Five Favorites: 2024 NBA Draft

I’ve been out on vacation so I’m sorry this post is a bit delayed. But with the NBA Draft coming up on June 26, it’s about time to talk about some of the prospects I’m interested in ahead of draft night.

The 2024 NBA Draft class has been panned as relatively weak compared to prior years, but a lot of that criticism is really pointed toward the top of the draft. In general, draft observers don’t seem to think there’s much in the way of clear All-Star level talent and there really isn’t consensus on who the top players even are. Forward Zaccharie Risacher (JL Bourg) and center Alex Sarr (Perth Wildcats) seem to top most big boards, but you’ll also see Stephon Castle (UConn), Donovan Clingan (UConn), Reed Sheppard (Kentucky), and even Nikola Topic (Mega) near the top of some rankings. G League Ignite prospects Ron Holland and Matas Buzelis have even spent time atop the rankings.

The lack of clarity at the top of the draft makes for some interesting potential draft scenarios. Without consensus around who the best players are, it’s likely we’ll see teams with really substantially different draft boards. That can always be the case of course, but in a year where projection and preferences for particular skills will likely trump pure talent, it’s much more likely. Combine that with the fact that some teams will value traits or potential upside while others will try to find established players with a definite NBA skill that can contribute immediately, and we may see a fair number of trades on draft night as teams get a feel for how the rest of the league views the draft class.

Still, the lack of obvious high-end talent doesn’t mean there won’t be quality players available, particularly for teams looking to fill specific roles. The dearth of clear future All-Stars is a big concern for teams that in the rebuilding phase who are near the top of the draft—for example, the Wizards and Hornets probably just need to stack talent—but teams that are looking to supplement their rosters or fill particular needs to support a playoff push can still find those players. For example, teams like the Rockets, Grizzlies, Thunder, Bulls, and Kings all have lottery picks, but they’re (mostly) not so desperate for talent that they need to take big swings on high-upside players. Instead, most of those teams probably will (and probably should) focus on bolstering their existing cores with players who bring specific skills they need on cost-controlled rookie contracts.

With all that said, I want to talk about five players from this draft that I’m high on. These aren’t necessarily the “best” players in the draft, rather they’re players that I’ve come to like a lot relative to how they’re being discussed. Some of these guys bring high upside while others will fill important roles even if they never become stars—something that’s more and more as the 2023 CBA rules kick in and encourage teams to focus on rounding out their rosters with cheaper role players.

Let’s get started!

Stephon Castle (PG/SG, UConn)

Expected Draft Range: #2 to #8

I’m not certain Stephon Castle is the highest ceiling player in this year’s draft, but if you asked me to bet on one player to be high-level contributor in the NBA, he’s the guy I’m picking. At just 19 years old, Castle helped lead the UConn Huskies through a dominating National Title run this past March as a freshman. Not only is he a reliable contributor with a varied skillset, he’s a top-tier competitor who's willing to embrace all challenges leaps off the screen when you watch him play. He may not be a perfect prospect, but I’ll take a guy like Castle who works his tail off and stays attuned the details any day of the week.

What Caught My Eye: Competitiveness on Defense

While Castle wasn’t necessarily UConn’s best player or even its most important defender (both honors probably go to Donovan Clingan), Castle quickly established himself as a strong defensive presence during his lone season at UConn. At 6’6” (with a 6’9” wingspan) and 210 pounds, he has the size, strength, and length to guard a huge range of perimeter players, and he’s also got solid quickness and athleticism for his size.

The physical tools are apparent when you watch Castle play, but his competitiveness really stands out. Even on a UConn team chock full of quality defenders, Castle stood out for his effort on the perimeter. That was apparent than in UConn’s championship game against Purdue, where Castle basically ran a 1-man full court press against Purdue point guards for the entire game (except a stretch in the first where Castle instead was tasked with guarding Purdue’s starting power forward). Seriously, go back and watch the game—Castle was picking up defensively at 75 feet after every made basket. By the time the second half rolled around, Purdue’s guards could barely initiate their offense until 15 seconds had run off the shot clock. Castle’s dogged effort helped the Huskies hold Purdue’s starting backcourt to just 6-20 shooting (30%), paving the way for an easy Connecticut win despite a stand-out performance by All-American center Zach Edey.

