trade deadline, the Hornets traded Mason Plumlee to the Clippers for Reggie Jackson and a future second round pick, waiving Jackson just a few days later.
The Hornets traded Terry Rozier to Miami for a future first round pick and Kyle Lowry, who was bought out by the Hornets shortly afterward and never played for the team.
This offseason, the Hornets got in on the NBA’s first-ever six team trade and acquired 23-year-old guard Josh Green, Reggie Jackson (again), and a couple future second round picks in exchange for Philadelphia’s 2025 second round pick and cash.
Through the five trades, the Hornets managed to snag three young players in Josh Green (23), Grant Williams (25), and Tre Mann (23) who still haven’t maximized their potential despite multiple years in the league, two future first rounders from Dallas and Miami, and a couple future second rounders. To do so, they gave up PJ Washington (25), who never really moved the needle in 5 years with the Hornets, Charlotte; and several players whose timelines didn’t match the rest of the roster in Terry Rozier (30), Mason Plumlee (34), and Gordon Hayward (34), who just retired the other day.
It’s hard to argue against the logic. In effect, the Hornets gave themselves looks at three younger guys with more upside plus snagged two future firsts, and they didn’t give up any core players to do it.
While Josh Green and Grant Williams haven’t performed consistently enough throughout their careers to date, they’ve both shown the capability to be strong 3-and-D players that should fit nicely with the team’s talented offensive core of LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller.
Grant Williams has proven he can be a plus defender capable of guarding wings and bigs, or even switching onto guards at times. During his first two years in Boston, Williams posted excellent Defensive EPMs of 1.2 and 0.7, good for 80th percentile league-wide in both years. While he hasn’t performed to that level since then (last year was a bit of a mess in particular), he still posted a solid Defensive EPM of 0.5 (72nd percentile) as recently as 2023. On the other end of the floor, Williams isn’t a world-beater offensively, but he can at least fill a clear role as a spacer. He’s hit almost 38% of his threes for his career and managed to put up a respectable 13.9 points per game in his 29 games with the Hornets last year. He’s under contract for the next 3 years for just $40.9 million, too.
Green has never shown the same defensive chops as Grant Williams, but he’s been a respectable wing defender at times in his own right. Green is smaller than Williams, but he’s shown the ability to cover attacking guards and wings on the perimeter, even if he’s not a top tier point of attack defender. He’s also much more of a threat with the ball in his hands, a bit more versatile in general offensively than Williams, and willing to get up the floor quickly in transition, an important skill when playing with a point guard like Ball. He’s also a capable outside shooter, having knocked down about 38% of his threes for his career. Green is also on a very reasonable medium-term deal with 3 years and $41 million remaining—almost a mirror image of the Williams contract.
Tre Mann was also a nice get for the Hornets, though he fills a slightly different role. Drafted by OKC with #18 pick in the 2021 draft, Mann didn’t have many opportunities to shine behind elite young talents like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, but after joining the Hornets last year, he put up the best numbers of his short career. In 28 games with Charlotte last season, Mann averaged 11.9 points, 5.2 assists, and 4.5 rebounds per game (18.9/8.2/7.1 per 100 possessions) and managed respectable shooting numbers of 45.3% from the field, 36.4% from three, and 75.9% from the line. While Mann’s numbers last year won’t blow anyone away at a glance, they do help show that he has some untapped potential, which makes sense for a player his age. Getting Mann, Vasilije Micić, multiple future seconds, and cash for Gordon Hayward, who retired roughly 5 months later, is incredible value—and the Hornets will get the chance to see if Mann can continue to take strides next year at the bargain price of $4.9 million in salary as a result.
There Are Paths Here to Long-Term Success and Contention
Charlotte has two high-potential talents already on the roster in LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller. The most important question to whether the Hornets will get to contention with this roster is how high of a ceiling they can hit. That’s pretty much always the case for young teams, though, especially in small markets.
Ball has already shown he can be an All-Star level offensive hub. Whether Ball can elevate himself to an All-NBA level player who can anchor a future contender remains to be seen, but he only turns 24 this month. There’s room for growth. Ball needs to stay healthy and give more consistent effort defensively. You also hope he can play with just a touch more structure offensively to help the guys around him be more consistent. The development seems well within reach if he’s able to stay on the court.
