The Biggest Questions Facing the Chargers Before the 2024 Opener

Football season is finally back, and I am so excited for the opening week. This year, we’re getting two early games in Ravens versus Chiefs on Thursday and Packers versus Eagles on Friday, both of which should be great match ups. But as a Chargers fan, you know I’m most excited for the Bolts to open their season against the Raiders this Sunday at 1:05 pm—you’ve got to love a rivalry game to get the season going!

Some of my favorite football pundits haven’t been high on the Chargers much this offseason and Las Vegas prognosticators seem to have them as a mid-tier team, with sites like BetMGM pegging the team’s win total at 8.5 (albeit with a pedestrian payout if they hit the over of just -160). Having gone 5-12 last season, it’s hard to get too up in arms about the lack of hype. But with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, Justin Herbert leading the offense, and some talented defensive players hopefully returning to form, the Chargers should be a fun team to watch, and hopefully one that can contend for a wild card berth.

In this post, I’m raising the key questions for the Chargers heading into the season, and I’ll predict how I think things will shake out.

Will Anyone Besides Herbert Threaten Offensively?

Justin Herbert is a monster. If you haven’t figured that out yet, you haven’t watched enough football, so here are two options to begin your education (or just enjoy crazy plays)—8 minutes of crazy throws or an hour of highlights, have at it.

But the Chargers lost some serious offensive talent this offseason, and they’re going to have to find a way to replace it. Most notably, the Bolts traded Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen to the Bears; cut starting wide receiver Mike Williams; let starting running back Austin Ekeler and starting tight end Gerald Everett walk in free agency; and lost former All-Pro center Corey Linsley to retirement. Losing some of those guys won’t change much from last year, as Williams and Linsley each played just three games last season before injuries. Moving on from Ekeler and Everett also isn’t a huge concern given Ekeler struggled with efficiency and took a step backward as both a rusher and a receiver and Everett never really blossomed into a plus-player in Los Angeles.

But losing Keenan Allen is a gut punch. Allen was only guy on the offense who really threatened defenses last year. He was also the Chargers’ primary chain mover and Herbert’s favorite target by far. Allen was targeted on over 31% of the Chargers’ passing attempts during the 13 games he played (averaging over 11.5 targets per game), and despite missing 4 games at the end of the season, he was responsible for almost 29% of the Chargers total receiving yards. That’s a lot of production to lose, despite Allen turning 32 this offseason.

While Allen is by far the most meaningful piece to depart this offseason, the Chargers need to replace over 70% of both their rushing and receiving production from last year (in terms of yards). They also are replacing players who scored 28 of their 35 offensive touch downs last season (excluding passing TDs).

Who’s going to step up?

The Bolts are returning four wide receivers in Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, and Simi Fehoko, but none of them are sure things. Palmer, a third-round pick in 2021, has filled in as the Chargers third WR behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams the past two seasons. He’s a quality receiver, but he’s never shouldered a huge load offensively for more than a game or two at a time. He will have to step up and play like a consistent starter—I’m optimistic he can do so. Johnston is a wild card. Though he was taken #21 overall in last year’s draft, he struggled mightily to catch the ball and create separation. His most painful highlight from last year cost the Chargers a win against the Packers (there were other drops that were almost as bad) and he was dead last in separation score. Simply put, he needs to be better. Davis and Fehoko aren’t likely to make huge contributions in terms of receiving numbers, as Davis is a return specialist/special package player and Fehoko has mostly been a practice squad player. At running back and tight end, there’s been a huge degree of turnover. Only tight end Stone Smartt is back on the active roster this year, and he’s mostly been a backup.

With so few guys returning, the Chargers have instead looked to new roster additions to fill in their skill position needs on offense. They drafted wide receiver Ladd McConkey in the second round, running back Kimani Vidal in the sixth round, and wide receiver Brenden Rice in the seventh round. They signed free agent running backs Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Hassan Haskins; free agent wide receiver DJ Chark; and free agent tight ends Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst.