Castle isn’t yet a perfect defensive player, but you can see his want-to and consistent effort all over the tape. He does a great job of staying in front of drivers and using his hands to slow movement without fouling too much. He consistently keeps his hands up on-ball to contest passing lanes. He routinely makes second efforts to contest shots and does a great job with verticality, using his length to bother shooters without risking fouling. He also will anticipate passes to create turnovers and get out in transition, though this something I’d like to see him do a bit more often. Check out the quick cut up below for some examples:

The areas Castle needs to improve on defensively are also relatively minor. The only substantial “concern” is that Castle didn’t quite have the steals numbers you’d expect from a player of his defensive caliber (just 0.8 steals per game). He also will need to refine some aspects of his positioning defensively. He can occasionally lose sight of screeners, which can result in him sometimes getting caught on screens he’s athletic enough to avoid. He also can sometimes get too vertical in his stance, forcing him to lose out on a first step and recover. He’s not as consistent about keeping his hands up in passing lanes when guarding off-ball. But these are nit-picky points, and areas he can certainly improve upon as a pro. The key is that Castle’s defensive effort was consistent, obvious, and critical to his team’s success.

I see a bit of Marcus Smart at Oklahoma State in Castle’s defensive style (physical strength with long arms) and consistent effort. If Castle can turn his effort and relentlessness on defense into the type of high-level defense that Smart displayed in Boston, he’s going to have a long career in the league.

Offensive Development Will Set the Ceiling

I don’t worry about Castle on defense given his college track record, but whether he turns into a high-level starter or future All-Star will turn based on whether he can continue to develop offensively. Castle played mostly a secondary offensive role for UConn last season, as his 11.1 points and 2.9 assists per game ranked fifth and third on the team respectively. Still, Castle flashed a lot of upside in a variety of ways, and there’s no question in my mind that he has the tools to develop into a solid down-hill scorer and secondary playmaker (it’s possible he’ll eventually become a primary ball handler, but I think that may be a stretch).

Castle’s best offensive weapon is his ability to get into the paint and finish, where his size and strength allows him to finish at and around the rim in a bunch of different ways. When he drives, Castle does a great job of getting all the way to the rim, and he’s strong enough to consistently finish through contact. He can also hit runners when he needs to, and he’s shown some ability to finish with floaters, baby-hooks, and up-and-unders when needed. You’ll often see Castle attack defenders aggressively off the dribble, and he can go to both to his strong-hand and weak-hand side, though he has a tendency to go back to his right hand when trying to finish. But he has shown the ability to stop and pop going left and spin back into half-hooks, though, so he isn’t without options if defenders cut off his strong hand.

Unlike most 19 year olds, Castle effectively recognizes how to play to his strengths. I already mentioned his ability to drive the lane, but he also creates paint touches by weaving in frequent basket cuts and by getting out quickly into transition. In those situations, Castle is able to capitalize on his strong finishing at the rim lets to get easy opportunities. His willingness to cut also contributes to his offensive rebounding rate of 7.8% per Sports Reference, outstanding for a guard, and creates opportunities for him to get to the free throw line, where he took a respectable 7.3 free throw attempts per 100 possessions and hit over 75% his attempts. I also like that Castle will, at times, look to take advantage of his physical size by posting up smaller players. He’s comfortable playing with his back to the basket and can dribble or pass out of the mid-post effectively, which is uncommon for young guards.

I also love that, despite never being the primary offensive option at UConn, Castle bought into the system fully and never become a sticking point offensively. A lot of young guards tend to hold the ball too long, as they’re used to being the central offensive player—but that’s not Castle. He’s a willing passer who gets off the ball quickly, even if the pass isn’t likely to lead to a direct scoring opportunity. He also has good vision, consistently finding open cutters and three point shooters, and even flashing the ability to make some creative passes in traffic or off of dribble-drives. He didn’t run a ton of pick and rolls at UConn, but you can see flashes of his talent there too, as he looks to find good angles to get the ball into rolling bigs. Castle’s passing is going to be effectively early in an off-ball role, but if he can continue to develop his passing skills and court vision, he’s got a chance to reach much higher levels as a player. Since Castle is focusing on playing point guard in the NBA, developing those skills is going to be critical.