Miller may not have quite the same ceiling as Ball, but he’s already proven himself to be a capable scorer. His outside shooting is already exceptional for a wing with his size, and he can get to his shots off the bounce or off movement effectively. If he can improve his playmaking, he could easily be an All-Star. Continued defensive development is critical, too. He’ll need to be a two-way contributor to reach his highest potential, but he’s got the physical tools to do it. He’s also just 21, so like with Ball, there’s plenty of growth potential.
The rest of the roster is in solid shape, too. In terms of on-the-court fit, they’ve got youth, defense and hustle, and upside potential in guys like Mark Williams, Tidjane Salaün, Grant Williams, Tre Mann, and Josh Green. They have capable rotation players in Nick Richards, Cody Martin, and Vasilije Micić. They have Miles Bridges, too—and it’s possible he can get his career back on track after a self-inflicted step backward.
The Cap Sheet Is Clean, Which Gives the Hornets Options
The Hornets roster construction and cap situation also means the Hornets aren’t locked into bad deals for basically anyone. While not as important as on-court performance, it’s easy to overlook the importance of roster and cap management. The team has tremendous flexibility to experiment, see who fits and how, and give playing time to the guys who can best complement Ball and Miller. Guys who work, they can keep on fair (or even team friendly) deals. Guys who don’t can get traded, and probably for solid return.
Look at the cap sheet below, which shows the year-by-year contract amounts for each player on Charlotte’s roster and the estimated percentage of the cap each player takes up to see what I mean:
[Based on data from Spotrac and assumes maximum 10% growth of salary cap, luxury tax line, and aprons each season due to new NBA TV deals]
Several things jump out from the Hornet’s cap sheet for the next five years.
Other than LaMelo Ball, the Hornets have few long-term contracts that take up significant cap space. Even LaMelo’s contract looks quite reasonable as a percentage of the cap going forward (assuming health), he will be worth between 22-25% of the cap only. For comparison, that’s a bit less cap space than what OG Anunoby will use; players like Trae Young and Zach Lavine will each command about 30.6% of the cap this year.
The Hornets have five guys on rookie deals (Brandon Miller, Tidjane Salaün, Mark Williams, Nick Smith Jr., and Tre Mann). Rookie contracts are hugely valuable both because they are relatively cheap and give the team significant control.
That means they don’t take up a ton of cap space (Brandon Miller is the most expensive, but only takes up 8-9% of the cap in any given season).
It also means the Hornets have an advantage to re-signing them through restricted free agency if they want to bring them back. Tre Mann is the most obvious candidate here, as his RFA status in the 2025 off-season is likely going to tamp down his market for potential deals even if he plays well next season.
The other veteran contracts make sense.
Miles Bridges is getting starter money, but his salary declines each season. His contract should get more valuable over time if he plays even at the lower 2023-24 levels. The contract makes him more trade-able down the line if the Hornets want to move on.
Grant Williams and Josh Green’s salaries are less than 10% of the cap each year. That’s good for the Hornets, as both are rotation players who could develop into starters. The player/contract combos for both are also potentially attractive to other teams, who might offer the Hornets something valuable in trade down the line.
Martin and Micić take up just 5-6% of the cap over the next couple seasons, but the Hornets can move on from either one if they want to create cap space for free agents next season. Martin’s deal non-guaranteed after this season, and the team will have the option to bring back Micić or not. Nick Richards’ contract takes up even less cap space and is also not guaranteed.
The Hornets can create significant cap space next summer if they want to. By waiving the non-guaranteed contracts for Martin and Richards and declining the team option for Micić, the Hornets can create over $35 million in cap room next offseason. They could get over $41 million in cap room by also declining the team option for Mark Williams.
The Hornets have a bunch of players on tradable contracts.
The varying salary levels for Bridges ($23-27 million), Green/Grant Williams ($13-15 million), and Martin/Micić ($7-9 million) are all at salary levels that could make them attractive to a team looking to add pieces. That gives them trade value.
In addition, the varied salary levels of those players gives the Hornets lots of options for salary matching in a trade if needed. Combined with draft capital, that can be a powerful trade tool.
Even at his bigger salary, if the Hornets ever wanted to trade Ball, there would probably be a decent market for him. All-Star-level talents don’t always become available, and Ball is locked in long-term at a reasonable cap number.