While that’s a lot of players to bring in, the only truly significant investments the Chargers made in were for McConkey (second round pick) and Dissly (3 year deal with $10 million guaranteed). The other players the Chargers brought in were essentially available at discount deal prices, not usually an indicator that a lot of production can be expected from them. For example, Vidal and Rice were picked toward the end of the 2024 draft. And the Chargers’ other free agency additions (besides Dissly) were signed for relatively small deals worth under $3.5 million in guaranteed money, usually for just one season.

But some of these guys could end up being huge values, especially given the cost to get them.

At receiver, I’m most excited about McConkey. He’s shifty with the ball in his hands, he’s got speed to burn (4.38 second 40 yard dash), and he’s capable of playing out of a bunch of different alignments. I’m hopeful he can become the Chargers’ best receiver at some point this year given what he flashed in college and the high draft pick the Chargers invested in drafting him. But it’s unfair to expect him to fill Keenan Allen’s shoes as a rookie and he’s got a history of leg and back injuries that limited his production in college.

At the same time, Josh Palmer should be a reliable contributor. DJ Chark has a 1,000 yard season under his belt and should at least provide some speed on the outside, which the Chargers desperately need—if he pops back to his early career form, signing him for cheap will be a huge win. Quentin Johnston has the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level if the new coaching staff can help him develop as a receiver, but he’ll have to improve dramatically to be a plus player this season. And anything the team can get from Brenden Rice, Derius Davis, and Simi Fehoko in terms of receiving production will be a win.

The Chargers’ new running game will also be interesting. Incoming OC Greg Roman has a long history of leading effective rushing teams. Roman’s offenses have finished amongst the top five teams in total rushing yards nine times in his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator. The roster moves also should bolster the ground game. Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins have significant injury risks, but they’ve been very effective when they have been healthy. Edwards is a strong down-hill runner who routinely breaks tackles. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry or better four times in five NFL seasons and, for his career, averages 3.17 yards after contact per carry according to Pro Football Focus. Dobbins has a limited track record due to his extensive injury history, but he’s been impressive as a runner and receiver when he plays. In (somewhat) healthy seasons in 2020 and 2022, Dobbins averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per carry respectively. Rookie Kimani Vidal was extremely productive at Troy, rushing for over 1600 yards and 14 touchdowns last year—but he’s untested and taking a big leap to NFL competition. The blocking additions should help, too. The Chargers spent the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft on top offensive tackle Joe Alt and Dissly, their big free agency acquisition at tight end, is a quality blocker.

Ultimately, there are a ton of question marks outside of Herbert, many of which center on injuries. If Roman can spur a strong running game, if guys stay healthy, and if someone can emerge as a credible receiving threat, Herbert is good enough to propel this team to a top 10-12 offense. If nobody emerges as a receiving threat, though, it may be slower going.

Can the Defensive Stars Show Out Again?

The Chargers have been reliant on a few highly paid, big name players on defense for the past few years. That’s true again this season, as the team’s three highest paid players other than Herbert are all on defense: Joey Bosa ($26.1 million), Khalil Mack ($25.4 million), and Derwin James ($19.9 million).

We know Bosa, Mack, and James are capable players—combined for 15 Pro Bowls, four All-Pro selections, a Defensive Player of the Year award, and a Defensive Rookie of the Year award—so the Chargers will need these three guys to both play at a high-level and be available on season to succeed on defense.

Mack is on the back-end of his career at age 33, but he’s coming off a stellar year in which he posted a career-high 17 sacks and generated a whopping 88 total pressures. He’s also still an elite run defender, receiving a 90.8 run defense grade last season from PFF. Perhaps most impressively, Mack has suited up for every game for the Chargers over the last two seasons and played 80%+ of the team’s defensive snaps, an incredible record of availability and consistency from the 10-year veteran. While he probably can’t reproduce the same sack totals as last year, having Mack available and playing at a near-Pro Bowl level (especially against the run) is going to be critical for the Chargers defense.