The biggest question mark I have for Castle offensively is whether he’s ever going to develop a credible outside jumper. Though he’s far from a finished product as a shooter, he hit just under 27% of his threes on a low volume of 4.9 attempts per 100 possessions. That’s not going to cut it, and NBA teams will sag off of him aggressively and gum up the interior if he can’t improve his outside shooting. He’ll also struggle with attracting enough attention during ball screens/pick and rolls if he can’t be a threat to score outside. With that said, Castle’s form isn’t broken and his solid free throw shooting gives some hope that he’ll be able to make strides and become at least an average outside shooter in time.

Ultimately, Castle’s defensive talent and physical traits are going to ensure he’s a high lottery pick and ensure he gets playing time early on in his career. He’s also already got enough offensive talent to find ways to be a solid contributor on that end for years to come. But if Castle can continue to build on his passing game, improve his outside shooting, and tighten his handle, he’s got a good chance to become an effective scorer and playmaker. Lead guard potential is definitely there. And if Castle can find a way to marry his downhill attack skills with plus outside shooting, his ceiling is as high as anyone else’s in the draft.

Devin Carter (PG/SG, Providence)

Expected Draft Range: #8 to to #15

Devin Carter (age 22) is a 6’3”, 193 pound point guard from Providence and the son of former NBA player Anthony Carter. Despite having relatively little height for a guard, Carter has really long arms that give him a tremendous 6’9” wingspan. He’s also a premier athlete, even amongst NBA prospects—he posted a 42” max vertical jump (including a 35” standing vertical jump) and a 2.87 second 3/4-court sprint, all of which led all participants in the 2024 NBA Combine. Carter won Big East Player of the Year this past season and has a ton of quality playing experience; plus, he’s made major strides in virtually every facet of his game during his three seasons in college (first at South Carolina, before he transferred to Providence for his sophomore and junior seasons).

What Caught My Eye: Elite Defense

You may be able to sense a bit of a theme in what I like to see traits-wise between Castle and Carter. They’re both absolute dogs on defense, and they will compete hard on every possession regardless of what’s happening on the offensive side of the court. They both also have the physical traits to hold up on the defensive end as players get bigger, faster, and stronger moving up to the NBA game. For most draft prospects (few of whom profile as potential All-Stars), defense and physical traits are really critical as they can be brought to bear immediately. Few teams are going to give rookies the freedom to dominate the ball offensively unless (A) the rookie profiles as a future All Star and/or (B) the team isn’t trying to compete.

Even though he’s not quite as big and strong as Stephon Castle, Carter still looks the part of a stellar perimeter defender, especially against guards. Though he’s only 6’3”, Carter’s incredible wingspan helps make him a tremendous contributor defensively. Most notably, he’s an elite rebounder for a guard, averaging over 14 rebounds per 100 possessions last year with a staggering 23.7% defensive rebounding rate, tops in the entire Big East per Sports Reference (Carter was 10th in the conference in rebounding rate overall). On top of the rebounding, Carter generates a ton of steals and blocks despite his smaller stature. Across his entire collegiate career, Carter has averaged 3 steals and 1.6 blocks per 100 possessions, outstanding figures for any player—much less a smaller guard.

Carter has very good lateral agility and moves his feet well, but what sets him apart as an on-ball defender is his anticipation and recovery. He does a fantastic job of navigating screens, identifying when opposing players are looking to shoot, and finding his way into passing lanes. A huge portion of Carter’s “stocks” (steals and blocks) happen as a result of his elite anticipation, high-level athleticism, and unexpected length—he seems to regularly get near balls that offensive players don’t anticipate him getting to. Take a look at a few examples below:

Carter’s defense is going to be his calling card in the NBA and will be the skill that gets him time on the court early. He’s got great instincts, timing, and anticipation, plus the physical tools to match up better with NBA guards than recent defensive-oriented point guards like Davion Mitchell and Tre Jones.

How Real Is the Shot?

Carter averaged 19.7 points per game last year for the Friars as a junior. He’s got the ability to score in a variety of different ways despite not necessarily having a single offensive skill that is dominant. He does a good job of touching the paint regularly, and when he gets in the lane he can score with either hand and off one or two feet, which will give him good flexibility against NBA defenders. He also took advantage of his high usage rate by getting to the line frequently (he averaged 9.2 free throws per 100 possessions for his collegiate career) and hits them at a solid rate.

