Kings Offseason Update: DeMar DeRozan

Well, well, well, the Sacramento Kings offseason does have some sizzle!

The Kings made a splashy move on Saturday night by executing a sign-and-trade for Chicago Bulls wing and six-time All-Star DeMar DeRozan. This was huge news for the Kings, as DeRozan is probably the most accomplished free agent to ever join the Kings (all due respect to the Vlade Divac signing all the way back in 1999).

The Kings were hosting a summer league game against China when the deal was announced in the Golden One Center. Needless to say, the vibes were immaculate:

I talked briefly about the possibility of a sign-and-trade for DeRozan in my last post and it looks like the cost of the deal was roughly around what I expected (although the Kings gave up a bit more draft capital than I would’ve liked in an ideal world). Here are the deal terms:

• Sacramento Kings Receive:

  • DeMar DeRozan

    • DeRozan signed a 3 year, $73.7 million contract—the first two years are guaranteed and the third year is guaranteed for just $10 million

• Chicago Bulls Receive:

  • Two second round draft picks (from Sacramento)

  • Chris Duarte

• San Antonio Spurs Receive:

  • Harrison Barnes

  • Swap rights for Kings 2031 first round pick

How Did This Deal Go Down, and What Does It Mean for the Parties?

I’ll explain briefly what’s happened in this trade from each party’s perspective.

DeRozan was a free agent this offseason and the Bulls could not realistically keep him without going deep into the luxury tax, an unpalatable proposition for an aging team that only won 39 games last season. Rather than risk letting DeRozan walk in free agency with nothing to show for it, the Bulls were heavily incentivized to engage in a sign-and-trade so that they could get something back for him.

Entering his age 35 season, DeRozan was facing a rather limited free agency market. As I wrote about previously, only six or seven teams entered the offseason with substantial cap room: Detroit, Philadelphia, Utah, Oklahoma City, Orlando (Charlotte technically had some room and Toronto theoretically could have created room but chose not to). But only a few of those teams were realistic potential destinations for DeRozan, and that pool became even smaller early on in free agency when Philadelphia signed Paul George, Oklahoma City signed Isaiah Hartenstein, and Orlando signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. By looking at sign-and-trade scenarios, DeRozan could open up his list of potential destinations to keep his prospective compensation high and avoid having to join teams in the middle of a rebuild.

As an added challenge, the Bulls and DeRozan needed to find a way to do a sign-and-trade for DeRozan while not forcing the Bulls to take back a lot of salary. The Bulls wanted to avoid the luxury tax, but they also signed Jalen Smith in free agency to a 3 year, $27 million deal that hard-capped them at the first apron (because the Bulls gave Smith a starting salary above the Taxpayer MLE, they got hard capped at the first apron).

While the Bulls and DeRozan both wanted to do a sign-and-trade, they needed to find a trade partner and find a way to keep the Bulls from taking back too much salary in the deal. There weren’t many cap room teams interested, as I mentioned, so they had to focus on finding over-the-cap teams to do a deal.

The Kings were just such a team, over-the-cap but interested in adding DeRozan at a salary level he was comfortable with (roughly $20-25 million per year). But under the CBA rules, over-the-cap teams like the Kings must send out “matching salary” in a trade, which the Bulls didn’t want to (and couldn’t) accept. So it had to be a three team deal.

Enter the Spurs. The Spurs had a relatively quiet free agency start despite having cap space. The only move they’d made in free agency was to sign veteran point guard Chris Paul to a 1 year, $11 million deal. But they had more cap space to use and were willing to use it to facilitate a DeRozan sign-and-trade, especially if they could extract something of value out of the deal.

To make the deal work, the Kings and DeRozan first had to iron out contract details that would work for both sides. They landed on 3 years and $73.7 million, with only a partial guarantee in the final year of the deal to protect the team in case DeRozan’s play declines as he ages (DeRozan will be 37 in the last year of the deal).

As an over-the-cap team, the Kings had to comply with the CBA’s salary matching rules to trade for DeRozan. They also had to consider their own luxury tax and cap situation; the Kings were already close to the luxury tax themselves and by executing a sign-and-trade, they would hard cap themselves at the first apron by rule. To match DeRozan’s $23.4 million incoming salary for the 2024-25 cap year (salary estimate from Spotrac), the Kings chose to trade away Harrison Barnes and Chris Duarte, slated for 2024-25 salaries of $18 million and $5.9 million respectively.

Due to the Bulls lack of room below the tax and hard cap situation, they could only take back Duarte’s $5.9 million salary for this year (Duarte is a restricted free agent at the end of next season). In exchange, the Bulls received two second round draft picks from the Kings. That’s pretty close to the market price this offseason for eating $5-6 million in salary, and if the Bulls can turn Duarte’s shooting around, they may realize some upside from his contract too.

The Spurs took on Harrison Barnes’ contract, which is for $18 million this coming season and $19 million in 2025-26. That’s a significant amount of salary to take on, but the Spurs had some cap space to use and Barnes is a productive player. To get enough cap space for the deal to work, the Spurs actually had to trade away a second round pick to dump Devonte Graham’s contract on the Hornets. Barnes also agreed to waive a 10% trade kicker to make the deal possible. Ultimately, for their trouble, the Spurs added Barnes and received the right to swap first round picks with the Kings in 2031.

By adding Barnes, the Spurs get a productive player who can space the floor effectively (Barnes shoots 38% from three for his career), something the Spurs need around Victor Wembanyama and this year’s #4 overall pick Stephon Castle, both of whom can benefit tremendously from floor spacing the Spurs often lacked last year. Barnes will also bring professionalism, maturity, and availability—traits the Kings benefitted from tremendously during his six seasons with the franchise. While Barnes’ defensive limitations and below average rebounding were issues for a relatively undersized Sacramento team, Wembanyama’s presence in San Antonio should mitigate those concerns. And at the very least, Barnes may be a potential trade chip for San Antonio down the line as other teams search for shooting (everyone always needs shooting) or if they need to matching salary in a trade.

The 2031 swap right has the potential to be extremely valuable, but its value is highly variable and exceptionally difficult to predict at this stage. Prudence would suggest assuming something like a 50/50 chance that the swap right is even exercised at all. The teams also have to consider the relative value (and cost) of the potential for moving a short distance between picks (it’s not that valuable to go from pick #17 to #14, for example). I’ve seen a ton of takes that the swap right is super high value, but they’re over-stated. A lot can change in the next seven years, and in order for the swap right to be exceptionally valuable things have to go both poorly in Sacramento and extremely well in San Antonio. For perspective, seven years is enough time to completely turnover rosters. Plus, the current CBA won’t even be in effect in 2031. And I’ve seen exactly zero people acknowledge the possibility that Wembanyama might actually leave San Antonio in free agency before the swap right even rolls around.

From the Kings perspective, by executing the sign-and-trade for DeRozan, they added a talented player they could not have signed in free agency. They also managed to shed salary this year in the deal, giving them slightly more breathing room below the luxury tax and the first apron hard cap. I’ll talk more about how it effects them on the court next.

DeRozan Boosts the Kings’ Talent, But Questions Remain

There’s quite a bit of good content on DeRozan’s fit with the Kings out there, but it’s worth discussing it a bit anyway. I’m quite optimistic about the Kings adding DeRozan, especially offensively. He brings All-Star level scoring from midrange and on the interior (especially by getting to the line), and he’s a willing passer who still takes care of the ball. Last season, Derozan averaged 24.0 points, 5.3 assists, 4.3 rebounds, and just 1.7 turnovers per game respectable shooting numbers, especially from the field and the free throw line (48% from the field / 33.3% from three / 85.3% from the free throw line on 7.7 attempts per game). Those numbers are roughly in-line with his averages over the last decade across three different teams, so it’s not hard to envision DeRozan having similar production in Sacramento.

DeRozan Will Give the Kings More Options Offensively

DeRozan is an elite shotmaker with serious creation chops, which is something the Kings sorely lacked toward the end of last year. He can create offensive for himself and his teammates in isolation, he can effectively run pick-and-rolls, he’s a truly elite midrange shooter, and he’s not afraid to attack the paint to score and create foul opportunities.

DeRozan’s scoring and creation skills will help the Kings take pressure off of Fox and Monk to generate offense. Over the last couple years, the Kings have needed additional shot creation late in games especially, and DeRozan provides that in spades. While the Sabonis-centric offense that the Kings run can be highly effective, it’s too often bogged down late in games against playoff caliber opponents, and that contributed to several critical Kings losses (including, for example, in the 2023 playoffs versus the Warriors). The issue was even more pronounced at the end of last season after Monk got hurt and the Kings struggled mightily to maintain their offensive firepower. Barnes provided a bit of creation at times, but those times were too few and too far between to comfortably rely on. This shows up in the numbers, as the Kings ranked 26th among all teams in isolation possessions and were in the bottom half of teams in terms of efficiency when they did at 0.9 points per possession. While I’m not suggesting the Kings should lean heavily into iso offense, there are times when it’s helpful to have as an option, and DeRozan will help fill that void easily. Per NBA.com, DeRozan was 17th in the NBA in isolation possessions per game and scored 1.10 points per possession (PPP) out of them—roughly comparable to the PPP figures put up by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic, albeit on less volume.

DeRozan’s pick and roll effectiveness will also help the Kings maintain efficient offense even with Fox off the floor, as DeRozan and Sabonis could make for an elite pick and roll combo with shooters like Murray, Ellis, Monk, Huerter, and Lyles on the floor with them. This is another area of effective offense that the Kings weren’t always able to go to when needed last season. They ran pick and rolls with the third lowest frequency in the NBA and posted a middle-of-the-pack 0.92 points per possession out of those plays per NBA.com. But adding DeRozan will make the pick and roll game a much more robust option offensively. DeRozan ran 8.1 pick and rolls per game (12th in the NBA) and scored 1.05 PPPs in those situations. To put those figures in perspective, Fox ran 8.2 pick and rolls per game and scored 0.97 PPPs while Tyrese Halliburton ran 8.1 pick and rolls per game and scored 1.06 PPPs. Adding options like an effective pick and roll game for when Fox sits will help keep the Kings offense humming throughout games, which was at times an issue last season.

I’m also optimistic about DeRozan’s ability to generate points off drives. He was the 13th most frequent driver in the NBA last season at roughly 14.8 drives per game (just a bit behind Fox’s 10th-ranked 15.2 drives per game), which really bolstered DeRozan’s scoring efficiency as he shot over 60% inside of 8 feet and got the to free throw line at the fourth highest rate in the league. I’m especially excited about the free throw shooting, as the Kings have struggled to get easy points from the line in the past.

DeRozan should be able to fit in well enough with the Kings’ dribble handoff (DHO) offense. That’s important because the Kings ran handoffs more than 50% more often than any other team in the NBA (roughly 11.4 times per game). You can see from the clip below that DeRozan had some opportunities to run similar sets in Chicago, even though the Bulls ran handoffs less than any other team in the NBA. These kinds of plays should be more efficient for DeRozan when done with Sabonis rather than Nikola Vucecic:

There are two primary concerns with adding DeRozan offensively, but I suspect they’ll both be manageable.

The biggest concern is that adding DeRozan and subtracting Barnes does hurt the Kings’ three point shooting prowess. Barnes was a reliable floor spacer, hitting over 38% of his threes in five of six seasons in Sacramento. While DeRozan can hit some threes, it’s definitely not his forte. He’s a low volume three point shooter and well below average by percentage (he did a bit better on corner threes last year, hitting 39.4% per NBA.com, but that might be an outlier). With Fox’s improved shooting, Huerter and Monk back from injury, and the possibility of a bounce-back shooting year from Keegan Murray, I don’t worry too much about the dip in shooting. I also don’t expect DeRozan’s weaker three point shooting to dramatically affect the Kings’ floor spacing overall. DeRozan still commands attention on the perimeter because of his ability to knock down midrange shots and dribble-drive close-outs. While he’s not a prolific three point shooter, DeRozan has hit over 43% of his midrange shots last year per NBA.com and has been upwards of 45% from that distance repeatedly in recent years. In addition, because DeRozan can handle a good amount of on-ball responsibility, there are ways to mitigate his lack of shooting by letting him bring the ball up and initiate offense, including through pick and rolls.

The other concern that folks have raised is about DeRozan’s supposed “stickiness” with the ball. That concern strikes me as dramatically over-stated. DeRozan played in a Chicago offense that was deliberate and methodical (28th in pace), but DeRozan’s average touch lasted just 4.73 seconds, just a touch longer than Fox’s average of 4.68 seconds per touch. While DeRozan will need to move the ball more quickly at times in the Kings offense, he’s become such a willing distributor that there’s no reason to think he can’t do so.

Ultimately, DeRozan will bring more offensive punch to the Kings easily. He’ll give the team more options for shot creation and easy pick and rolls, and he should be another reliable option for one-on-one scoring when needed late in games. While his lack of three point shooting isn’t ideal, it’s mitigated by the fact that the Kings can still put plenty of shooting on the floor even with DeRozan and Sabonis together.

Defensively, the Trade May Be a Wash

The biggest concern with swapping Barnes (and I suppose Duarte) for DeRozan is the impact on defense, and you see a lot of folks expressing concern about the Kings defense in general. I think those concerns are way overstated for two reasons.

While no one claims that DeRozan is a force on defense, the Kings didn’t actually give up much in terms of defensive contribution in the deal.

Let’s start with Duarte for simplicity. While Duarte was an above average defensive player, his offensive struggles kept him from getting on the floor consistently, and he averaged just 12.2 minutes per game as a result. His propensity for fouling also didn’t help him stay on the court. With Keon Ellis emerging, Monk and Huerter both back with the team, and the Kings selecting Devin Carter in the draft, there was no real path for Duarte to contribute meaningfully this coming season (and he is slated to be a free agent after next season regardless).

But what about losing Barnes? I expect there will be some drawbacks, but probably less pronounced than most folks assume.

At 6’8” and 225 pounds, Barnes has slotted in as an undersized power forward for the Kings for years. While he’s been a solid, well-rounded player during that time, Barnes’ defensive limitations have been a significant issue for the Kings for several years, especially paired with a big like Domantas Sabonis who doesn’t offer a ton of rim protection. DeRozan has also played power forward quite a bit for the last few years in Chicago and at times in San Antonio, but he’s a bit smaller than Barnes at 6’6” and 220 pounds. By moving from Barnes to DeRozan, the Kings will give up a bit of height. And even though Barnes was never a stout defender against stronger power forwards, his strength and size were a bit more suited to matching up against guys like Karl-Anthony Towns and Jaren Jackson Jr. than DeRozan will be.

But in the modern NBA, there just aren’t that many power forwards who are offensively capable of overpowering their opponents with strength. Other than Towns and Jackson, it’s hard to think of any examples of Western Conference forwards that Barnes could handle strength-wise that DeRozan cannot. Arguably Zion Williamson fits the description, but Barnes generally wasn’t able to handle him either (I’m not sure many players can 1 vs. 1). Focusing on the Western Conference, the vast majority of modern power forwards are really perimeter players or at best tertiary offensive threats. Towns, Jackson, Kevin Durant, Zion Williamson, Kawhi Leonard, Jalen Williams, Jerami Grant, and Draymond Green all largely play outside-in. Aaron Gordon, PJ Washington, Rui Hachimura, Jeremy Sochan, John Collins, and Jabari Smith aren't big enough offensive threats to really be a concern on the interior other than as lob threats. It’s just not a huge area of concern.

Of course, Barnes’ size would be theoretically more useful against centers than anything DeRozan has to offer, but if you watched the Kings last season for any significant amount of time, you’d be hard-pressed to find examples of Barnes meaningfully slowing down centers when switched on to them. The Kings were wholly dependent on Sabonis (and to a lesser extent Alex Len, Javale McGee, and Trey Lyles) to hold up against opposing centers.

Aside from size concerns (which were an issue with Barnes too), there isn’t much reason to think that the Kings are losing much on the defensive end.

From an advanced numbers perspective, DeRozan actually graded out comparably to Barnes as a defender. Per DunksandThrees.com, DeRozan posted a 50th percentile Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of -0.6, while Barnes ranked in the 49th percentile (DeRozan outperformed Barnes by this metric in 2021-22 and 2022-23 too, if you’re curious). The all-in defensive metric from Basketball Reference, Defensive Box Plus-Minus, also consistently prefers DeRozan to Barnes. In 2023-24, DeRozan posted a Defensive Box Plus-Minus rating of -0.3 compared to Barnes’ rating of -1.2, and DeRozan has rated better than Barnes each of the last five seasons under the metric. From an on/off points perspective, it also looks like close to a wash. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Kings were about 3.0 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with Barnes on the floor while the Bulls were actually better by about 0.4 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the floor. Even comparing their time at power forward tells a similar story: the Bulls gave up 116.4 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan at power forward compared to the Kings giving up 117.0 points per 100 possessions with Barnes at power forward.

The defensive counting stats tell the same basic story. Last year, DeRozan averaged 5.7 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 0.8 blocks per 100 possessions. Barnes averaged 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals, and 0.2 blocks per 100 possessions. DeRozan’s steals and blocks rates have also been better than Barnes’ rates every year for the past five seasons, and DeRozan has posted better defensive rebounding rates than Barnes in three of the last five years, per Basketball Reference.

The other thing to consider is that the Kings’ defensive capabilities were based largely around improving their perimeter defense. Once Monk and Huerter went down, the Kings were forced to play Keon Ellis and Davion Mitchell more often. The combination of Ellis, Keegan Murray, and De’Aaron Fox in particular performed exceptionally well in terms of perimeter defense, and helped elevate the Kings defense tremendously. Though the Kings finished 14th in defensive rating last season (114.4), they actually were 9th in the NBA after the All Star break (110.9) and ranked 6th over the last 15 games (108.8). Whether Barnes or DeRozan is at power forward isn’t going to materially affect the perimeter guys, and DeRozan’s offensive contributions may, in fact, let Fox focus more effort night-in and night-out on the defensive end.

Sacramento Is Still Going to Miss Harrison Barnes

As a quick aside, I want to acknowledge that losing Harrison Barnes, AKA the Black Falcon, is bittersweet. He’s been a pillar for the Kings for almost six years now, and he’s been super active in the Sacramento community during that time. I wish him the best in San Antonio and hope he can provide the same level of consistency, poise, professionalism, and leadership there that he provided the Kings as they grew throughout his tenure here. It’s going to be sad never seeing this group together again in the Kings uniform:

The Kings Still Have Ways to Fortify Their Roster Long-Term

If I had to guess, I would bet the Kings are probably done with major moves for this offseason. The rumor mill now has the Kings out on Brandon Ingram, which makes sense given his skillset largely overlaps with DeRozan. And at this point, it’s hard to bank on any of the rumored Lauri Markkanen, Kyle Kuzma, or Jerami Grant trades going down, as none of Utah, Washington, or Portland seems all that pressed to make a trade soon. But none of that means they have to be done, and I expect they’ll still look to make a deal at some point (it may have to wait until the season starts).

Let’s start with the trade assets perspective.

The Kings actually didn’t have to use much in the way of trade assets to execute the trade for DeRozan. They gave up a 2031 first round pick swap, but otherwise, all they really lost was Harrison Barnes (whose trade value didn’t seem to be enormous given the two years left on his contract), Duarte’s matching salary, and some cap space. For future trades, the Kings still have some potentially valuable players and draft capital.

On the player side, I feel comfortable saying that Fox, Sabonis, and Murray aren’t going anywhere, and DeRozan and Monk aren’t tradeable for at least six months (plus, having just signed new deals, it’s unlikely they’re going anywhere). That means that if the Kings are to pursue a potential starting level veteran, they’d likely have to put Kevin Huerter (and his $16.8 million salary) in any deal to get the salary matching to work. Huerter is only 25 years old, and though he had a down year last season, he’s a capable scorer and movement shooter. The Kings also have a few other players on the roster that could draw some trade interest, though they have some drawbacks. For example, Sacramento’s first round pick Devin Carter was highly regarded during the draft process, but he’s undergoing shoulder surgery and it’s not clear when he’ll be back playing. Still, the cost control over his contract is potentially very valuable. Keon Ellis similarly has an extremely valuable contract, as he’s shown strong defensive ability and he’s effectively locked up for two years at the minimum salary. Trey Lyles is a quality backup forward on a reasonable (but expiring) $8 million contract, and he could draw some interest as a result. Otherwise, the Kings roster is mostly back-end rotation guys whose biggest value in a trade would be for salary matching.

The draft pick situation is OK but far from pristine. The Kings owe a top 12 protected pick to the Hawks in 2025, the last payment on the Kevin Huerter trade from a couple years ago. If it doesn’t convey next year, it turns into a top 10 protected pick in 2026. The net result is that the Kings can’t actually trade away one of their first round draft picks until 2028 (the Stepien Rule prevents teams from trading away their first round pick in successive seasons). Because teams can also only deal picks seven years out, the most the Kings can offer in a deal today is two firsts (probably in 2028 and 2030, since they traded swap rights to the 2031 pick in to San Antonio as part of getting DeRozan). If the 2025 first ultimately conveys to the Hawks, the Kings will have more flexibility and could trade their 2026, 2028, 2030, and 2032 first rounders in theory (plus swaps in 2027 and 2029).

I’m not sure whether the Kings have the trade assets to seal a deal for an All Star caliber player like Markkanen right now (I’m going to ignore Ingram). Yes, the Jazz have strong incentives to trade him. They owe a top 10 protected to Oklahoma City, so they would benefit from tanking and securing a good pick in a strong draft class; Markkanen is already 27, but most of the Jazz’s core is either really young or not yet on the roster; Markkanen is about to get a huge pay raise from an ultra-affordable $18 million to closer to $45-50 million per year. But at the same time, there should be a competitive trade market for Markkanen’s services and the Jazz don’t need to make a decision right away. Markkanen hasn’t told Utah he wants to leave (he’s arguably indicated the opposite), and the Jazz have until August 6 to decide if they want to give him a raise and an extension, much like the Kings did with Sabonis last year. Alternatively, the Jazz could let Markkanen hit free agency and try to lure him back with Bird rights or try to execute a sign-and-trade then. But if the Kings can pull off a deal for Markkanen, I’m all for it! And if they can do it before Markannen gets a raise/extension, they might be able to get away with losing just Huerter from their current rotation.

One of the most important questions about trading for a guy like Markkanen besides the cost is how he would fit into the Kings’ salary cap. Fortunately, the Kings’ cap situation over the next few years is quite flexible, so they can afford to add a big money guy like Markkanen and still function. While the Kings are up against the salary cap and hard-capped at the first apron this year, things should get a bit better if the salary cap grows as expected (because the NBA’s massive new TV deals are expected to net roughly three times current revenues, it’s probably fair to assume the salary cap, luxury tax line, and aprons to go up by the maximum 10% per year for the next 4-5 years).

Looking at the Kings cap situation over the next five years, there’s clearly some breathing room below the luxury tax lines and the aprons in particular:

Adding a $40-50 million salary in 2025-26, like Markkanen should get, is absolutely feasible while staying below the luxury tax line. For example, say the Kings traded Huerter and picks for Markkanen this offseason and ultimately re-sign Markkanen for 2025-26 and beyond at a starting salary of $45 million in the first year. That would be roughly $27 million in added salary for the 2025-26 season once you account for Huerter’s salary coming off the books—less than the $30.8 million in room the Kings would have below the first apron. While they would be a taxpayer that season, they’d still be able to get below the tax in theory too. Of course, the Kings also have to consider that long-term deals for De’Aaron Fox and Keegan Murray will kick in during the 2026-27 season, assuming the team can get deals done. But there’s $106.4 million in breathing room below the luxury tax line at that point—even factoring in a big deal for Markkanen, they’d easily have over $55 million below the luxury tax that could go toward deals with Fox and Murray, and they could create more space by either trading away DeRozan in the last year of his deal or waiving him (DeRozan’s contract expires after the 2026-27 season, and it’s only partially guaranteed that year anyway).

