What I’m Watching For: Nuggets v. Timberwolves
The second round of the NBA Playoffs starts this weekend in the Western Conference with the Denver Nuggets squaring off against the Minnesota Timberwolves. This figures to be a fun series, with the NBA’s best player Nikola Jokic and ascendant star Anthony Edwards headlining.
By the numbers, the Wolves and Nuggets are pretty evenly matched this year. The Nuggets went 57-25 with a +5.3 point differential for the season compared to the Wolves 56-26 record with a +6.5 point differential. Minnesota is the stronger team defensively, as their 108.4 defensive rating was best in the league per NBA.com, compared to the Nuggets’ 112.3 defensive rating (8th). The Pups were more middling offensively, though, especially when compared to the Nuggets—Minnesota’s 114.6 offensive rating ranked just 17th overall, while the Nuggets’ 117.8 offensive rating was good for 5th.
In the head-to-head matchups, the teams went 2-2 against one another, but it’s hard to read too much into that record as a few stars missed games, including Karl-Anthony Towns (3 games), Rudy Gobert (1 game), and Jamal Murray (1 game).
The relative parity this year contrasts a bit with last year’s playoffs, however, as the Nuggets completed a Gentleman’s Sweep (4-1) of the Timberwolves in the first round, with the Wolves managing to pull out their one win at home in overtime. While the comparatively young T-Wolves squad did put up a good showing despite missing key contributors Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid, the series was never really competitive as the Timberwolves struggled to pull through in late-game situations, where the Nuggets have thrived for years.
With more experience under their belts, a healthy roster, and a much stronger defensive identity in year two following the trade for Rudy Gobert, it’s reasonable to expect the Timberwolves to put up a much stronger fight this time around.
The Nuggets are the reigning NBA Champs, so it’s not surprising they are (and should be) heavy favorites to take the series. They’re negative -205 to win the series on FanDuel right now, making them roughly a 2-to-1 favorite. Whether Minnesota can pull out the series win will depend on a number of things, but I’m dialed in on a few of them. I’ll dive into them below.
How Is Ant’s Pick & Roll Decision-Making?
Anthony Edwards absolutely roasted the Phoenix Suns for four games in the first round, averaging an efficient 31 points (on 51.2% from the field and 43.8% from three), 8 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. He also trash-talked Kevin Durant mercilessly and drew lofty comparisons to Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant from some real NBA luminaries.
Ant’s success in the series came as a result of elite outside shooting and fantastic decision-making when running pick and rolls.
It’s not that interesting to focus on the shooting. Edwards shot 35.7% from three this season and has shot 35.3% for his career; if he’s draining 43%+ of his threes, he’s going to be a huge problem. We’ll see if that continues—he’s getting mostly good looks, but I’m wary of the numbers coming back down a bit.
But how Ant has handled the pick and roll more generally feels different. It’s been a staple of Minnesota’s half court offense, especially in the playoffs, but he seems to be making superb reads quicker than he has in the past.
Take a look at these clips from the Wolves-Nuggets game on April 10. In a high-leverage game that had huge impact on seeding, Edwards was a bit hesitant coming off picks. On both plays below, Edwards doesn’t attack the screen with urgency, so the Nuggets never really have to compromise to address his attack.
In this first clip, Edwards does a hesitation dribble that lets the trailer defender Kentavious Caldwell-Pope recover. Jokic also doesn’t have to step up, which lets him stay straddle between cutting off Edwards and preventing an easy pass to Rudy Gobert as he dives.
Here’s a second clip.
You can see in this clip that Wolves intentionally bring Jamal Murray up into the action since he’s a weaker defender than Christian Braun. Because Edwards doesn’t attack the screen forcefully, Murray can just sit back in the driving lane. Edwards again has a slight hesitation before pulling up for a contested three—though it’s a makable shot for him, ideally you’d like to see him get downhill. Murray is too small to prevent Edwards from driving, and even a little bit of space would be enough for Edwards to hit either Mike Conley coming off the weak side flare screen or Gobert if Jokic rotates to cut off the Edwards drive.
On a few occasions, the Nuggets decided to double Edwards off the pick and roll. It’s a common strategy that teams across the league have been trying with ball-dominant guards, as it forces the ball away from the best creators on the opposing team. Edwards has seen this in some games, but it’s not utilized against him as often as with players like Luka Doncic or Jalen Brunson.
Edwards struggled with the double twice here. In the first instance, he didn’t get off the ball soon enough—it should go to Gobert, who should then pass out of it (in fairness to Edwards, Gobert gives up on the screen early, so that action probably wasn’t going anywhere). It’s fine, though, because Minnesota is able to reset. On the second screen, Jokic again moves to trap Edwards. To his credit, Edwards gets on Jokic’s hip, but given where he is on the floor, he’s left with the choice to make a really tough pass to Gobert or Jaden McDaniels in the corner, or to launch a three fading behind the backboard (which he did, and missed).