But Carter’s offensive explosion this past season was driven principally by a dramatic increase in his long-range shooting. As a freshman, Carter hit 26.7% of his threes on 5.9 attempts per 100 possessions. That improved slightly his sophomore year, where he shot 29.9% from three on 6.5 attempts per 100 possessions. This last season, though, Carter’s average jumped all the way to 37.7% on 11.2 attempts per 100 possessions, a dramatic increase. That kind of jump isn’t unprecedented, but it’s definitely notable—especially when considering Carter’s shooting mechanics are a bit unorthodox. Still, throw on any game from the 2023-24 season and you’ll regularly see Carter pulling from distance, sometimes as a spot up shooter but often off the dribble. It’s hard to be the primary offensive option and still take/make so many threes from a variety of floor positions as well as off the dribble, and Carter did so reliably this past year. I’m inclined to buy the improvement as real, but that’s really the key question.

If Carter’s three point shooting is real, he’s going to have an immediate role for NBA teams as a 3-and-D option. Given his age and experience, I don’t see Carter as having the same offensive ceiling as Stephon Castle—he’s has fewer tools for finishing around the rim given his lack of size, and Carter’s playmaking for others doesn’t stand out as much. But Carter’s shown, for at least a year, that he can be a real threat to score on the perimeter, which is incredibly valuable for someone with his defensive talents. I’d love to see Carter paired with a reliable shot-creator so that he can really develop into an elite 3-and-D guard in the mold of Derrick White.

Cody Williams (SF, Colorado)

Expected Draft Range: #5 to #15

Of the players in my Five Favorites, Cody Williams’ NBA future probably involves the most projection. The younger brother of Oklahoma City star Jalen Williams, Cody played just one season for the Colorado Buffaloes before opting to enter the NBA draft. He played in just 24 games as a freshman this season due to several injuries (including wrist and ankle injuries and a fractured orbital bone), and his numbers when he played were a bit of a mixed bag. Williams averaged just 11.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game, and he turned the ball over too often at an average of 2.0 times per game. But his shooting numbers were well above average, though they came on limited volume—Williams shot 55.2% from the field (16.5 field goal attempts per 100 possessions) and 41.5% from three (3.5 three point attempts per 100 possessions); he shot a more lackluster 71.4% from the free throw line (6.6 free throw attempts per 100 possessions).

Physically, Williams has some pretty interesting traits, although he will need to continue to add strength and bulk to be most effective. At 6’7”, Cody is a bit taller than older brother Jalen, and he also has an impressive wingspan just like his brother (7’1” for Cody versus 7’2” for Jalen). But while Jalen came into the league weighing almost 210 pounds, Cody still has a long way to go to bulk up—he weighed just under 180 pounds at the NBA Combine, quite light for someone his height. Of course, Cody is only 19 years old (Jalen was 21 when he was drafted), so it’s fair to expect the younger Williams brother to add weight and strength after joining the NBA. Cody Williams also showed solid-but-not spectacular athleticism numbers at the combine, notably posting a top-10 time for the 3/4 court sprint and a respectable max vertical of 35”. The jumping numbers in particular could improve as he adds strength, but at his height and with his length, he doesn’t need to improve much. While Cody may never boast the same strength and bulk as older brother Jalen, there’s no real question that Jalen has the physical tools to play at the NBA level. If Cody can develop enough physically to be in the same ballpark as his brother, which I think is likely, he’s going to have more than adequate physical tools to succeed in the NBA.

What Caught My Eye: Amazing Touch

As a true freshman, Cody Williams didn’t always stand out on the court. His defense was generally respectable, but it’s obvious he needs to add strength. And while his offense numbers were decent, they didn’t stand out. He was more of a facilitator and secondary option for Colorado than a pillar of their offensive sets. But Williams showed flashes of high-level NBA talent working around the rim and in the paint, especially before he suffered his several injuries.