The Kings could also target trades for players who aren’t quite as good as Markkanen, which may be possible with relatively few draft assets and Huerter’s contract as matching salary. Here’s a few of the other forwards who might be available and attractive:

• Kyle Kuzma (Wizards). Adding Kuzma would give the Kings even more scoring punch and a bit more size and rebounding in the front court. He’s also on a very reasonable $23.5 million contract that actually descends in value over the next three years, so he’d fit into the Kings cap sheet nicely. Kuzma isn’t known for his defense or outside shooting, though, so he’s not a perfect fit. The Kings will have to be wary about price—unless the Wizards come down a bit on their asking price, I’m not sure Kuzma makes the most sense.

• Jerami Grant (Blazers). Grant has a lot of similarities to Kuzma. He’s a solid offensive threat, and a better outside shooter than Kuzma, but he’s probably over-extended at his current volume. He also used to be a pretty strong defensive presence, though that’s waned in recent seasons as he’s taken on a bigger offensive load. The biggest difference between Kuzma and Grant, though, is the salary. While Kuzma is on a team-friendly deal, Grant is slated to make almost $30 million this season, and his salary is going up each of the following three years. The Kings wouldn’t be able to get Grant with just Huerter to match salaries—they’d need to staple other useful players to the deal such as Trey Lyles. That makes trading for Grant much less appealing. And like Washington, Portland’s asking price for Grant has been on the high side of expectation.

• Cam Johnson (Nets). Similar to Kuzma, Johnson provides some more size in the front court (with a bit less rebounding talent). Though Johnson isn’t quite the creative scorer that Kuzma is, he grades out as a slightly better defender and he’s a knock-down three point shooter. He’s also on a reasonable contract ($23.6 million this coming season) that the Kings could easily absorb. With the Nets re-setting after trading away Mikal Bridges, Johnson should be more readily obtainable than he would’ve been in the past.

• Dorian Finney-Smith (Nets). Finney-Smith is probably the most reliable defender out of this group, but he’s a bit older (age 31) and he’s not very versatile offensively, where he can basically hit threes at a respectable, though not elite, 35% clip. He’s on a really cheap contract at just $14.9 million, so it’s possible the Kings could even get him without sending out Huerter as a matching salary (Jalen McDaniels and another player would have to be involved to keep the Kings under the first apron hard cap).

• Grant Williams (Hornets). Williams is similar to Finney-Smith, but he’s younger and a bit shorter and bulkier. He’s been a bit more volatile in terms of his defensive performance, but he’s a better three point shooter too. He’s only getting paid $13 million this year and he’s locked up for three years.

Of course, there are plenty of other deals the Kings could pursue, but we’ll have to see what else comes up. They can (and in my view, should) continue to see if a big swing for Markkanen can get done, but if that doesn’t materialize, they have several less pricey options that they can pursue before the season starts, or even after.

Reacting to the Kings Draft & Free Agency

With the NBA draft done and the early wave of free agency now over, I wanted to take a quick look at how the Kings have done so far. They sowed up their biggest need early, but there’s been plethora of rumors about potential trades for months now. Those rumors may be warranted, as so far the Kings’ off-season has mostly been about positioning for potential transactions rather than actually making major changes from last season. Let’s check out what’s happened so far!

Key Transactions:

• Re-signed Malik Monk to a 4 year, $78 million contract

• Drafted point guard Devin Carter (Providence) in the first round (pick #13)

• Traded point guard Davion Mitchell, forward Sasha Vezenkov, and two second round picks (#45 this year and Portland’s second round pick in 2025) to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for forward Jalen McDaniels

• Re-signed Alex Len to a 1 year contract for the veteran’s minimum

Monk Comes Back, Answering the Biggest Question Early

The Kings wrapped up their most important piece of off-season business relatively early this year. Ten days before free agency even opened up, ESPN reported that sixth man Malik Monk would return to the team on a 4 year deal worth $78 million, the maximum offer that the Kings could make under the NBA’s CBA (the Kings held Monk’s Early Bird rights, a cap exception that allowed the team to offer Monk up to a 4 year contract with a starting salary of about $17.4 million—equal to 175% of Monk’s $9.95 million salary from last season—and 8% raises per year).

Keeping Monk was by far the Kings’ biggest priority for the off-season, as he’d clearly established himself as a core piece of the roster. Monk’s ability to score and create offense himself was critical for the Kings during the 2023 playoff series against the Warriors, and he’d elevated his play even further during the 2023-24 season by posting career highs in points per game (15.4) and assists per game (5.1). The Kings’ offensive struggles after Monk injured his knee in late March also made his value pretty obvious, as the team averaged just 111.3 points per game in its final 11 games (including two play-in games) despite a season average of 116.6 points per game. On top of that, had Monk left in free agency, the Kings would have had no obvious way of replacing Monk’s microwave scoring off the bench and ball-handling responsibilities. They would have been limited to the #13 draft pick and whatever they could find in free agency—where the team would’ve been limited to using the Non-taxpayer MLE (about $12.8 million) and the Bi-Annual exception (about $4.7 million)—to find replacement scoring.

Kings Snag Top-Tier Guard Depth In Draft

With Monk’s return secured, the Kings headed into the NBA Draft on June 25-26 with the flexibility to fill other needs. Going into the draft, my personal hope was that one of two players from my Five Favorites from this year’s draft might fall to the Kings at pick #13: forward Cody Williams (Colorado) or point guard Devin Carter (Providence). I fully expected both players to be off-the-board by the time the Kings’ pick came around. Fortunately, Carter made it down to pick #13 and the Kings snatched him up!

Although Williams probably would have fit the Kings’ positional needs a bit better (they desperately need help at forward), Devin Carter brings high-level defensive chops, superb length, and elite rebounding skills that should readily compliment De’Aaron Fox and Malik Monk in the Kings’ backcourt. He also showed a knack for scoring and improved three-point shooting in his final season at Providence, which the Kings will hopefully benefit from. I talked about Carter extensively in my Five Favorites post the other week, so I won’t dwell on his talent and fit, but I think he will be a tremendous addition to the Kings’ backcourt and I was happy to see the Kings scoop him up.

I also applaud the Kings decision to draft Carter over some of the younger prospects available, and certainly over reaching for a forward. Carter has the tools to contribute immediately at areas of need, and he’s got enough upside to warrant a high draft pick even though he’s already 22 years old. The younger guard prospects available—Jared McCain (whose game I like a lot), Ja’Kobe Walter, and Bub Carrington—weren’t necessarily better fits. McCain is a younger and a better shooter today than Carter, but he doesn’t have the same physical tools as Carter and lacks the same defensive prowess. With Monk back, Carter’s probably the better fit. Walter and Carrington, meanwhile, both have lots of potential, but it’s subject to a lot of projection. Walter profiles as a strong 3-and-D player, with strong physical tools and a clean stroke, but he didn’t shoot it well during his lone season at Baylor and has a ways to go to develop his handle. Bub Carrington is just 18 years old and did a fantastic job as a freshman in a lead-guard role at Pitt this year, but he’s still growing into his body, he’s not yet a floor spacer (he hit just 32% from three), and his long-term development depends on him having opportunities to play with the ball in his hands. With Fox, Monk, and Sabonis already on the roster, I’m not sure he was going to fit well with this Kings team.

At the same time, by the time the Kings #13 pick rolled around, the draft’s forward depth had already been largely depleted. Cody Williams, Ron Holland, Tidjane Salaun, and Matas Buzelis were already off the board (and I like Carter more as a prospect than several of them anyway). The Kings could’ve gone after older forwards with limited positional size and defensive question like Dalton Knecht, Tristan Da Silva, or Jaylon Tyson, but I’m not sure how that would’ve helped them more than Carter. DaRon Holmes (also one of my Five Favorites) would’ve been a stretch at pick 13. Same for high-potential prospects like Pacome Diadem.

Carter made sense as the pick to me, and I’m happy he fell to the Kings.

Drafting Carter Leads to Immediate Changes

Between re-signing Monk and drafting Carter, the Kings were looking at a team salary that would exceed the luxury tax line. In fact, the Kings were slated for just over $172.3 million in team salary at a minimum, before adding any depth to their front court. That would’ve been about $2.5 million over the NBA’s 2024 luxury tax line of $170.8 million. Obviously, that would' have bene a big deal because, as I’ve written before, luxury tax penalties can be onerous, and teams over the luxury tax aren’t eligible to receive luxury tax distributions from other teams, which can be worth more than $10 million per year. In addition, teams while teams below the luxury tax line can use the Non-taxpayer MLE of about $12.8 million to sign free agents, teams above the luxury tax line can only use the Taxpayer MLE worth under $5.2 million to sign free agents (there are other restrictions, too). Ultimately, getting under the tax line would save the Kings quite a bit of money and make it feasible to add more talent in free agency if they could find targets.

On top of the luxury tax issues, the Kings were staring at a potential log-jam in the backcourt. Presumably, the front office planned for Fox, Monk, Carter, and Ellis to be the main backcourt rotation following the draft, but the Kings also had several other guards returning in Davion Mitchell, Colby Jones, and Chris Duarte (and even though Kevin Huerter is 6’7”, he arguably plays more of a guard-style game).

To alleviate luxury tax concerns and make space for Devin Carter in the backcourt rotation, the Kings made a trade with the Raptors on the second night of the draft that can be accurately described as a “salary dump.” The Kings sent out Davion Mitchell (owed $6.5 million next season), Sasha Vezenkov (owed $6.7 million next season), the #45 pick in the 2024 draft, and a future 2025 second round pick from Portland to the Toronto Raptors in exchange for Jalen McDaniels (owed $4.7 million next season).

By making the deal, the Kings also saved a little under $8.5 million in salary, bringing their team salary number down to just under $164 million (including Devin Carter’s cap hold).

At the time of the deal, I understood the rationale pretty clearly. By drafting Devin Carter, the Kings added a guard who can play defense at a similar level to Davion Mitchell, but with more size, rebounding, and hopefully better offensive production and three-point shooting at a lower cost. Mitchell’s role was likely to shrink (again), and the Kings weren’t likely to bring him back after next season anyway. Similarly, Vezenkov reportedly was unhappy with his role in Sacramento, but his lack of athleticism and quickness on defense meant he wasn’t likely to ever be a significant rotation piece. Both guys were expendable. The cap savings also made it easy for the Kings to re-sign Alex Len at the veteran’s minimum to provide depth at center.

The Kings roster after the trade (and re-signing Len) looks a little more balanced, especially if Kevin Huerter, Chris Duarte, or Colby Jones can fill minutes at small forward:

For better or worse, getting off salary usually requires teams to give up something of value—usually draft picks—so it’s no surprise that the Kings had to give up a couple second rounders to get a small salary dump done. But the price here was a tad high given the Kings shed just under $8.5 million in salary.

Giving up pick #45 in the 2024 draft is fine, but the 2025 Portland second round pick could end up valuable. Portland’s second round pick this year landed at #33, and it’s not obvious they’re going to be much better next season. Jalen McDaniels also has some size and athleticism (he’s the older brother of star Timberwolves defender Jaden McDaniels), but he’s already 26 and just posted by far the worst season of his career, averaging just 3.4 points per game on terrible shooting splits (34.4% / 16.9% / 73.0%). For comparison, the Dallas Mavericks dumped about $11.9 million in salary from Tim Hardaway Jr., about 40% more salary than the Kings dumped, and gave up a 2025 Toronto second rounder plus two 2028 second round picks (Dallas also got Quentin Grimes back, who, like Jalen McDaniels, just posted a career worst season but could be useful in theory). These trades aren’t wildly disparate, but I do think the Kings could have found a way to keep Portland’s 2025 pick given they were already giving up a 2024 second rounder. Though it’s not the end of the world, keeping Portland’s pick would have been nice since the Kings owe a top-12 protected first round pick next year to Atlanta.