I want to make clear that these clips aren’t a major issue or anything close to it. Most pick and roll ball-handlers, other than true stars with serious passing chops, can run into these kinds of issues. In each of the clips, the defense was sound, and they even mixed up their approach from time to time. No matter how good he is, Edwards isn’t going to win these actions all the time. But these are the kinds of actions that Edwards needs to win consistently for the T-Wolves offense to be productive enough against elite teams in the half court.
That said, what’s really amazing is how much better Edwards has been at handling these situations in the playoffs this year. Against Phoenix, he was much more consistent about attacking pick and roll defenses aggressively and getting the ball out early when double-teams occurred.
For example, here’s a clip of Edwards dribbling straight past Royce O’Neale when he tries to switch a pick and roll.
What I like about this clip is that Ant attacks O’Neale immediately as soon as he realizes that O’Neale is giving up the middle lane. While Edwards is dribbling into the help defense (Kevin Durant, Eric Gordon, and the remains of Josh Okogie, who got completely wiped out of the play on the screen), his decisive attack puts a lot of pressure on Phoenix. Durant either has to stick to Towns, an elite three point shooter, or try to stop Edwards’ drive. Eric Gordon at the top of the screen similarly has to choose between sticking with Nickeil Alexander-Walker or stepping up to the drive. That puts Edwards at a decided advantage with multiple options, even if he ultimately is good enough to just take an easy lay-in.
This next clip shows Edwards getting off a double-team as soon as it comes. While it’s not off a pick and roll, Edwards does a good job recognizing that the defense is already compromised and will be forced into a tough rotation if he swings the ball.
The result is a clean look from Jaden McDaniels for three.
He also did a good job getting off doubles after a pick and roll. Here’s one where the quick pass out of the double-team leads to an easy shot for Kyle Anderson (nevermind that Anderson misses the bunny):
Edwards, of course, didn’t transform completely in the Suns series. He still has a tendency to hesitate a bit at the top of a pick and roll. That can work against slower defenders, like in the clip below where his hesitation freezes Jusuf Nurkic.
Still, he’ll want to attack these situations directly and with more urgency against the Nuggets, who handle pick and roll defense much better than the Suns. That will help force the Nuggets into difficult compromise situations to open up looks for Edwards or his teammates.
Will KAT Bully Smaller Guys On the Glass?
The Nuggets have tried to play just about everyone on Anthony Edwards for stretches. In their last game, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Christian Braun, and Michael Porter Jr. all spent time trying to defend Ant.
In an ideal world, Denver would prefer to park KCP on Edwards for the whole game. He’s a solid perimeter defender, and if he can at least contain Edwards a bit, Denver can let Aaron Gordon focus on Towns. But there’s a good chance that Edwards has become too much for KCP to handle for huge stretches given his strength and height advantage. Edwards roasted everyone the Suns tried to throw at him, including running straight through bigger players like Royce O’Neale, Kevin Durant, and Josh Okogie. If that happens, the Nuggets may need to shift their bigger bodies to Edwards just to hold up better at the point of attack. Even if it doesn’t, the Wolves will look for ways to get guys like Michael Porter Jr. and Jokic on Edwards to take advantage of his lateral quickness.
When the bigger guys are on the perimeter guarding Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns needs to capitalize big on his extreme height advantage over Denver’s guards and perimeter players that might be switched on to him. Towns should be able to easily shoot over smaller defenders like KCP, Murray, and Braun if they end up on him, but he can also use these mismatches to generate rebounds. Whenever Gordon is off of him, Towns should be looking to take advantage of his size.
The Wolves dominated the Suns in the first round partly off the strength of their rebounding. They averaged 48.2 rebounds per 100 possessions (14.3 offensive rebounds and 33.9 defensive rebounds). That was a dramatic improvement over their season-long averages, particularly on the offensive glass; the Timberwolves averaged 44.3 total rebounds per 100 possessions for the season (11th overall), with 34.7 defensive rebounds and 9.5 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions.
Towns’ size advantage should give the Wolves opportunities to win on the offensive glass in particular, if he wants it. Towns can be inclined to drift around the perimeter to hunt threes, but when he has smaller defenders on him, he should be looking to take advantage. Other than Nikola Jokic, who will frequently be occupied trying to keep Rudy Gobert off the glass, Denver doesn’t have anyone who can out-rebound KAT consistently—especially if Gordon or MPJ is on Edwards.
Offensive rebounds aren’t the core of KAT’s game, but he’s more than capable. Getting second chances will be especially important for a T-Wolves team that sometimes struggles in the half court.
I’m not hoping to see Towns to play like Shaq and try to post up smaller players. That would clog things up too much offensively for the Wolves, especially when Gobert is on the floor. It also risks Towns getting into foul trouble quickly given he’s not a natural post player and can be prone to bowling through defenders too clumsily. But if he can follow drives to the basket and look to crash readily on the glass, he could really generate a lot of extra opportunities for the Wolves.
Can Denver Punish Minnesota For Putting Gobert On Gordon?