Take a look at the wide variety of finishing moves that Williams has in the clip below:

Williams has a bag around the rim, with floaters, half hooks, and scoop shots to get up quality looks even when he can’t quite get to the rim. These are tough shots that most guys don’t even attempt. Williams tries them regularly, and he still managed to hit nearly 59% of his two point shots during an injury-plauged season. That’s seriously impressive stuff that you don’t often see, especially when you consider how much strength he’s giving up at this stage of his career. It also seems repeatable at the NBA level. While Williams will need to add strength to get past NBA defenders, if/when that strength comes, he’s going to have enough size and length to get these kinds of looks even against NBA wings—there just aren’t many guys who can keep up with wing players and contest shots against a 6’7” wing player with great length like Williams.

Jalen Williams entered the NBA a stronger player and better playmaker than Cody will, but we can’t forget Cody’s just 19. If he can develop at all as a ball-handler and push up his three point volume (while maintaining a respectable percentage), he’s going to be able to generate looks going toward the rim—and with his finishing touch, he’s a good bet to be an effective scorer.

Can Williams Be a Playmaker?

Williams has a solid feel for the game, but right now his playmaking is ability is still quite limited. That’s generally not a huge deal for a young, developing wing player, but it would be nice to see Williams improve his court vision and ball-handling skills sooner than later. Last season, he posted an assist-to-turnover ratio below 1.0, which is pretty poor even for a pure wing. Better play-making would substantially improve Williams’ overall offensive value and likely open up scoring lanes for him as well.

Williams does flash the ability to pass effectively. In transition and when in the open-court, he does a good job of keeping his head up when advancing via the dribble, so he can make some nice hit-ahead passes to rim-runners or shooters in the corner. In the few occasions where he was the pick and roll ball handler, he was able to keep his eyes up pretty well for some nice passes to the roller or a weak side cutter. If he can make those types of reads more consistently and avoid turnovers, it’s possible he could become a solid secondary playmaker.

Ultimately, the most likely scenario is that Williams turns into a third or fourth option on the wing, so he’s not likely to have the ball in his hands incredibly frequently. That kind of role would mitigate any concerns about his lack of elite play-making ability, but if he’s truly going to hit his ceiling, he needs to have effective alternatives for when teams cut off his scoring opportunities.

Developing Strength Will Maximize the Defense

Based on his physical traits, you’d like to project Williams as a solid wing defender in time (his brother has certainly turned similar physical traits into plus perimeter defense in OKC). As expected, Cody’s length lets him contest shots even when he’s out of position, and he posted a respectable block rate of 2.4% last year. He also shows good lateral agility and the ability to mirror and slide with wings and most guards. Unfortunately, the lack of strength is a real issue. I hate to sound like a broken record, but unless and until Cody Williams can add weight and strength, he’s not going to live up to his defensive potential in the NBA. It’s far too easy for players to get into Williams’ chest and bump him off his spot, and there are a number of guards and wings in the NBA who are going to exploit that weakness routinely. Plus, until he bulks up, Williams is going to be extremely over-matched against NBA power forwards, which will prevent teams from taking advantage of the positional versatility his height might otherwise offer.

The lack of strength also hurts Williams enormously on the glass. He pulled down just 2.3 rebounds per game, which is poor for a forward, much less one with a 7’1” wingspan (Devin Carter averaged more than 3 times as many rebounds at just 6’3, for reference). That kind of poor rebounding is borderline unacceptable for an NBA wing, so Williams will have to find a way to address it.

If Williams had shown more aggression and physicality on defense during the season, I’d be very comfortable penciling him in as a plus defender. But unfortunately he didn’t always do that, so his defensive projection depends heavily on whether he can build up his physical strength. If he gets stronger, you see enough other defensive traits on tape (length, movement skills, and awareness) that you can imagine him becoming a plus perimeter defender.

Jared McCain (PG/SG, Duke)

Expected Draft Range: #10 to #20

As a freshman, Jared McCain played a central role for a quality Duke team, averaging 14.3 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.1 steals with high-level shooting splits (46.2% from the field / 41.1% from three / 88.5% from the free throw line) and just 1.3 turnovers per game. At 6’2” (without shoes) and 203 pounds, he’s got adequate size if he can play point guard, but he would be undersized if he’s really a shooting guard. His wingspan isn’t ideal at just 6’3.5”, but he has a respectable 8’2” standing reach.