The players on rookie deals could draw a significant interest because they are cost controlled. Miller could net a particularly large haul if the Hornets for some reason needed to deal him (not that they should).
Lots of Future Draft Assets Make Big Swings Possible
By default, before trades, NBA teams each have 7 first round picks available to trade (one in each draft). A few teams have an absurd number of future picks—for example, the Thunder and Jazz have 15 or more. But the Hornets are in a pretty good spot, with 9 future first round picks available assuming they keep their 2025 pick. The chart below summarizes their draft pick situation:
Charlotte controls most of their own first round picks here, except 2025. If the Hornets surprise and actually make the playoffs this season, they’d lose their 2025 first round pick but presumably be happy with the result. More likely, they aren’t yet ready to win a playoff berth and hold onto their 2025 first rounder (they’d lose second rounders in 2026 and 2027 but that’s fine, incoming seconds from the Sixers in 2025 and Blazers or Pelicans in 2027 offset that mostly).
They also have incoming picks from Dallas and Miami. The Dallas pick has very light protections (top 2), so it’s probably going to wind up in Charlotte even if Dallas were to take a step backward. The Miami pick has more protections at first, as it’s lottery protected, and only conveyable if Miami’s 2025 first rounder actually conveys to the Thunder next year. But, Charlotte will eventually end up with a first rounder from Miami no matter what—they may just have to wait until 2028.
The fact that Charlotte has these nine future first round picks matters quite a bit. Because they have enough picks, they can theoretically trade up to six first round picks to bolster their roster. Combined with the young players on trade-matchable contracts (Miles Bridges, Josh Green, and Grant Williams specifically), the Hornets can make a big swing for an All-Star level talent if one comes available and they want to. For a small-market team that may not have a chance to attract top-tier free agents, that’s an important option to have on the table.
They could also use their bevy of future firsts in other ways, like taking smaller swings on pieces that fit with their core as it develops or (GASP) actually using their picks in future drafts. The point isn’t so much that they will do anything in particular, it’s that they have the option to make decisions based on whether they want to make a deal—not whether they have to make a deal because of a roster or cap crunch.
In a Good Place
Ultimately, I think the Hornets are in a nice spot. Like any non-playoff team, they have big questions to answer. The most critical question is how high the ceiling is for talent they have when healthy, but that question is true for almost every non-contender. There are narrower, more discrete questions they need to answer first. Health for Ball and Mark Williams, the continued development of young guys like Miller and Salaün, and getting past Miles Bridges’ off-the-court issues are the most apparent, and I believe the team has positioned itself well to answer those questions and be able to pivot if they don’t like how the results come back.
In all, I’m excited to see what’s next for the Hornets. If the team can stay healthy, they should be fun to watch on the court, and they’ve got a ton of room to improve quickly.
How Did the SBC Mock Trade Deadline Go?
I mentioned that my SBC team was assigned the Hornets for a mock trade deadline exercise. We considered a crazy number of deals, but we really liked a few that came available when other teams decided to make moves. We made three notable trades:
Traded for Alperen Şengün
To get this deal done, we had to trade Mark Williams, Charlotte’s 2027 first round pick, Dallas’ 2027 first round pick (top 2 protected), and 3 second round picks to Houston in exchange for Şengün. Şengün is only 22 and already an offensive wizard. Though he has some defensive limitations and is going to get a big contract starting next year, it’s hard to find this kind of young talent. I was happy we could get him without giving up a ton of future draft capital.
Traded for De’Anthony Melton
This was my favorite deal, though it was a smaller swing. We traded away Seth Curry and Reggie Jackson (at the time of the exercise, he hadn’t been bought out by Charlotte yet) to the Warriors in exchange for Melton. Melton is a strong defender and good shooter who would fit nicely will Ball and Miller. With Green on the roster, we felt OK with Melton’s injury risk from back issues.
Recouped Draft Capital
We somehow also managed to snag an unprotected first round pick by trading away Nick Richards and taking on some salary. We traded Nick Richards to the Suns in exchange for Cleveland’s 2027 first (unprotected), which the Suns acquired in a separate deal during the mock exercise, 3 second round picks, and Nasir Little. While this left us thin in the front court, it was hard to say no to replenishing almost all our draft assets from the Şengün deal.
Let me know what you think in the comments of the deals!
And here are some photos from SBC just for fun:
