NFL Draft First Round Reactions

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft wrapped up last night. There were a fair number of expected picks and also some truly surprising developments.

In all, 32 players were drafted: nine offensive linemen, seven wide receivers, six quarterbacks, five edge rushers, three cornerbacks, one defensive tackle, and one tight end (no running backs, linebackers, or safeties were taken in the first round).

Let’s jump in with reactions to each pick.

Pick #1: Chicago Bears

With the first pick, the Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams, quarterback from University of Southern California.

No surprise here. For weeks, everyone has expected the Bears to take Caleb Williams, and this was a no brainer pick in my view. Williams showed incredible skill at USC, with a strong arm, accuracy, and a remarkable ability to make throws from odd angles and off-platform. Williams will join a Chicago Bears offense with a ton of talent at the skill positions, led by veteran Pro Bowl wide receivers like DJ Moore and the newly acquired Keenan Allen (we’ll talk about who else they added to the receiver room later).

Given the value of quarterback, there’s nothing to critique about this pick. The Bears will still have to develop Williams into a star, but they filled their most important position with the consensus top talent in the draft at the position. This is the right pick that was only made possible by the Bears trading away last year’s #1 overall pick to the Panthers (who selected Bryce Young) for Moore and a haul of draft picks.

Pick #2: Washington Commanders

With the second pick, the Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels, quarterback from Louisiana State.

Like the Bears, the Commanders needed to find a quarterback in this draft. Daniels had a tremendous year at LSU, leading the country in passing yards and throwing for 40 touchdowns. Obviously, the Commanders liked Daniels the best of the remaining quarterbacks, and I agree. He gets the ball out quickly even though he was asked to make full field reads in college and he has elite touch throwing to the deep part of the field. He also has world class speed for the quarterback position, which may come into play if Washington doesn’t find a way to improve its offensive line play. I expect them to look for offensive line help on Day 2 of the draft so they can protect Daniels—he’s on the slim side, so they’ll want to avoid having him take too many hits.

Really great pick by the Commanders. They’ve got a ceiling raiser in their building.

Pick #3: New England Patriots

With the third pick, New England Patriots select Drake Maye, quarterback from North Carolina.

Maye has elite tools for a quarterback prospect. He’s big, strong, fast, and throws the ball well. He’s not as consistently accurate as Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels at this point in his career, which is part of the reason he goes third here.

From the Patriots perspective, this pick makes perfect sense. The team let Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick go this offseason, effectively hitting the reset button (he won six Super Bowls with the team over the last 23 years as head coach). They had no clear long-term option for quarterback on the roster. With a toolsy player like Maye still on the board, it’s a great opportunity for the team and quarterback to develop together. The Pats also have veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett on the roster, so to the extent they need to give Maye some time to develop and work on his decision-making and consistency, they can do so.

The Pats opted not to trade out of pick #3 to accrue more draft capital. The roster needs an overall talent infusion, so I’m sure there was some appeal to the idea of trading back for more picks. That said, I think it’s the right call to snag your franchise quarterback if you believe in the guy available—and clearly the Patriots do. Plus, at this point it’s still unclear whether a good offer was ever made by other quarterback needy teams like the Vikings or Broncos, so there’s no reason to assume trading back would make sense.

The Pats have an answer to their biggest open question, and they rightfully should be happy about that. Maye’s ceiling is incredibly high—they’ll have to find a way to help him maximize his talents.

Pick #4: Arizona Cardinals

With the fourth pick, the Arizona Cardinals select Marvin Harrison Jr., wide receiver from Ohio State.

Pick #4 was a potential pivot point in the draft, but it turned out pretty chalky as the Cardinals opt to keep their pick and select Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s nothing to criticize about this pick—the Cardinals had a huge need at wide receiver, a premium position, and they filled it with a player who has been atop many draft watchers’ boards for almost two years. Harrison Jr. will be the most talented receiver on the Cardinals the first time he steps on the field, and he gives Kyler Murray a go-to receiver who can work at all three levels of the field.

I wonder whether the Cardinals would have taken a godfather offer for this pick if they’d received one (given how the rest of the draft went, it seems doubtful they did). They have enough needs on the roster that I would’ve probably moved back. But without knowing they got such an offer, they made a strong choice, even though my personal receiver of choice in the draft was Malik Nabers.

Pick #5: Los Angeles Chargers

With the fifth pick, the Los Angeles Chargers select Joe Alt, offensive tackle from Notre Dame.

Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff have said repeatedly they want to strengthen the Chargers’ offensive line, so it makes sense that they would use their biggest draft asset on an offensive lineman. Joe Alt is, by consensus, the most complete offensive tackle prospect in the draft. He’s a fantastic pass blocker and sturdy in the run game and he does a good job avoiding penalties. Most importantly, he almost never misses an assignment, which an invaluable trait for offensive lineman (and one that is surprisingly often missing). He’s also allowed just two sacks in the last two years.