While McCain is projected to go in the late lottery or shortly afterward, his position, production, on-court strengths/weaknesses, shooting, age, and physical traits look eerily similar to Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard, who is expected to go in the top 5. Sheppard is a better passer, a bit bouncier, and generated more STOCKs than McCain, but it wouldn’t shock me if McCain ends up the better value given his likely draft position.

What Caught My Eye: Shooting, Shooting, Shooting

McCain’s shooting is really what sets him apart from most other prospects—other than Sheppard, you’d be hard pressed to find as good of a shooter in this year’s draft. McCain hit over 41% from three last season on high volume (11.0 three point attempts per 100 possessions). It’s basically impossible for a starter to reach that kind of three point volume without taking some tough threes, and McCain didn’t disappoint in that respect—throw on almost any Duke game from last season and you’ll see McCain hitting an assortment of difficult threes off movement, in transition, and off the dribble. Check out the clip below, you’ll see McCain hit just about every kind of three imaginable, including in high-leverage situations:

That kind of shooting talent can really stretch a defense. You see defenders routinely panic and rush at McCain, and the gravity his three point shot creates is key to McCain’s ability to win off the dribble. He doesn’t have the quickest first step around and he’s not an Uber-athlete, so McCain has to leverage close-outs to consistently beat defenders to the paint. He’s pretty good at that, and he deploys several different finishes off two feet to help mitigate his size limitations.

Can He Be More Than a Scorer?

As with other small guards in the draft class like Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillignham, it would be unfair to expect McCain to develop into a force defensively given his lack of length, size, or top tier athleticism. But I think McCain nonetheless has a good chance to be a competent NBA defender if he can work on his foot speed and anticipation. At 203 pounds, McCain is actually a lot sturdier than most guards his size—he’s strong and doesn’t shy away from contact. He also plays sound defense in general. He communicates, slides his feet, sees man and ball, plays passing lanes, and has a good feel when to help off his responsibility. He tends to get a little too upright at times and can do a better job navigating screens, but those things are teachable things. Although McCain’s probably never going have the quickness to match up well with speedy point guards like Ja Morant or De’Aaron Fox, if he can pair his elite shooting with even slightly above average defense, he’s going to have a long career.

Another way for McCain to secure a place in NBA rotations would be to develop himself more as a traditional point guard. I’m not convinced that’s his natural position, but he’ll get more time on the floor if he can take on secondary ball-handling and playmaking duties like an Andrew Nembhard or Reggie Jackson (or at least be good enough to play a backup role). McCain wasn’t asked to run the offense frequently at Duke—Jeremy Roach and Tyrese Proctor handled much more of that responsibility—instead, he was given more of a scoring and spacing role. Whether that was because McCain isn’t good at handling point guard duties or because Duke preferred to have him in an off-ball role given his shooting isn’t clear, but either way, McCain needs to show more. 1.9 assists per game isn’t going to cut it for him at the NBA level, even if he maintains low turnover rate. The good news is that you can find instances of McCain making good reads off of screens and hitting tight-window pocket passes, and he does a good job of keeping his head up in the half-court to find cutters, so there’s no doubt he has tools to develop. He’ll just need to do it.

DaRon Holmes II

Expected Draft Range: #15 to #30

DaRon Holmes II (age 21), a center from Dayton, started 102 games for the Flyers over his three college seasons.  Last year, Holmes’ statistical production reached elite levels as averaged 20.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 2.1 blocks per game—nice numbers for anyone even though Dayton was in a relatively weak conference.  Like most bigs, Holmes put up strong shooting numbers from two-point range, hitting 58.5% of those shots (61.4% for his career).  He also showed he can step out and hit threes, where he shot 38.6% on about 2.5 attempts per game.  If the three-point shooting is sticks, he fills a role that many NBA teams covet: a floor-spacing big who can protect the basket and rebound.

Though Holmes played the vast majority of his minutes at center, he’s on the smaller side for the position at the NBA level.  At 6’9” with a 7’1” wingspan, he lacks the height and length of first round center prospects like Donovan Clingan and Zach Edey (who are admittedly gigantic), as well as guys with more traditional center size like Kel’el Ware and Yves Missi.  Holmes’ build is actually closer to that of a taller power forward, similar to prospects like Tidjane Salaun and Tyler Smith.  Holmes is bulkier than those guys, weighing in at 235+ pounds, but he’s also older than them so he’s had more time to develop.  As a result, Holmes may need to show some positional flexibility to maximize his value in the NBA.  With that said, he can play rotational/backup center minutes now, and if he can survive at the power forward position, he has the tools to have a long, successful career. 