Mack’s partner on the edge, Joey Bosa, hasn’t been nearly as available the last two years in particular. As a result of numerous different injuries, Bosa has played in just 14 of a possible 34 regular season games over the last two seasons. In the games he has played in during that time, he’s been on the field for well under 60% of the total snaps played and has totaled just nine sacks. While Bosa’s pass rushing production has been solid on a per snap basis and he’s graded out well, his lack of availability on the field has been an enormous concern. Bosa will need to play a lot for the Chargers defense to reach its highest levels, but he’s already fighting the injury bug again this year: Bosa needed surgery less than a month ago for a broken hand suffered in a joint practice with the Rams in early August. Fortunately, and unlike prior years, the Chargers have decent depth on the edge in second year Tuli Tuipulotu and veteran edge rusher Bud Dupree, who signed in free agency. If Bosa misses games again, they should be able to survive—but they aren’t likely to be an above average unit without him.

Derwin James, for his part, is a do-it-all safety and the key player in the Chargers’ secondary. He’s been one of the most productive safeties in the NFL since entering the league in 2018, with first and second team All Pro selections and multiple Pro Bowl appearances. The Chargers have used James all over the field, including as a 1-on-1 defender for tight ends and slot receivers, as an in-the-box thumper, as a blitzer, and even as a deep third defender. His incredible versatility has been a tremendous asset for the Chargers in the past. Unfortunately, James struggled a bit in coverage last season. He posted by far the lowest coverage grade of his career at 57.0, far below his prior low of 74.4, per PFF. James has been relatively healthy and is still in his prime at 28 years old, so the dramatic drop-off may be an outlier. There are reasons to think so, too. James lost his counterpart at safety, Alohi Gilman, to injury last year and had to shoulder a ton of additional responsibility as a result. The Chargers defense also severely underperformed with Brandon Staley calling plays, and they cratered as a unit toward the end of last season, which ultimately led to Staley being fired. With Harbaugh and DC Jesse Minter now in town, James will need to play like a stud again for things to go well.

Will the Interior of the Lines Hold Up?

The Chargers have some incredibly talented players on both the offensive and defensive lines, but that talent is highly concentrated on the edges for both sides of the football.

On offense, Rashawn Slater is a top-tier young talent at left tackle who’s already made a Pro Bowl (though he had a bit of a down year last year) and right tackle Joe Alt has the tools to be a star. But the Chargers have real questions on the interior. Zion Johnson was a first-round pick in 2022, but his first two seasons have been truly mediocre as a pass blocker and his awe-inspiring physical tools haven’t translated to consistent, quality run blocking either. Johnson took a bit of a step back as a run blocker last year, but given his age and pedigree, there’s reason to believe he can continue to improve. Hopefully the new coaching staff, including OL Coach Mike Devlin and Assistant OL Coach Nick Hardwick (a former Charger’s star lineman) and Greg Roman’s offensive scheme can help Johnson unlock his potential. He certainly looks the part of an athletic freak, so we hope to see him play like it!

The Chargers other two starters are longer-term NFL veterans, but they’re in new situations. Trey Pipkins is entering his sixth season and started at right tackle the past two seasons, but he will kick inline to right guard with Joe Alt’s arrival. Pipkins has been a solid pass blocker for most of his career, but his lack of quickness has shown up at times on the edge, so moving inside may better suit his talents. That said, he’s been subpar as a run blocker and the Chargers will need him to perform better than he has in the past (Pipkins has never graded out higher than a 64 in PFF’s run blocking grade). Center Bradley Bozeman started for the Baltimore Ravens when Greg Roman was OC there, but he’s a new arrival in Los Angeles by way of a two-year stint with the Carolina Panthers. Bozeman is a solid run blocker, which should be an immediate improvement over Will Clapp, last year’s starting center. But Bozeman has never been particularly adept at pass blocking, so he’ll need to hold up well enough there to keep Justin Herbert from getting early pressure up the middle.

The Chargers do have reasonable offensive line depth for the first time in years, with guys like Jaramee Salyer and Foster Sarrell as backups. Those guys will be important, too, given you cannot expect the full line to be healthy all season.