I’m also going to miss having Davion on the team in particular. Though his tenure with the Kings was up and down offensively, he brought intensity and effort on defense every time he stepped on the court. His lack of size limited the impact he could actually have defensively at times, but you never questioned his effort. In the right match ups, he was a force defensively—and his dogged effort against Steph Curry in the 2023 playoffs really put him on the map. I hope he can continue to develop his outside shooting to open things up on offense in Toronto. If he can do that, he can be an effective player, especially in a bench role.

What Can the Kings Do Next With the Cap “Flexibility”?

To date, the Kings haven’t made splashy moves with the cap space they created by dumping the salary for Mitchell and Vezenkov, though they did re-sign Len. Accounting for Len’s new deal and Carter’s cap hold, the Kings’ expected team salary should be about $166.1 million, still below the luxury tax line. As a result, the Kings will technically have the full Non-taxpayer MLE available to use to sign free agents if they want to, plus the smaller Bi-Annual exception. But at this point, the best-fitting free agency targets are pretty much all off the table. Some of my preferred free agency targets for the Kings—front court players who can shoot and/or defend reasonably well—have already agreed to deals with other teams:

• Obi Toppin agreed to a big 4 year, $60 million contract to return to the Pacers

• Naji Marshall agreed to a 3 year, $27 million deal with the Mavericks

• Nic Batum agreed to a 2 year, $9.6 million deal with the Clippers

• Jalen Smith signed a 3 year, $27 million contract with the Bulls

• Kelly Oubre signed a 2 year, $16.3 million contract to stay with the Sixers

• Kyle Anderson agreed to a 3 year, $27 million deal with the Warriors

At this point, the front-court free agency market is reed-thin. LeBron James was never actually going to leave LA, and the Kings didn’t have the money to sign him regardless. Miles Bridges is still floating around, but that’s because of off-the-court issues I wouldn’t want to bring into the team anyway. Saddiq Bey is coming off an ACL tear and likely won’t be ready to start next season. Caleb Martin and Haywood Highsmith could be decent fits as defensive wings (Martin more as a perimeter player, Highsmith with more ability to guard power forwards), but they’re probably not worth chasing for more than about $5-6 million per season. Isaac Okoro could be a solid addition in theory, but he’s a restricted free agent and the Cavs could match any offer the Kings extend to him. Simone Fontecchio is also a restricted free agent, but you’ve got to assume Detroit will match any remotely reasonable offer for him given they just traded for him last season.

The net result is that the Kings may not even want to use the Non-taxpayer MLE ($12.82 million) or the Bi-Annual exception ($4.7 million) to sign any of the remaining free agents because doing so would carry them over the luxury tax and hard-cap them at the first apron ($178.1 million). If the Kings use only the smaller Taxpayer MLE ($5.17 million) to add someone, they would only be hard-capped at the second apron ($188.9 million).

The Current Cap Picture

After accounting for drafting Devin Carter re-signing Malik Monk and Alex Len, the Kings will have 13 players on the NBA roster, with an obvious need for more firepower at the small forward and power forward positions.

• PG: De’Aaron Fox, Devin Carter

• SG: Kevin Huerter (SG/SF), Malik Monk, Keon Ellis, Chris Duarte, Colby Jones

• SF: Keegan Murray, Jalen McDaniels

• PF: Harrison Barnes, Trey Lyles

• C: Domantas Sabonis, Alex Len

With this roster, the Kings’ team salary should be just under $167 million when you account for Devin Carter’s expected rookie deal and the $1.3 million in likely incentives that Sabonis can earn in 2024. That’s well over the salary cap and about $3.8 million below the luxury tax line.

[Note that I’m using an estimated $5.63 million for Devin Carter’s salary because he hasn’t yet signed his rookie contract. The NBA has a “rookie scale” that sets salaries for each first round draft slot, but under the CBA, players can sign contracts for up to 120% of that amount—which they typically do (the rookie scale amount for pick #13 is $4.69 million, 120% of that is about $5.63 million). Regardless of what permissible first year salary you assign to Carter, the Kings will be well over the salary cap and safely below the luxury tax line.]

The Kings should also safely below the first apron and the second apron, but it’s a bit complicated. The NBA actually uses different accounting when calculating a team’s “apron salary,” as they require teams to account for even unlikely incentives too. Sabonis and Lyles have $2.5 million in possible unlikely incentives for 2024, so for apron salary purposes, the Kings number will be a tad higher at about $169.5 million. With the current roster, the team will have about $8.6 million of breathing room below the first apron and $19.4 million of room below the second apron.

I’ve tried to lay this all out in an eas(ier) to read chart below:

[Based on data from Spotrac]

Shedding the salaries for Davion Mitchell and Sasha Vezenkov (about $8.5 million salary in total) made sure the Kings were safely below the first apron line—if they hadn’t done that deal, there would be a real risk of the Kings exceeding the first apron. That would’ve prevented them from even having the option to use their Non-taxpayer MLE. It also would’ve brought the Kings closer to the second apron, which comes with additional restrictions.

What Can the Kings Do?

Since the Kings are safely below the first apron, they have some added lee-way to do transactions that might trigger the first apron hard cap, and even more safety to perform transactions that will trigger the second apron hard cap, both this year and going forward. The flexibility is most important when thinking about potential trades, especially if the Kings want to consider trading for some of the marquee names that might be on the market.

If the Kings want to take back more salary in a trade than they send out (which is permitted, subject to certain restrictions, under he NBA’s salary matching rules for trades), they would trigger a hard cap at the first apron—so having some breathing room there is important. This could be relevant for a couple potential trade targets in particular like Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, or Lauri Markannen.

Ingram will make just over $36 million this year, so the Kings would probably need to trade away both Harrison Barnes ($18 million) and Kevin Huerter ($16.8 million) to make the salary matching work, in addition to whatever draft capital they might send out. Even then, the Kings would be taking back about $1.2 million more salary then they send out, which would trigger the hard cap at the first apron. Having some breathing room makes that feasible—if the Kings were instead right up against the first apron hard cap, the trade would probably need to involve another player (such as Chris Duarte), which would complicate things further.

Kuzma’s salary is $23.5 million. Under the NBA’s trade salary matching rules, the Kings could theoretically send just Kevin Huerter plus draft capital and make the deal work. The Kings would take back an extra $6.7 million in salary (the difference between Kuzma’s salary and Huerter’s salary for next year) and trigger the first apron hard cap, but they could absorb the difference into the $8.6 million in space they have below the first apron.

Markannen will make just over $18 million this season. Sending out Huerter or Barnes plus picks is feasible given the Kings have room below the first apron hard cap. While it’s hard to imagine the Kings winning the bidding war for Markannen (the Jazz’s asking price seems wild at the moment), he’s going to be a free agent at the end of the year and I can see why the Kings want to maintain the ability to deal for him if the price changes over the course of the year.

Other potential trade targets with bigger salaries like Zach Lavine (personally not interested) and Jimmy Butler (very skeptical he moves) would also only be realistically possible if the Kings stay far enough below the first apron to take back more salary than they send out. Lavine will make $43 million this year and Butler will make $48.8 million, but it’s going to be tough for the Kings to get to that kind of outgoing salary—especially if they were already up against the first apron. Barnes + Huerter gets you to about $34.8 million, but the Kings would need to add players like Lyles ($8 million) and/or Duarte ($5.9 million) if they wanted to get high enough to not take back more salary than they send out.

For this off-season and through the upcoming season, the Kings are far enough below the second apron that it probably won’t affect them much. That means they can aggregate salaries in trade, trade cash, and use the Taxpayer MLE if they want to (including during the season). The second apron will eventually become a concern if/when De’Aaron Fox signs a new deal and Keegan Murray gets extended, but they’re pretty safely away from it for now.

What’s Next?

In the short term, I am hoping the Kings find a way to snag some depth at forward in free agency. I’m not looking for them to sign a big name (at this point, there aren’t really any), just someone who can help shore up the rotation behind Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes, even if they’re coming in at the veteran’s minimum. If you’re curious, here are some names that interest me from who’s left:

• Probably Too Pricey:

  • Isaac Okoro

  • Precious Achiuwa

  • Simone Fontecchio

  • Caleb Martin

• More Realistic Targets:

  • Haywood Highsmith

  • Reggie Bullock

  • Robert Covington

  • Cedi Osman

  • Oshae Brissett

• Maybe They’ve Got Something Left?

  • Jae Crowder

  • Gordon Hayward

  • Markieff Morris

There are a number of trade targets, too. The big names are obvious, but the ones I’d be most excited about—assuming the Kings don’t need to wildly over-pay to get them (a big assumption)—are below:

• Probably Too Pricey:

  • Lauri Markannen (anything short of Keegan seems palatable)

  • Jimmy Butler (he’s not actually moving)

• More Realistic Targets:

  • Brandon Ingram (not my favorite fit and may be better slotted in the “too pricey” category)

  • Kyle Kuzma (two firsts seems like too much?)

  • Jerami Grant (two firsts seems like definitely too much given his contract)

  • Bobby Portis (maybe Milwaukee would move him? I’m skeptical—same thing for Brook Lopez)

  • De’Andre Hunter (probably not available)

  • Tari Eason (sadly, the Rockets ain’t giving him up)

• Smaller Swings, But Do They Move the Needle?

  • Dorian Finney-Smith

  • Cam Johnson

  • Grant Williams

You’ll notice I didn’t list a couple names, most notably Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan. Both Bulls players have been in a lot of rumors lately, and some folks would like the Kings to trade for them. I’m not as interested in Lavine particularly.

Lavine’s contract is too big for his availability and production, plus his skillset overlaps too much with Fox, Monk, and now Devin Carter to make him the highest use of cap space and trade capital. If the team has any concerns about the first or second apron being a hindrance to future deals, Lavine’s contract is going to be an issue. You can swallow that kind of deal for someone like Markannen, who fits a clear need role and is younger and less injury prone, but it’s tough to do for Lavine.

Derozan’s fit would be better since he’s a bit bigger and can (I think?) slot in at small forward in some line-ups. Plus, Derozan’s end of game shot creation in particular is incredibly valuable. But he’ll be 35 at the start of next season, he’s never been a prolific three point shooter, and his defense isn’t particularly notable at this point in his career. He could be a value add to the Kings even with Monk and Fox, though, and because he’d probably only be available in a sign-and-trade, it’s possible he might come cheaply. I’d be happy to add Derozan in a sign-and-trade if he signs a 2-3 year deal worth about $20 million per season, so long as the Kings don’t have to give up a ton to get him (perhaps Huerter and second round draft capital).

That’s it for now! We’ll have to wait and see what the Kings do next—I’m certainly eager to know. Thanks for reading!

Sacramento Kings: 2024 Off-Season Strategy

Now that it’s mid-May, the NBA playoffs are in full swing and only a handful of teams are still competing. The Kings find themselves on the outside, looking in, after finishing with a 46-36 record and losing their second play-in tournament game to the Pelicans (that loss was their sixth of the season to the Pelicans).

Missing the playoffs is disappointing for any team, but it’s especially tough for a Kings team that finished third in the Western Conference in 2022-23 while breaking a 16-year playoff drought before eventually losing to the Golden State Warriors in seven games.

Last offseason, the Kings’ front office seemed to choose continuity over big changes to follow up their success, as most of the roster changes were really on the fringes. They re-signed forward Harrison Barnes and agreed to an extension with All-NBA center Domantas Sabonis with cap space freed up by trading away backup center Richaun Holmes (along with their 2023 first-round pick). They brought in a handful of rotation players in Sasha Venzenkov, Chris Duarte, and Javale McGee, and made just two second round draft selections in Colby Jones and Jalen Slawson, both of whom played limited minutes this season. They let a handful of back-end rotation and bench players walk through the Holmes trade and departures of Terence Davis, Matthew Dellavedova, Chimezie Metu, Neemias Queta, and PJ Dozier. The theme was clear: run it back with the same core, rely on internal development, and try to make upgrades on the edges.