Alt played his entire collegiate career at left tackle and the Chargers already have a Pro Bowl left tackle on the roster in Rashawn Slater. That means one of the two will be playing another position next season. I’m guessing Alt at right tackle, but we’ll see. As a consequence, it’s hard to say this pick is the highest use of value even if it fits the team’s philosophy. Still, offensive tackle (on either side) is a high-value position, and the Chargers clearly weren’t content with their current options. Last year’s right tackle Trey Pipkins did not have a strong season and has struggled with blocking downhill in the run game for a couple years. Right guard Jamaree Salyer also struggled last season, though he had success as a rookie at left tackle filling in for an injured Slater.

It’s clear the Chargers are committing to an organization-wide philosophy that centers on high-level offensive line play. That makes a ton of sense given some of the most successful teams in football have rolled out top-5 offensive lines regularly (think the Philadelphia Eagles in recent years). There’s also some benefit to zigging while other teams zag, and as team’s league-wide have built defensive rosters to combat the pass, they’ve gotten smaller and potentially more susceptible to run-oriented teams with size up front. Drafting Alt isn’t going to automatically turn the Chargers into a dominant running team (there were probably better downhill run blockers in this draft for power/gap schemes, though we’ll have to see what the Bolts ultimately run), but he will improve the Chargers’ offensive line in that area. It will also help them protect their most valuable player, quarterback Justin Herbert, who has taken a few too many unnecessary hits in the past couple years.

I would have loved to see the Chargers take Malik Nabers here because wide receiver is the Chargers single biggest need and I think he’s an elite talent. Tackle, to me, was a situation where they were looking for an upgrade and not in dire straits. There are, however, a number of talented wide receivers that are still available following Round 1, and Joe Alt is probably the most complete offensive tackle in the draft class. All in, I like the pick and see the offensive philosophy underpinning it, but it hurts to pass on a guy like Nabers who would run wild with Herbert behind center.

Pick #6: New York Giants

With the sixth pick, the New York Giants select Malik Nabers, wide receiver from Louisiana State.

The Giants got my guy! Nabers was one of my Five Favorites in the draft overall.

This is a home run pick in my view, as the Giants offense has lacked a true #1 receiver for the last few years. Nabers’ speed and talent will give quarterback Daniel Jones an elite option who can slice through secondaries, catch deep balls (Jones has a very strong arm), and make house calls off easy completions like short slants. Adding Nabers will also let the other Giants’ receivers slot into their natural roles. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson operate much better in the short- to intermediate-part of the field, and Hyatt can operate as a field stretcher alongside Nabers.

There was a legitimate debate as to whether the Giants should have taken a quarterback here given Daniel Jones hasn’t firmly established himself as the long-term answer. They can’t expect to draft at #6 often and this is a talented (and pretty deep) class at quarterback. But they are committed to Daniel Jones in 2024 to the tune of $36 million guaranteed (though they can move on afterward if needed) and he’s still only 27 years old. If he can stay healthy, Jones has a chance of recovering the form he found a couple years ago when he led the Giants to a playoff win over Minnesota, especially with the addition of Nabers. And there’s no guarantee that the quarterbacks left in this draft will outperform Jones in the short or even medium term, so sticking and picking Nabers here is a pretty solid move in my view.

Pick #7: Tennessee Titans

With the seventh pick, the Tennessee Titans select JC Latham, offensive tackle from Alabama.

JC Latham is big and powerful. He’s 6’6” and 342 pounds, and he is the definition of a “people mover” in the run game. He played right tackle at Alabama and started 27 games, so he’s got a lot of experience against some of the best competition in college football, so it’s easy to assume his skills will translate well to the NFL, especially run blocking.

I suspect Tennessee would’ve taken Alt if he was available here. Alt is a natural left tackle, and that was the biggest hole on the Titans line last year (it’s also the most expensive position on the offensive line to fill, so you get a ton of value drafting a left tackle that is good). Latham has only really played right tackle, though Alabama reportedly moved offensive linemen around during practice to get them experience. The Titans could slot Latham in at right tackle immediately, but they’d have to find where to put Dillon Radunz, who is probably their most effective returning offensive lineman. They could also move Latham to the left side to protect quarterback Will Levis’ blindside—Latham is likely capable of making the switch even if he has to push through a slight learning curve.

I do have a few concerns with Latham’s pass protection, as he’s a little prone to holding (especially against quicker D-Linemen) and can sometimes make mental mistakes. It’s all stuff that is fixable, but Latham has had years of top-notch college coaching at Alabama under Saban—you have to wonder a little bit how quickly he will clean it up. With that said, there’s no doubt Latham has talent and offensive tackle is a clear need for the Titans. Hard to complain about the pick with Alt off the table.

Pick #8: Atlanta Falcons

With the eighth pick, the Atlanta Falcons select Michael Penix Jr., quarterback from Washington.

This is where things got wild.

WHAT?! The Falcons actually took a quarterback?