A fair number of teams—including the Lakers last series—have concluded that stopping Nikola Jokic is basically impossible, no matter how good the individual defender you throw at him is. Instead, teams that have a good rim protector have often opted to try having another big-ish player guard Jokic while their best help defender (usually a center) matches up man-to-man with Aaron Gordon. The theory is pretty simple and sensible: you can’t stop Jokic one-on-one, so have a quality help defender ready to pounce and risk Aaron Gordon beating you from the perimeter. Gordon shooting isn’t that risky as he shot just 29% from three this year, and he’s a 32.3% shooter from three for his career.
I’m so excited to see how Denver attacks this matchup. If Denver can figure out how to consistently take advantage of Gobert sagging off Gordon to play help defense, it’s going to be difficult for Minnesota to slow Denver’s offense down enough to win.
I’m sure that Denver coach Mike Malone and his staff have cooked up dozens of ways to attack the Gobert-Gordon match up, but I want to tick through a few that I think are potentially interesting.
Perhaps the most obvious option is simply getting Gordon involved in the pick and roll to force Gobert into the action and away from the basket. There are basically four options here: Gordon as the screener for Jokic; Gordon as the screener for another shooter (not Jokic); Jokic as the screener for Gordon; or another shooter (not Jokic) as the screener for Gordon. All of these actions force Gobert into the mix and away from the basket.
If Gordon screens for Jokic, it’s likely going to be a big-on-big screen since it’s hard to imagine the Wolves trying to stick anyone smaller than Karl-Anthony Towns/Naz Reid/Kyle Anderson on Jokic regularly. Bigs aren’t used to fighting over screens, so Gobert is probably going to have to play at the level of the screen or hedge even higher to prevent Jokic from shooting or getting crystal-clear passing lanes. Jokic doesn’t have blow-by speed, so that’s probably the right call—but the Wolves have to hope that Jokic can’t find an open shooter or cutter out of the action early.
If Gordon screens for another shooter (think Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, or even Reggie Jackson), Gobert would still be drawn into the action and away from the basket. Gobert likes to play drop coverage on screens, where he falls back to defend against the drive and roll—but with a good shooter, that drop often has to be slower. That can make time for Jokic to find space on the weak side and get deep position against a weaker defender, with Gobert out of place to provide adequate help.
Gordon can also act as the primary ball-handler in a screen with Jokic or another shooter, but there’s a good chance that both defenders would still with the screener (Jokic or the shooter) rather than try to follow Gordon over the screen. Obviously, Gordon could shoot from there since he’d be wide open. He could also try to get downhill quickly and put pressure on the paint, but that’s not really his game. I don’t expect the Nuggets to rely Gordon as the ball-handler (and I can’t think of times they’ve used it regularly) because it puts Gordon in positions he isn’t really used to.
Another option is getting Gordon to set off-ball screens for a better shooter like Michael Porter Jr. or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. With Gobert looking to help on Jokic, Gordon can sit in the weak side corner and opportunistically look to set back-picks or flare-picks for Denver’s stronger shooters. Here’s a really crude example (sorry my artwork sucks):
Denver can also let Jokic go to work on the opposite side of the paint from Gordon, especially further down the block. Jokic is really comfortable one-on-one in this area, and he’s going up against a below average defender in Towns here (because Gobert is on Gordon). For Minnesota, this is a tough look to deal with. Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley can’t help out easily or they will leave quality shooters. Gobert has a lot of ground to cover between Gordon and helping Towns. And if he moves too far toward Jokic, Gordon will be able to operate from the dunker’s spot, where he has a variety of moves to finish and can comfortably cut into the middle of the paint. Again, here’s another crude drawing to show how difficult Gobert’s responsibility gets—the shaded area is basically what he has to cover even if Gordon opts not to extend to the three point line:
The last thing I’ll address is that Gordon can just shoot it better, too. Denver might just let him shoot! Though his shooting was down a bit this year, in 2021-22 and 2022-23, Gordon shot 33.5% and 34.7% from three point range. He also shot 39% from three in the playoffs last season, and Gordon’s shooting was a big part of what let Denver win the Western Conference and the title last season. If Gordon can shoot closer to 35% from three (which is certainly possible), Minnesota’s strategy of helping on Jokic is going to be much less effective.
I had to cut myself off rather than dream up new things that Denver hasn’t shown much yet. But needless to say, this is going to be interesting—I’m super excited to see how the series will go.
Who’s Gonna Win?
Just in case folks are curious, I’m picking Denver to pull the series out in six games. Their offense is exceptionally versatile and their long playoff experience will probably come into play at some point. With that said, Minnesota is absolutely capable of pulling out the series. I suspect the T-Wolves to figure out the best ways to slow down Denver’s offense (to the extent that’s even possible), and their size and length should give them as good of a chance as anyone to win. If Anthony Edwards can reprise his pick and roll efficiency and three point shooting and Karl-Anthony Towns makes his presence known on the boards (Minnesota would benefit from Jaden McDaniels doing the same), the Pups could generate enough half-court scoring to win the series—but they’ll need to be more consistent than they’ve been in the past to do so.