The strategy from last offseason helped the Kings stay relevant and continue to develop despite late-season injuries to key players like Kevin Huerter (torn labrum on March 18) and Malik Monk (sprained right MCL on March 29). While the Kings finished ninth in the West, they were just 5 wins behind the fourth seeded LA Clippers. They also managed to improve their defensive significantly over the 2022-23 season, jumping up to a defensive rating of 114.4 (14th in the NBA) from a poor defensive rating of 116.0 (24th in the NBA) per NBA.com. That was a meaningful jump defensively, especially given there was a pronounced increase in offensive output league wide. Unfortunately, the Kings’ strides on defense were offset by a bit of a dip offensively, as the Kings fell from 1st in the NBA in offensive rating (118.6) to 13th (116.2). And of course, the Kings won two fewer games in 2023-24 than the previous season even as the Western Conference continued to improve—for context, 10 of the 11 top teams in the West this season improved on their record from 2022-23.

So, things may look very different this time around.

The Kings have some big questions to answer this offseason. The most pressing question is whether the Kings can retain guard Malik Monk, who is set to hit unrestricted free agency. The team also needs to think about how to improve the roster—with an eye toward maintaining the defensive improvements from this past season while getting back to 2022-23 form on offense—with free agency options, a late lottery first round pick, and restrictions on its tradable assets.

I’ll dive into what the Kings should look to do.

The Big Picture

To get a lay of the land, I want to set out the big picture overview. The Kings have eleven full-time players on the roster headed into next season and one two-way player. The team’s core is De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Keegan Murray. As of today, some combination of Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, and Keon Ellis will fill out the starting line-up and be core rotation players, with other returning players like Davion Mitchell, Trey Lyles, Chris Duarte, Sasha Vezenkov, and Colby Jones likely to fill out the backend of the rotation. They also have two-way player Mason Jones under contract, though he’s less likely to play meaningful minutes.

The Kings also hold the #13 and #45 overall picks in the upcoming 2024 draft, meaning the team could add two new players to the roster.

On the flip side, some meaningful players from last year will not be on the roster barring some action in free agency. Malik Monk, Javale McGee, and Alex Len are slated to be unrestricted free agents (meaning they can sign elsewhere once free agency starts), while Kessler Edwards and two-way players Jordan Ford and Jalen Slawson will enter restricted free agency (meaning the Kings can potentially match offers they get from other teams).

Based on data from Spotrac, with just the players currently on the roster (excluding two-way contracts), the Kings will have just shy of $151.6 million in salary on the books—about $10.6 million above the projected salary cap of $141.0 million. They will, however, be well shy of Spotrac’s projected luxury tax line (est. $171,315,000) as well as the first apron (est. $178,655,000) and second apron (est. $189,486,000).

As an over the cap team, the Kings will have three ways to add to their roster: (1) signing free agents (or re-signing their own free agents) using cap exceptions, (2) drafting players, or (3) trading for players. But the salary cap and luxury tax rules are going to be play a huge role in how the Kings go about roster construction as they think about next season.

I’ve written extensively before on the NBA salary cap, cap exceptions, and how the luxury tax line and aprons work, so I won’t cover them in detail here. That said, at a high level, teams over the luxury tax line get hit with additional taxes for each dollar they go over line (how much varies based on how far over they are and how often they exceed the luxury tax threshold) while teams under the tax can receive substantial payments. HoopsHype estimates that non-tax teams will receive about $11.8 million in payouts from luxury tax teams after the 2023-24 season, so going over the luxury tax line can be costly directly and indirectly. And teams that go over the first apron (or second apron) face increasingly onerous restrictions on the types of roster moves they can make.

Having won 48 and 46 games the last two years with a roster centered around stars Fox and Sabonis, who are both in their physical primes, the Kings are in position to compete now. But they will be (and should be) cognizant of how any off-season moves they make impacts the team’s salary cap/luxury tax situation, and they’ll undoubtedly also be thinking about any impacts on the team’s financial bottom line. They also will have to think about the long-term impacts of the moves they make now. Even as the team looks to be more competitive in the short-term, they also have to be mindful of the team’s medium-term and long-term future.

What should the Kings do first? I’ll start with the obvious.

Re-Sign the Sixth Man!

Of the Kings’ six free agents, one stands out above the rest. The Kings should do all they can to re-sign sixth man Malik Monk.

Monk has been the soul of the Kings bench unit for his two years in Sacramento. In just 26 minutes per game off the bench, Monk averaged 15.4 points and 5.1 assists per game, both career highs, with a solid shooting slash line of 44.3% / 35.0% / 82.9% (percentages for twos / threes / free throws). He also finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting despite missing virtually all of the Kings’ last 10 games of the season and both play-in games due to an MCL injury (he might have won the award if he’d stayed healthy).

Monk was also one of the team’s very best ball-handlers and the only player on the roster other than Fox who consistently create shots for himself and others. This was readily apparent toward the end of the season as the Kings often struggled to create offense in the half-court against set defenses, especially without Fox on the court. The Kings sorely missed Monk’s ability to run pick-and-rolls with Sabonis and Len, drive the lane, and create space through step-backs, instead having to rely too much on creation from players who were over-extended. Fox already had a full plate offensively. Sabonis and Murray aren’t yet adept at creating shots for themselves. Barnes couldn’t absorb Monk’s shot-creation volume. Without Monk to bolster the offense, the Kings ended up losing several key games down the stretch because they simply couldn’t score enough despite strong defensive performances. The Kings scored 103 points in the game against Dallas where Monk got hurt, and they scored under 110 points against the Knicks, Celtics, Thunder, Suns, and the play-in game versus New Orleans. They ended up losing all those games.

There’s no real question that the Kings players and coaches want to bring Monk back. Star players De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis made clear how important they think Monk is to the team’s success at the end of the season. Brown called it a “no brainer” that the Kings try to bring Monk back. But whether he returns will ultimately be a decision for Monk and the team’s front office, and that is going to inevitably come down to dollars and options.

Since the Kings will be over the salary cap this off-season, they need to find a cap exception to re-sign Monk. The best exception they can use to re-sign Monk is one of the “Bird rights” exceptions, which generally allow teams to re-sign their own free agents. There are several kinds of Bird rights—Full Bird rights, Early Bird rights, and Non-Bird rights—and they allow teams to re-sign free agents up to different dollar amounts over the cap (to over-simplify, if a player has been under the same contract with the team for longer, they can offer him more money). Monk is wrapping up a two-year contract with the Kings after signing as a free agent in 2022, so the team holds his Early Bird rights. As a result, even though the Kings are over the salary cap, they can offer Monk a four-year contract with a starting first year salary of up to 175% of his 2023-24 salary with 8% raises per year.

Monk’s 2023-24 salary was about $9.95 million, so the most the Kings can offer Monk is a 4-year deal worth about $78 million total (an average of about $19.5 million per year). [Note: if you’re curious, the actual salary amounts would be 17,405,203 in 2024-25; 18,797,619 in 2025-26, 20,190,035 in 2026-27, and 21,582,451 in 2027-28.]

There’s also no reason Monk and the Kings have to agree to a 4-year deal. The Kings could offer him a two year deal for about $36.2 million or a 2+1 deal (two years plus a player option in year three) for about $56.4 million. These could be attractive for the Kings and Monk, as this sort of deal structure would eventually lead to the Kings having Monk’s Full Bird rights, so they could re-sign him for more money on a future contract, while at the same time giving Monk enough short-term financial security to make a contract renewal palatable. He’d also still be able to re-enter free agency during his prime with either structure. For purposes of this article, I’ll stick with assuming a framework offer from the Kings at 4 years for $78 million because I’m a little skeptical that Monk would forego the certainty of added years.

Making such a big offer for Monk would be a big deal for the Kings. Regardless of whether they do a 4-year deal, a 2-year deal, or 2+1 deal, adding Monk to the 2024-25 roster at $17.4 million would push the Kings’ team salary to about $169.9 million. Combined with the approximately $4.7 million the team will need to sign its first-round pick after the draft, the Kings would be about $3.3 million over the projected luxury tax line of $171.3 million. In that case, the Kings would have to pay almost $5 million in luxury tax. And as a luxury tax payor, the Kings wouldn’t be eligible to receive luxury tax payments from other teams, which in recent years have often been over $10 million. The Kings could effectively end up spending an extra $15 million (or more) in taxes and lost tax revenue to re-sign Monk, on top of Monk’s new salary. In a very real sense, re-signing Monk could cost the team closer to $30 million than Monk’s $17.4 million salary next year.

The Kings could try to avoid the tax by trying to get a smaller deal done with Monk or by trading away another player such as Barnes, Huerter, Lyles, Vezenkov, Duarte, or Mitchell. Either approach involves some risk. If the Kings don’t give Monk the biggest offer they possibly can, they’ll make it more likely he walks in free agency. And if they want to trade away salary, they will have to give up something of value (such as draft capital). By way of example, the Kings had to give up their 2023 first round pick to clear Richaun Holmes’ contract off the books last offseason, creating about $12 million in cap space in the process.

Re-signing Monk could also present issues for the Kings in trying to sign other free agents. As an over-the-cap team, they can only sign free agents with cap exceptions—most notably the midlevel exception (“MLE”) or biannual exception. The MLE, which I’ve written about previously, would allow the Kings to sign players up to about $12.9 million or $5.2 million depending on if the team’s salary is under or above the luxury tax line; the biannual exception, meanwhile, is worth $4.7 million. If re-signing Monk takes the Kings over the luxury tax line, the Kings wouldn’t be able to use the non-taxpayer MLE—they’d be stuck at the $5.2 million taxpayer MLE. And if the Kings use the non-taxpayer MLE or the biannual exception at all, they would trigger the NBA’s hard cap rule, which would restrict them from having a team salary higher than the first apron, which projected to be $178.7 million. That probably doesn’t matter a lot for free agency purposes, but it would affect the Kings’ future trade decisions.

And of course, Monk would have to accept the Kings offer, which isn’t a given.

I’ve seen a lot of NBA free agency watchers claim that it’s unlikely Monk stays, presumably because they think some other team will throw a ton of money at Monk in free agency (this year’s free agency class is generally not considered to be elite). That’s certainly a real possibility, though I think it’s less likely than many people assume, and I want to take a little bit of time to explain why.

Free agency is a two-way market. And while Monk and his agent will certainly shop around for the best deal (as they absolutely should), the market this year is likely not going to have a ton of potential bidders for his services.

According to Spotrac, only seven teams are projected to have cap space this offseason. The other 23 teams, including the Kings, are all probably limited to using salary cap exceptions to sign free agents unless they make major changes to their rosters to create meaningful cap space (and remember, getting salary off the books often comes at a price itself).

For the over-the-cap teams, the biggest cap exception they can use to sign Monk is the Non-taxpayer MLE, which is projected to be about $12.9 million and can be used for contracts up to 4 years, with up to 5% annual raises. In other words, the most such teams can offer Monk is a 4-year deal worth about $55.7 million. That’s substantially less than the Kings can offer him, and it’s even well below what the Kings could offer Monk while staying below the luxury tax. This built-in advantage for the Kings is by design, as the NBA CBA gives teams advantages in re-signing their own free agents in the form of Bird rights. Obviously, teams without cap space could make moves to clear up room to sign Monk, but clearing $15+ million in cap space isn’t all that easy to do and it usually involves giving up valuable draft picks. It’s hard to envision over-the-cap teams making such big swings to sign Monk, who is a really good player but not necessarily a set-it-and-forget-it starter for every team.

What about the other seven teams with cap space? Well, some are obvious potential suitors for Monk—but it’s fewer than you might think for a variety of reasons. We’ll go through each of them below.