What Caught My Eye:  Rare Combo of Size, Skill, and Movement

I’m not sure that Holmes has a single attribute that leaps out when you watch him play, but if you throw on footage of his game, it’s hard to miss his nice blend of good size, skill in all facets of offense, and his ability to move smoothly around the court.  Holmes has the post-up skills of a traditional big man from the 90s or early 2000s, but he’s also a natural pick-and-pop shooter, too.  He also has a pretty good handle for a big guy, so he can attack aggressive close-outs off the dribble, get into the paint, and finish over rotating defenders.  You even see him blend in step-back jumpers, push the ball in transition, and run inverted pick and rolls.  He’s also a good passer with solid court vision.  He gets the ball out to shooters and cutters out of double-teams and he’s even shown that he can make nice passes when playing in the high-post and at the top of the key, which lots of big men struggle with.  Seriously—check out the clip below, you see him do a bit of everything:

Holmes is a big man with guard skills rather than a guard in a big man’s body, but that versatility is still incredibly valuable.  He doesn’t need to win any one way, which will make it hard for defenses to ignore him even though he won’t have a discrete offensive advantage nightly.  Plus, Holmes absolutely has enough size, shot-blocking, and rebounding potential to be useful even if he’s not a primary or secondary offensive threat.

You just don’t see a ton of guys with this blend of size, skill, and movement ability—typically at least one of those areas is lacking for prospects—so when you do, you notice.  That said, most high-level NBA prospects (like guys who go in the lottery) either have at least one skill that they can win with regularly at the NBA level or are young and have a ton of upside.  Holmes doesn’t necessarily fit that mold.  It’s possible his outside shooting will become the skill that gives him an “NBA edge” if he can sustain hitting nearly 40% of threes at the NBA level, but he’s only hit threes at that rate once and his 71% free throw percentage is a little bit of a concern.  And at 21, it’s hard to confidently project Holmes for a ton of physical development—he’s not at his ceiling, but teams can’t reasonably expect him to grow as much as younger prospects like Tidjane Salaun.

Can He Handle NBA Forwards?

In today’s NBA, teams roll out a fair number of smaller power forwards who either attack defenses outside-in, like Julius Randle and Paolo Banchero, or are real threats to score on the perimeter, like Lauri Markannen and Jaren Jackson.  Whether Holmes can defend those kinds of players—most of whom are going to be faster than Holmes and stronger than guys he played in college—is going to be a critical question for his ceiling in the NBA.

Holmes played very good defense at Dayton, but that as a center and his size limitations weren’t a big issue in the Atlantic 10.  There’s a lot of great tape of Holmes swatting soft interior shots from smaller players left and right—those kinds of plays made up a huge portion of his rim protection.  While he should be able to block shots at the NBA level, it’s not going to be as easy for him and he won’t be able to take as many chances.  Against A-10 competition, Holmes’ tendency to hunt blocks and get jumpy didn’t hurt him too much, as he could usually recover and at least get off a good contest.  Guarding NBA power forwards, those habits are going to be a problem—biting on pump fakes, losing defensive leverage, and getting too high in his defensive stance is going to lead to a lot of fouls, missed rebounding opportunities, and blown assignments.  While Holmes is a good athlete, he won’t stand out amongst NBA bigs—especially against power forwards.  Building the right tendencies and minimizing positioning mistakes is going to be a huge factor in his success on defense.  He won’t generate the same number of STOCKs as at Dayton, but he’s got enough size, strength, and movement skills defensively to do a good job of containing NBA forwards.  And of course, when he’s on the weak side, he’ll still get chances to use his rim protection and anticipation skills to get blocks and create turnovers.

Conclusion

That’s it for this Five Favorites.  If it’s not obvious, I’m a big fan of all these prospects and expect that they’ll get drafted at the high end of their ranges and out-perform their draft slots.  As a Kings fan, I’d be happy to draft any of them at pick #13—even Holmes, who isn’t necessarily projected as a lottery pick.  I’m really looking forward to seeing what’s in store for them next week!

As always, thanks for reading!