I have a hard time seeing the Chargers sporting one of the best O-Lines in the NFL unless they can shore up the interior. I’m optimistic about Slater and Alt, but they really need one or two other guys to take a step forward to really have a strong unit as a whole.

I’m less optimistic about the defensive line, which could really be a struggle this season. The Bolts didn’t do much to shore up the unit that struggled the last couple of seasons. The Chargers brought back rotation D-Lineman Morgan Fox, Otito Ogbonnia, and Scott Matlock. They added free agents Poona Ford and Teair Tart on near-minimum deals and drafted Justin Eboigbe in the fourth round out of Alabama. At the same time, they lost guys who ate a lot of snaps last year, including Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson, and Nick Williams—while none of those players provided much more than replacement-level play, they were a bit better in 2023 than 2022 and will inevitably be missed.

Ford, and to a lesser extent Tart, have been productive in the past, so there’s some hope they can return to their previous highs. Fox is a pass rush specialist and should fill that role well, but he has size limitations that prevent him from being an every-down DT. Eboigbe, Ogbonnia, and Matlock are all young and there’s a chance they could become contributors as they take on bigger roles, but none of them come with significant draft pedigree as they were all fourth round draft picks or later. One of those three guys will have to perform well above expectation for the interior D-Line to be average. More likely, the Chargers are going to have to rely heavily on solid linebacker play, with support from James at safety, and their edge rushers to contribute a ton in run defense.

How Big Is the Leap from Staley to Harbaugh?

I’ll be the first to admit that I was comfortable with the Brandon Staley hire when it happened. The hope was that Staley would come in and help shore up a Chargers defense that had been middle-of-the-pack despite having a number of really good players. The early returns on the team’s performance were good, too, as Staley went 9-8 and 10-7 in his first two seasons as head coach. Yet despite the team’s relative success, the defense never really came together. During Staley’s tenure as defensive play caller in 2021, 2022, and 2023, the Chargers finished 29th, 22nd, and 24th in points allowed and 23rd, 20th, and 28th in yards allowed respectively. Other team metrics were equally unkind: the Bolts were 26th, 20th, and 26th in Defensive DVOA according to FTN Fantasy.

More importantly, even with Herbert authoring 11 game winning drives in three seasons, the Chargers still lost 14 games (27% of their total games!) by 3 or fewer points, including a gut-wrenching loss to the Jaguars in the 2022 Wild Card round. That’s insane by any measure, but it’s infuriating when most of those losses happened simply because the Chargers defense couldn’t stop teams when it mattered.

Staley obviously knows football and there’s little reason to question his schematic acumen (the 49ers recently hired him as an assistant head coach to help their defense). Still, his tenure as head coach was defined by inexplicable collapses and ineffective defense overall. We may never know whether that was due to Staley’s lack of experience as a head coach, leadership, or just bad luck, but we do know that it was time for the Chargers to move on.

Bringing in a big-time coach like Jim Harbaugh is a welcome step up. There’s no real question Harbaugh has what it takes to win at a high level, as he’s done so at every stop. Harbaugh is fresh off a 15-0, national championship season at the University of Michigan. During Harbaugh’s nine seasons in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines went 89-25 (0.781). Before that, Harbaugh had a highly successful stint with the San Francisco 49ers where his teams went 44-19-1 and made a Super Bowl. Harbaugh also led the Stanford Cardinal out of the doldrums and into an Orange Bowl win in 2010, his tenure starting off a decade of phenomenal success for the Cardinal football program. And Harbaugh’s first stint as a head coach was a tremendous success, too, as he took the University of San Diego Toreros to a 29-6 record from 2004 to 2006.

Harbaugh won’t be the offensive or defensive play caller for the Chargers this year, but his influence on the team is unquestionable. If he can create the same culture of professionalism, competitive fire, and enthusiasm within the Bolts’ locker room that he has at every other stop, it’s going to be a huge step forward.

I mean, just listen to this guy—what a gem!