Detroit Pistons

[up to $64.4 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

The Pistons can easily create enough cap room to make an offer to Monk that exceeds 4 years/$78 million, but there’s a serious question as to whether they would make a push for him. To get the space, the Pistons could free up over $50 million in cap space by renouncing some their free agency rights over several players. The Pistons will likely match offers for restricted free agent Simone Fontecchio, and the Pistons may want to hold onto a flier in James Wiseman, who still has potential at just 22 years old despite the very rocky start to his career, but they can easily do both of those things and still free up enough cap space to make a big offer for Monk if they want to.

But fit questions could slow Detroit down. The Pistons have three young guards who need the ball to develop in Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Marcus Sasser. While Monk would provide them additional outside shooting, the Pistons wouldn’t be able to develop their young guards and fully utilize Monk’s shot creation and burgeoning pick and roll game. They’re also not particularly close to competing, so paying up for Monk, whose skillset overlaps a lot with guys they need to play a lot, isn’t a particularly effective use of cap space. It’s not obvious that the Pistons would want to use their cap space on a player whose skillset is duplicative of what they already have when they could either keep the space or use on alternative free agency options like wing players or off-ball shooters (there are other free agency options with better three point percentages than Monk like Buddy Hield, Gary Trent Jr., or even Klay Thompson).

Philadephia 76ers

[up to $55.5 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

The Sixers could theoretically create over $60 million in cap room this offseason by renouncing all of their free agents and making a few ancillary moves. They’d effectively be rolling forward with a roster of just Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, whoever they can sign in free agency, and minimum guys, but it’s certainly possible. The thing is, if the Sixers choose to go that route, they’re also very clearly signaling that they are going after a top tier free agent—the biggest names being Paul George and (theoretically) LeBron James. They’re not clearly that space to target Monk. It’s hard to imagine the Sixers letting all their rotation guys walk with the goal of adding Monk, whose pairing with Maxey is arguably duplicative anyway. The Sixers could split up their cap space among multiple players and go after Monk at $20 million+ per year, but that’s far from an obvious move for them.

Utah Jazz

[up to $38.3 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

Per Spotrac, the Jazz can create about $38 million in cap space, principally by moving on from Kira Lewis Jr. and Talen Horton-Tucker. The real question is why they would clear that space for Monk. The Jazz already have Collin Sexton, Keyonte George, and Jordan Clarkson on the roster, all of whom share similar skillsets with Monk as score-first small guards. The Jazz also need to consider how to save money to pay Lauri Markannen, who will become a free agent after the 2024-25 season if he’s not extended or traded first. Monk doesn’t fill an obvious need for them.

Oklahoma City Thunder

[up to $35.3 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

The Thunder are deep into the playoffs and could make the Finals this season, but amazingly they still have a lot of cap flexibility. They can create over $35 million in cap space (per Spotrac) this offseason if they want to without losing any of their core players. But they’re unlikely to be bidders for Monk as they already have capable primary ball handlers in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, plus quality 3-D guards like Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Isaiah Joe. If they clear cap space or deal Josh Giddey, the Thunder are likely to target a bigger fish than Monk or someone who can bolster their front court and rebounding, which have been issues for them against the Mavs.

Orlando Magic

[up to $25.2 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

Spotrac projects the Magic to have over $25 million in cap space this offseason, but they can easily push that number up over $35 million by renouncing their free agency rights to non-core rotation players like Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris. They could also free up even more money by letting more important role-players like Jonathan Isaac ($17.4 million), Mo Wagner ($8 million), and Joe Ingles ($11 million) walk. In fact, they can theoretically create over $55 million in cap space if they want to, though it’s pretty unlikely they actually let Isaac in particular move on, so that’s a bit of a fake number. Regardless, it’s meaningful cap space. And the Magic have a clear and obvious need for shooting and ball-handling.

The net result is that the Magic are a serious player in the bidding for Monk next season—and they may be his best bet for a huge contract.

The big questions are how much the Magic want to shake up their roster to create cap space and whether they want to use that cap space to out-bid the Kings for Monk rather than on other free agents. They’ve already been linked to Klay Thompson, who presumably would only leave the Warriors for a significant salary. They also already have Cole Anthony on the roster, who profiles similarly to Monk as a score-first guard with solid-but-not-spectacular shooting, playmaking skills, and below average defense. They could also look at other alternatives to paying up for Monk in free agency, including players who can offer shooting (Buddy Hield, Gary Trent Jr., Malik Beasley), scoring (D’Angelo Russell, Demar Derozan, Alec Burks), and ball handling (Tyus Jones, Monte Morris). And there’s always the trade market.

I could absolutely see the Magic targeting Monk in free agency, and if they want him, they have the firepower to make him a bigger offer than the Kings can. If they throw $20-25 million at Monk per season, that will probably be enough to get him. But given the many options they have on the table, it’s hard to see the Magic dramatically over-paying for Monk’s services—if they’re going to overpay, they’ll probably target somebody higher in the NBA player hierarchy. But they are the team to watch most closely for the Kings.

San Antonio Spurs

[up to $21.3 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

The Spurs can also create a meaningful amount of cap space and need to get some help at guard. Assuming they keep their two first round picks this year and let their free agents walk, they would only have about $7.2 million in cap space, but they can free up another $18 million by letting go of Devonte Graham ($12.7 million), Julian Champagnie ($3 million), and Charles Bassey ($2.5 million), which would give them over $25 million in cap space.

The Spurs have a decent pass-first point guard on the roster in Tre Jones, but rumors are swirling that they want to pair phenom Victor Wembanyama with better perimeter play. Monk could certainly be an option for them, but are they really willing to give him a 4-year deal at $20 million+ per year? Certainly Wemby could make up for Monk’s defensive limitations, but the same could be said for superior offensive players who could become available like Trae Young or Anfernee Simons, both of whom could be obtainable on the trade market. The Spurs also have the #4 and #8 picks in the upcoming draft, so they’ll have at least a chance to add a guard like Nikola Topic, Rob Dillingham, or Reed Sheppard if they want to.

While the Spurs could theoretically make a push for Monk, it’s hard to see them paying up for him when they already have Jones on the roster, they have options in the draft this year, and they can go add a star via trade if they want to. They are probably second to the Magic in terms of potential Monk suitors, but they also have a ton of flexibility and don’t need to rush into getting Monk when better players could become available down the line.

Charlotte Hornets

[up to $5.2 million in projected cap space per Spotrac]

The Hornets are the last team with projected cap space this offseason and they’re basically not in play for Monk. If they keep their free agency rights over Miles Bridges (which seems inevitable, given they didn’t trade him at the deadline this year) and their #6 draft pick, they’ll have only about $8.4 million in cap space—not enough to get into the bidding for Monk. They may even choose to operate as an over-the-cap team, in which case they’d be limited to giving Monk the Non-taxpayer MLE.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are likely to operate as an over-the-cap team, but I want to talk about them briefly because they are the only over-the-cap team that could reasonably make enough room to sign Monk to a big deal without having to totally overhaul their roster.

Toronto has $117.7 million in team salary next year. With a $27.8 million cap hold for Gary Trent Jr. and a $12.5 million cap hold for Immanuel Quickley, they are over the cap (they also have a random assortment of other free agent cap holds, but none are really for critical players). In theory, by (A) renouncing their Bird rights for Trent Jr. and their other free agents, excluding Quickley, (B) declining their team option for Bruce Brown Jr. ($23 million in salary), and (C) letting go of Javon Freeman-Liberty ($1.8 million in salary), Toronto can free up about $30 million in cap space. That would be more than enough to sign Monk.

That’s a pretty enormous opportunity cost to sign Monk, whose skillset overlaps with a player Toronto just traded for in Immanuel Quickley. Presumably Toronto likes Quickley more than Monk, otherwise OG Anunoby might be on the Kings right now. Also, giving up Bruce Brown Jr. in particular seems quite costly—Brown can be an effective player on a playoff team (he won a title with Denver in 2023), he’s got an expiring deal, and his salary would be useful as a trade chip and in salary matching if needed. It seems unlikely Toronto would give up all that for Monk when they could find a true point guard or floor spacer elsewhere in the free agency market.

So what does that all mean?

It all boils down to a pretty simple reality: Monk probably won’t have a ton of suitors in free agency. Aside from Sacramento, there’s a good chance only 1 or 2 teams show serious interest in Monk, at least at salaries in the $15-25 million range. If the Magic or Spurs decide to go another direction—and there are lots of options for them in free agency and the trade market—it’s possible Monk doesn’t end up with the frothy free agency market that many people seem to assume. The Kings should know this, Monk’s agent should know this, and other potential bidders like the Magic and the Spurs should know this. As a result, it’s hard to see anyone coming in over the top with a “blow out the competition” style offer.

Of course, if Monk gets an offer above the 4-year/$78 million contract the Kings can offer, there’s a good chance he takes it. Nobody should blame him either—he’s a free agent, and he’s absolutely earned the right to pick his destination and maximize his earnings. But Monk himself has said “I can go somewhere else with a lot more money and be in a worse situation,” so he’s going to think about the decision from at least a few different angles.

There’s one other thing I want to address.

It’s also possible the 4 years/$78 million the Kings can offer as actually above market for a player like Monk. Grayson Allen just signed for 4 years and $70 million to stay with the Suns. You can quibble about which player is better (Monk is the better ball handler and one-on-one scorer, but Allen shoots better from three and is a better defender), but it’s hard to argue that Monk and Allen are in different tiers as players. And while you can never assume one deal sets the market, obviously Allen and his representatives didn’t think he was going to see a ton more money if he hit free agency, otherwise he wouldn’t have signed the deal when he did.

You can also look at the list below of guard contracts/extensions signed in the last couple of years to get a better sense of where Monk’s eventual deal may fall. What jumps out is that only six deals (in red) have average annual salaries higher than the $19.5 million per year the Kings can offer.

• Dejounte Murray - 4 years, $114.1 million (starting in 2024)

• Devin Vassell - 5 years, $135 million (starting in 2024)

• Jalen Brunson - 4 years, $104 million (starting in 2022)

• Anfernee Simons - 4 years, $100 million (starting in 2022)

• Terry Rozier - 4 years, $96.3 million (starting in 2022)

• Josh Hart - 4 years, $80.9 million (starting in 2023)

• [Theoretical Kings Offer for Monk - 4 years, $78 million]

• Marcus Smart - 4 years, $76.5 million (starting in 2022)

• Keldon Johnson - 4 years, $74 million (starting in 2023)

• D’Angelo Russell - 2 years, $36 million (starting in 2023)

• Grayson Allen - 4 years, $70 million (starting in 2024)

• Bogdan Bogdanovic - 4 years, $68 million (starting in 2023)

• Lu Dort - 5 years, $82 million (starting in 2022)

• Caris Lavert - 2 years, $32 million (starting in 2023)

• Max Strus - 4 years, $62.3 million (starting in 2023)

• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope - 2 years, $30.1 million (starting in 2023)

• Tyus Jones - 2 years, $29 million (starting in 2023)

• Jordan Clarkson - 2 years, $28.4 million (starting in 2024)

• Josh Green - 3 years, $41 million (starting in 2024)

• Austin Reaves - 3 years, $53.8 million (starting in 2023)

• Cole Anthony - 3 years, $39.1 million (starting in 2024)

There are different circumstances for each of the contracts above, but the message is pretty clear—a lot of scoring guards on the starter/sixth man line aren’t getting contracts worth $19.5 million per season or that even go 4 years. With a potentially thin list of bidders, you have to wonder how likely it is that Monk ends up getting offers toward the top of the list.

The Kings can negotiate a new deal with Monk starting the day after the NBA Finals (June 24 at the latest). Monk can start negotiating with other teams on June 30. We’ll have to wait and see, but at least for now there’s good vibes.

What About the Other Kings Free Agents?

Of the Kings remaining free agents, Kessler Edwards and Alex Len should warrant a re-signing look, but it depends a lot on cost and what the Kings do elsewhere in free agency and the draft. I also expect the Kings to sign Jalen Slawson to another two-way contract.

The two remaining free agents—Javale McGee and Jordan Ford (two-way)—aren’t as likely to be back with the team. McGee pretty much lost the backup minutes to Len and will turn 37 next year; McGee theoretically could come back on a minimum deal, but there’s a good chance he’s replaced. Ford won’t be eligible for another two-way contract next year because he’ll be past his fourth NBA season, and he’s not likely to make the NBA roster.

Kessler Edwards

Edwards is a restricted free agent, meaning the Kings will have the chance to match competing offers for him from other teams (assuming they give him a small qualifying offer, which is likely). Edwards still has some intriguing upside as a 3-and-D wing. He’s only 23 years old and has great physical attributes (6’8”, 215 pounds, solid athleticism). He’s also flashed quality defense for stretches and posted decent, though slightly below average, three-point shooting numbers (35% last year on limited volume).

If the Kings re-sign Monk, keeping Edwards could get expensive because of the luxury tax. It’s hard to say exactly what he’d be offered by another team, but it’s unlikely to be much—most RFAs never get offer sheets from other teams, and Edwards really hasn’t done enough in the NBA to warrant another team offering him anything substantial. Still, if Monk is back and the Kings are flirting with the second apron, there’s a decent chance Edwards would end up a cap casualty if he’s offered anything much over the minimum by another team.

If the Kings don’t re-sign Monk, they have a bit more leeway. In that case, they could reasonably match offers for Edwards for a bit more money—think something in the $2-5 million range per season, probably on a 2- or 3-year deal. Anything beyond that starts to get expensive for a back-end rotation player that you’re hoping will develop.

Alex Len

There’s no real question at this point what Alex Len’s role in the NBA is—he’s a reasonable backup center option who has limitations on offense and in handling pick and rolls. He’s probably a minimum player, but he can contribute in that role. Regardless of whether the Kings re-sign Monk, someone needs to fill the backup center role on the roster. If the Kings don’t draft a reasonable back-up center option, Len can fill that role fine for his relatively low cost. And because finding a better backup center than Len in free agency is likely an expensive proposition, I wouldn’t expect the Kings to look at pricier options if they do end up re-signing Monk, even though they could theoretically offer free agents contracts worth up to the midlevel exception or bi-annual exception.

Ultimately, I think there’s a good chance Len is back with the Kings next season. He’s unlikely to get big money elsewhere, so unless he’s offered a clearly better opportunity to play elsewhere, the Kings are probably a good fit.

Jalen Slawson

Slawson is one of the Kings’ two second round picks from last season, as he was selected #54 overall out of Furman. He spent the 2023-24 season on a two-way contract with the Kings and spent most of the year playing for the G League Stockton Kings (he only played 37 minutes across 12 games with the NBA squad). Slawson is again eligible for a two-way contract, so it’s likely the Kings bring him back on another deal.

Find Help In the 2024 Draft, But Where Depends on Monk

The 2024 NBA draft will take place on June 27, less than a week after the Finals end and, importantly, after the Kings can start negotiating a new deal with Malik Monk. As a result, the Kings should have at least some indication of whether Monk is likely to re-sign or not by the time draft night rolls around, though they may not know for sure.

The final draft order is now set and the Kings will be picking twice at #13 (first round) and #45 (second round). What the Kings do with those picks—especially the valuable first rounder—will depend heavily on what happens with Monk.

[Note: It’s also worth flagging that the Kings have a cap hold for the #13 pick—basically a CBA-mandated placeholder for the eventual salary the player will earn (there aren’t mandated cap holds for second round picks). So, the Kings will have to carry a cap charge of about $4.7 million until they actually draft and sign the 13th pick. It’ll come up later.]

If Monk Re-Signs, The Kings Should Focus on Forwards at Pick #13

If the Kings can re-sign Monk, the Kings will have credible ball-handling and scoring support for lead-guard De’Aaron Fox in the backcourt already. They’ll also have decent shooting (Kevin Huerter) and defensive versatility (Keon Ellis and Davion Mitchell). In that scenario, the Kings biggest need would be to find help at power forward or small forward.

Harrison Barnes has been a reliable starter for the Kings since arriving by trade in 2018, but he will be 32 next season and he is not the perfect fit as the team’s starting power forward. While Barnes is a very strong shooter and capable scorer (including off the dribble), he’s been an imperfect fit with Sabonis on the defensive end. Barnes is undersized as 4 and provides limited rebounding and almost no rim protection. He also doesn’t have the quickness, athleticism, or length to stay with forwards who can play on the perimeter or athletic rim runners. In all, it makes for a tough pairing with Sabonis defensively because they can both struggle with similar types of players and can’t rely too much on the other for help.

Drafting a younger, more athletic player to bolster the power forward slot would be nice for the Kings, whether Barnes comes off the bench or not. Without going into detail on draft prospects, there are several players who could fit the role likely to be available at pick #13 in Tristan Da Silva (Colorado), Tidjane Salaun (France), Tyler Smith (G League Ignite), and DaRon Holmes (Dayton). None of them are perfect prospects, but they’d provide help athletically without totally compromising shooting.

The Kings could also look to draft help on the wing at small forward. Keegan Murray has a firm hold on the starting 3 position, but the Kings could use depth behind him. Fox, Monk, Ellis, and Mitchell are all undersized to truly guard wings, and Huerter, not a particularly strong defensive presence to begin with, too often plays than his 6’7” size. Again, there should be a number of options in the draft for support at pick #13, including Da Silva, his college teammate Cody Williams (Colorado), and Dalton Knecht (Tennessee). There could also be options available at the Kings second round pick, though they may have to move up a bit and it’s always risky to project those players as contributors: for example, Ryan Dunn (Virginia), Dillon Jones (Weber State), Baylor Scheierman (Creighton), Alex Karaban (Connecticut).

If Monk Leaves, the Kings Should Also Look for Perimeter Scoring

Losing Monk would be tough for the Kings offensively, as the end of the season showed pretty clearly. They’re unlikely to find a player who can contribute at Monk’s level right away at pick #13, but there are a handful of players who can provide some scoring punch. While the Kings would still have needs at power forward and small forward (and it would be fair to draft those positions even if Monk leaves), finding more perimeter scoring punch and ball-handling would become a bigger team need without Monk.

By pick #13, I’m assuming that top options like Stephon Castle (Connecticut), Nikola Topic (International), Reed Sheppard (Kentucky), and Rob Dillingham (Kentucky) will be off the board. Obviously one of them could fall (don’t forget Tyrese Haliburton dropped way further than expected in the 2020 draft before the Kings picked him at #12), but I’m not banking on it. Still, several guards should be available that can bring scoring, shooting, or defense at varying levels.

Several freshmen—Jared McCain (Duke), Isaiah Collier (USC), and Ja’Kobe Walter (Baylor)—and junior Devin Carter (Providence) could still be on the board by the time the Kings pick. Each brings a slightly different flavor of player, but they’re all capable scorers. McCain, a Sacramento native, can really shoot the ball and scored effectively for a solid Duke team last year, but he has some size limitations. Collier has scoring chops and stellar physical traits for a point guard (he’s 6’5”, 210 pounds), but his shooting was inconsistent, and he had a fair number of defensive lapses. Walter also has a good physical profile and looks to be a quality scorer, but he was a little inconsistent and doesn’t offer much ball-handling right now. Carter is older than the others, but he was more productive last season and plays hounding defense despite being just 6’3”; but he had an outlier year from 3-point range last year, hitting 37.7% from deep, so it’s unclear whether his shooting will sustain going forward.

All these guys (and a few other options) could be solid picks if Monk is on the team, as they could help take some pressure off of Fox to score and handle the ball. Without Monk on the roster, they’d have a pretty clear role on the team.

Finding Free Agency Fits

The Kings will be looking to the free agency market to bolster the roster, but who they can target will be hugely impacted by whether Monk re-signs or leaves. They’ll also need to consider draft strategy and other re-signings like Len and Kessler Edwards before solidifying a free agency strategy. The trade market is a little distinct, but it’s also going to affect how the Kings address free agency generally.

For this post, I want to focus on strategy and the Kings needs rather than specific free agency targets.

Let’s start with laying out what I see as the most significant team needs (before re-signing any of the Kings own free agents and before the draft). The below are in no particular order:

1. Secondary ball-handling

2. Secondary shot creation / one-on-one scoring

3. Additional wing defense and rebounding

4. Improved rebounding, defense, and rim protection at power forward

5. Backup center minutes

Ideally, the Kings can find all of that without compromising too much shooting.

But what should the Kings’ strategy be? As I’ve mentioned, that largely depends on what happens with Monk.

What If Monk Re-Signs?

If the Kings can re-sign Monk, they will basically have addressed their secondary ball-handling and shot creation needs (#1 and #2 from the list above). As I’ve talked about already, this would be financially expensive and likely push the Kings into the luxury tax if they can’t move off another player—but that’s something most teams must do to compete meaningfully in the playoffs.

But re-signing Monk would have a huge impact on how the Kings can play the rest of the free agency market. You have to know some of the cap rules to understand why.

Over-the-cap teams like the Kings can only sign players using cap exceptions. While the Kings can re-sign their own players with Bird rights, the midlevel exception (or MLE) and biannual exception are the two primary ways they can sign other free agents to the roster.

Teams below the luxury tax line can use the Non-taxpayer MLE to sign one or more players to contracts with starting salaries worth up to about $12.9 million (projected) in total. Teams below the luxury tax line can use the Taxpayer MLE, which is similar but projected to worth only about $5.2 million. But whether the Kings are in the luxury tax won’t be assessed until the end of next season. As a result, they can technically still use the larger Non-taxpayer MLE even though re-signing Monk and signing the #13 pick would put their team salary above the projected luxury tax line. If this seems like a loophole, that’s because it is, and it’s one the NBA CBA has already addressed. Thus, under the CBA, if the Kings were to use more than the Taxpayer MLE (e.g., more than $5.2 million) to sign players, they would trigger the hard cap rules, which prohibits the team’s total team salary from exceeding the first apron, projected to be about $178.6 million. Unlike the regular NBA salary cap, there are no exceptions to the hard cap—the Kings wouldn’t be allowed to exceed $178.6 million in team salary.

The bi-annual exception can also be used every other year to sign free agents. It’s a smaller exception, projected to be worth around $4.7 million, and it’s only available to teams below the first apron.

For simplicity, you can refer to the chart below, which lists the exceptions and how the Kings could trigger the hard cap (they could also trigger the hard cap through trades, but that’s not relevant for now):

[Projections from Spotrac]

I’ll also list the salary cap, luxury tax, and aprons for easy reference:

[Projections from Spotrac]

So, the net effect of re-signing Monk would mean the Kings have a few options for other free agents:

• Option 1: Use the Non-taxpayer MLE and/or Biannual Exception to sign free agents, but trigger the hard cap at the first apron, OR

• Option 2: Use only the Taxpayer MLE to sign free agents

Option 1 would give the Kings a chance to bring in better free agents in theory. They’d have a bigger exception to use (up to $12.9 million for a player) and more exceptions available. But because they would be triggering the hard cap, their team salary couldn’t go above $178.7 million, and they’d already be dangerously close with just their current roster, plus Monk at $17.4 million, and their first-round pick—their team salary would be about $173.6 million from those things alone. In other words, even though they would have access to the bigger exceptions, they wouldn’t have a practical way to actually use those exceptions without trading away someone on the roster—potentially important role players Davion Mitchell or Trey Lyles, or even bigger salaries for players like Harrison Barnes or Kevin Huerter. Using Option 1 would also restrict the Kings in other ways. Most meaningfully, they couldn’t take back more than 100% of the salary they send out in a trade—in other words, they couldn’t take advantage of the typical salary matching rules (which I’ve written about before).

Option 2 would be less restrictive, since it wouldn’t trigger the hard cap (the Kings could still theoretically trigger the hard cap with trades), and the Kings probably wouldn’t have to trade any existing players away to maintain flexibility. But the most they could pay a free agent in starting salary would be $5.2 million—probably not enough to lure a significant free agent.

If the Kings can re-sign Monk, they are practically going to be stuck with Option 2 unless they also make a salary cutting trade.

Monk would address needs #1 (secondary ball handling) and #2 (secondary shot creation), and they could re-sign Len to address need #5 (backup center). The team could use its draft picks and the $5.2 million taxpayer MLE to try to address issue #3 (wing defense/rebounding) and #4 (power forward defense/rebounding).

I won’t go into detail on free agency targets for needs #3 and #4, but some players I wouldn’t mind considering that could be available for the Taxpayer MLE are below (unfortunately, none are really game changers):

• Royce O’Neale (he may be too expensive)

• Gordon Hayward

• Jae Crowder

• PJ Tucker

• Kyle Anderson

• Jeff Green

• Taurean Prince

What If Monk Leaves?

Monk leaving in free agency means more needs to fill, but the Kings have a bit more flexibility in who they can target.

Specifically, the Kings will likely be able to use the larger Non-taxpayer MLE and the Biannual exception without worrying about the hard cap. Their team salary would only be about $156.2 million, far enough away from the first apron that triggering the hard cap wouldn’t be a practical concern.

Of course, with Monk out the door, the Kings would have to address all five of the needs I listed before: #1 (secondary ball handling); #2 (secondary shot creation); #3 (wing defense/rebounding); #4 (power forward defense/rebounding); and #5 (backup center). They could still probably re-sign Alex Len to address need #5, but the other four needs would need to be addressed.

With the Biannual exception, the Kings could basically target the same list of players as they could for the Taxpayer MLE. After all, the exceptions are only about $500,000 apart, and most free agent targets in that range won’t have a ton of high-salary options. But they could also try to use the Biannual exception to address other needs like #1 (secondary ball handling) or #2 (secondary shot creation) with players like Reggie Jackson, Spencer Dinwiddie, or Kris Dunn.

The Non-taxpayer MLE would also open up a host of potential free agency options, as the team could look at players who will command much larger starting salaries (up to $12.9 million). This is particularly important to addressing needs #3 (wing defense/rebounding) and #4 (power forward defense/rebounding), as those needs might be harder to fill in the draft or with the smaller Taxpayer MLE. A couple players who could be get-able with the Non-taxpayer MLE stand out as particularly good fits for the Kings.

Naji Marshall. Marshall is an unrestricted free agent and the Pelicans are looking to tamp down salary, so he probably won’t get a huge offer to return to New Orleans. He’s a good defender who can hold up on the wing and has the size and strength to play minutes at power forward. If his improved shooting (38.7% from three this year, the highest of his career) is real, he would be a solid addition to the Kings’ front court. It’s possible Marshall will sign a deal worth less than the full Non-taxpayer MLE, which would be a nice get.

Obi Toppin. Toppin is a solid modern power forward option. He’s competent defensively and his size/length/athleticism would make him a better defensive alternative to Barnes for rim protection and on the glass. He’s also more switchable. He’s a more proven shooter than Marshall, but he also set a career high this year by hitting 40.3% of his threes—which would be stellar if it sticks. Unlike Marshall, Toppin is a restricted free agent. The Pacers would get 24 hours to match any offer the made to him, which means the Kings would be in limbo for a bit at the start of free agency while they wait and see if the Pacers match. That’s a serious risk, as the Pacers might well consider Toppin good enough to warrant matching a contract worth the full Non-taxpayer MLE or more. I’d love to have him on the Kings, but going after him is a bit risky.

There are also a bunch of other potential free agents who may be get-able with the Non-Taxpayer MLE. These include wing options like Nic Batum, Kelly Oubre, Robert Covington, and Royce O’Neale (who may sign for less); guards like De’Anthony Melton, Markelle Fultz, and Malik Beasley; and even some bigs like Isaiah Hartenstein (probably not worth the cost), Jalen Smith, and Mason Plummer. For the Non-taxpayer MLE, I’d advocate focusing on wings, but the Kings would have options.

Be Opportunistic with Trades

The Kings don’t have the biggest war-chest of any team on the trade market, but they’ve held on to enough future draft assets and tradable contracts that they can throw a competitive bid in if the right deal comes along. The Kings owe the Hawks a top 12-protected first round pick in 2025 (which rolls over to top 10-protected in 2026 if it doesn’t convey), but they otherwise control all their own first rounders. I’ve written in detail about the rules governing trades for first round picks, but the important thing to keep in mind is the Kings can feasibly trade a bunch of first round picks if they need to (there are details they’d have to iron out, but it’s workable).

If the Kings want to target an All-Star or near All-Star level player, they’ve got the assets to do so—but they will need to be careful to avoid hard-capping themselves and making a future trade more difficult. They could still theoretically do a big trade if they re-sign Monk, but it’s going to be more difficult if they do because of the hard cap.

I’ll probably do a separate post looking at potential trade scenarios in more depth, but I want to quickly lay out some thoughts on a few high-profile trade names that have been floating around recently.

Paul George

Paul George is everyone’s favorite potential trade target right now, given he has a player option for 2024-25 and hasn’t yet agreed to an extension with the Clippers. He would be a near-perfect fit for a lot of teams, including the Kings. He can provide scoring, ball-handling, shooting, and quality defense for positions 1 to 4.

But getting George is going to be insanely expensive in trade for exactly that reason, and it would be tough for the Kings to put together a winning trade package. To get close, the Kings would probably have to give up as many first rounders as they can—2024 on draft night, plus future picks in 2027 (which they would have to free up from the Hawks), 2029, and 2031 to even make a competitive offer. They would also need to send out Huerter, Barnes, and another player to make the salary match. It’s also a given that the Clippers would ask for Keegan Murray back, although the Kings shouldn’t be willing to trade him away if they’re also sending meaningful draft pick compensation.

On top of the outgoing picks and players, trading for George is practically going to require giving him a max extension that would cover him into his late thirties. The details of the contract are subject to projections and some nuance based on what George actually wants and something called the Over 38 rule, but most likely the Kings would be signing up to pay George over $200 million for the next four seasons at a minimum (as a 10 year veteran, George can get sign a max contract with a starting salary of up to 35% of the salary cap in the first year, just over $49.3 million). That’s real money, but it’s basically table-stakes to get George interested in a deal—the whole reason he hasn’t re-signed with the Clippers yet is because they haven’t offered him that contractual certainty.

In terms of draft capital and dollars, bringing in a player of George’s caliber could be worth it—especially if it allows the Kings to compete for a championship. But it’s an enormous risk for an aging player, and you have to wonder if George is good enough to make that kind of all-in play worthwhile.

Brandon Ingram

The Pelicans are reportedly putting Brandon Ingram on the market. He’s going into the last year of his current contract and slated to make $36 million in 2024-25, so just like with Paul George, any team looking to acquire him should plan to offer him a lucrative new deal quickly.

Even though he is only 26 years old, Ingram is heading into his eighth season in the NBA. He’s been an All Star once before, and throughout his five seasons in New Orleans, he’s put up near-All Star level numbers. Given his age, one might expect him to draw more trade interest than Paul George, but he’s not quite the same seamless fit as George for most teams (the Kings included). On the offensive end, Ingram is a good scorer who can create his own shots, score at all three levels, and distribute effectively when he needs to. But he’s not the same level of knock-down three point shooter that George is, and at times his shot diet can weight a little too much toward midrange shots and isolations. And defensively, Ingram is just a bit above average—he doesn’t provide the same elite wing defense that a player like George can. Ingram also has a pretty consistent injury track record lately, as he’s played 65 games or more only once in his career as a rookie (for the record, George has had plenty of injuries too).

Still, Ingram is likely to attract a fair amount of interest if he’s really on the trade block, and it won’t be cheap to acquire him. The package of four first round picks that the Kings would need to give up for George would likely be too much for Ingram, but the price could get close. New Orleans may also be unwilling to take back a lot of salary either, since money is part of the reason they’re looking to move on from Ingram. Would they take back both Huerter and Barnes in a deal to make the salaries match, or would they insist on getting a third team involved?

The Kings could probably absorb the hit of draft picks and matching salary needed to bring in Ingram. He would also fill the team’s need for another scorer and ball handler, while offering better defense on the wing than Huerter or Barnes (he may not fare much better at power forward defensively, but Keegan Murray could guard up if needed). But I'm still wary of taking a swing on Ingram because of how hard it would be on the Kings’ salary cap situation. Ingram won’t be eligible for the same maximum salary as George because he’ll only have 9 years of NBA service by the time his free agency rolls around, which means a max contract for him would be capped at 30% of the salary cap at a projected starting salary of $42.3 million. But he can sign a 5-year extension that carries him through the 2028-29 season, too, for a total contract value of over $245 million. While that’s less dollars per year than George, it’s a longer commitment with even more total dollars. Regardless, it has the same practical effect on the Kings’ long-term cap situation: the team would be above the salary cap, in the luxury tax, and potentially above the first apron (or even the second apron) with Fox, Sabonis, and Ingram on the roster for the foreseeable future.

Fox, Sabonis, Ingram, and Murray would be a solid team for sure. The floor spacing offensively would be a bit worrisome and the team wouldn’t really scare anyone defensively either, but they’d have a ton of weapons and varied skillsets. But is it enough to make this the one big shot they take? If they do make a move for Ingram, it’ll basically lock them into the roster, with little ability to improve on the margins and few future draft picks available to supplement the roster.

Ultimately, a trade for Ingram is something the Kings front office will have to consider, but whether it’s worth it depends a lot on the trade cost in particular. Smaller deals could improve the team and maintain more future flexibility, while waiting to take a big swing on a better fit would also be a viable strategy.

Jerami Grant

Portland is in a seriously rough salary cap situation given the fact that their team isn’t all that close to competing for the playoffs yet. They have four players under contract with over $20 million in salary, and two of them—Jerami Grant and Malcolm Brogan—are over 30. Just a year ago, Portland signed Grant to a 5 year, $160 million deal, so they don’t need to trade him immediately, but they may be willing to part with him for the right price.

From the Kings perspective, Grant would bring helpful length, athleticism, and scoring on the wing. Though he’s only slightly above average in scoring efficiency, Grant does have scoring chops (he’s averaged over 19 points per game for the last four seasons) and shoots it well from deep at over 40% for the last two years. He does a good job of drawing fouls, too. With that said, he’s not as talented of a scorer as George and Ingram, and his defensive impact is often less than you’d expect from an athletic wing with Grant’s length. Per Dunks and Threes, Grant was in the 38th percentile of defenders last season in terms of Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus, and he’s posted negative numbers in terms of Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus stat for the last five seasons. His rebounding is also surprisingly lacking—in terms of rebounding rate, he’s less effective than incumbent power forward Harrison Barnes on the glass.

Grant comes with a salary cap charge of $29.8 million next year, so if the Kings take him on, they’ll likely be in the luxury tax (especially if they can re-sign Monk). But because the Kings would have to send out matching salary (probably in the form of Barnes and Huerter), they can find ways to avoid the hard cap and stay below the first apron. That makes Grant a bit more attractive as a trade candidate compared to George and Ingram since the lower contract value is useful for the team’s roster construction.

But Grant may not really move the needle much at all. Adding Grant would give the Kings’ secondary scoring and a slight defensive improvement on the wing, but it wouldn’t really help with rebounding or ball handling.

If Portland is looking for a couple first rounders for Grant, the Kings ought to consider whether he’s worth the price. I would personally look to other options for that level of compensation, especially given the Kings would probably have to ship out Barnes and Huerter, but there’s at least a solid argument for snagging Grant at that price. But if Portland has an asking price is any higher, it’s not an obvious win—it would make more sense to hold onto the draft equity for the future.

Wrap Up

That’s all I’ve got for this round. I will try to take a deeper look at individual draft targets, free agency targets, and trade candidates down the line. Let me know if you want to hear about anyone in particular!