In case you don’t remember (it literally just happened a month ago), the Falcons signed quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency to a four year, $180 million contract with $100 million in guarantees. Let that sink in: $100 million in guarantees. When they signed that deal, it’s impossible to think that the Falcons expected to draft a quarterback in April—they effectively tied themselves to the 36-year-old Cousins through at least the 2025 season.

Apparently it was impossible for Cousins to think the Falcons would take a QB either, he was reportedly “a bit stunned” by the move. How can you blame him?

The Falcons signing Kirk Cousins with the money they did was a clear signal that they intend to compete now. They had obvious needs on the defensive line, both at edge and on the interior, and also could’ve benefited from adding a wide receiver or cornerback. No defensive players had been drafted to this point, so the Falcons could have had their choice between Byron Murphy, Laiatu Latu, Dallas Turner, or Quinyon Mitchell. Rome Odunze, a top 3 receiver in what’s been called an “all time” receiver class, was still on the board. They passed on all of them to take Penix.

I want to be clear here: Penix is a great player and a really good NFL prospect. He’s a great deep thrower, he’s got a live arm, he’s athletic, and he’s obviously a high-level competitor (he just led Washington to the National Title game). He has some injury history that’s a bit concerning, and he turns 24 in about two weeks. But this isn’t really about him.

By picking any quarterback, the Falcons basically undermined their entire offseason strategy. If they thought they would take a quarterback in the draft, they should never have handed Cousins the contract they did. If Cousins is good, they don’t need Penix. If Cousins is bad, they’ll never actually realize one of the biggest benefits of having a quarterback on a rookie deal—extra cap space—because they paid Cousins so much that his contract would eat it all up anyway. And that assumes that Penix can come in and play well if Kirk Cousins can’t. That’ll be hard to even determine given that either way, Cousins is going to get the nod at the starting job and Penix won’t have many chances to see live game action.

There is quite literally no way for the Falcons to find value at quarterback now for more than maybe a season or two (2026-27 by the way). Cousins will eat up $40 million in cap space in 2025, basically no matter what, and $25 million in dead cap for 2026 if the Falcons did decide to move on from him and let Penix take over the reins. They’re basically stuck in a world where the best they can do is a single from a value standpoint. That’s simply not a good use of resources.

The cost for this baffling move is a top 10 pick at a high value position of need (edge, DT, CB, or WR are all key positions that are hard to fill cheaply). Most teams hope that such a pick turns into Pro Bowl caliber player and expect at least a quality starter. That possibility is gone. The Falcons will also have to find another way to fill those positions either through the draft or with leaps from guys like Lorenzo Carter already on the roster.

If Penix becomes a high-end starter, there’s a way to make this pick look okay. But if the Falcons believe that has a good chance of happening (as they should if they drafted him at #8), it naturally raises the question of why they went after Cousins in free agency instead of lower cost, short-term bridge options at QB like the Raiders did with Gardner Minshew and the Patriots did with Jacoby Brissett. Penix wasn’t seen as a top 10 pick for most of the draft process, so presumably they could have known, or at least expected, there would be a path to drafting him even early in free agency. It’s hard to square the two decisions.

Pick #9: Chicago Bears

With the ninth pick, the Chicago Bears select Rome Odunze, wide receiver from Washington.

Chicago did the thing they didn’t do for Justin Fields, where they pair their young quarterback with a star receiver in the hopes it pops. That’s sensible, and a lot of teams have found success by making sure their young quarterback has weapons (Bengals drafting Ja’Marr Chase, Dolphins trading for Tyreek Hill, Bills getting Stefon Diggs). Rome Odunze is a stud and could absolutely become a high-caliber receiver in the league.

The only sort of funky thing is that Chicago already has star receivers. DJ Moore might be the most under-hyped receiver in the NFL, he is a dude. The Bears also just traded real draft capital (and committed real cap space at $23 million) to Keenan Allen, who was one of the most effective receivers in the NFL last season. Adding Odunze to the Bears’ wide receiver room gives them an embarrassment of riches at the position, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Bears could’ve used their second pick of the night on defense.

I love it. Odunze is going to be a stud at the NFL level—he’s big, fast, and an elite contested catch player. Odunze and Moore can man the boundary roles while Allen feasts out of the slot (where he’s at his best, particularly at this point in his career). Odunze will also have the opportunity to learn from two elite wide receivers with a ton of experience and benefit from their gravity in the short term. More importantly, Caleb Williams is going to have more than enough tools to hit the ground running. He’ll have guys who can beat 1 vs. 1 matchups at three different spots and guys who can operate effectively in different parts of the field. He might be able to challenge rookie passing records as a result.

The Bears will want to find a way to bolster their pass rush and add depth to their offensive line later in the draft, but they’ll have at least some chance to do so with picks in the third and fourth round.

Pick #10: Minnesota Vikings (from New York Jets)

With the tenth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select J.J. McCarthy, quarterback from Michigan.

The Vikings made the first trade of the night, but it was a bit later than expected. Rather than moving way up the board to get ahead of the Giants, the Vikes stayed patient and ultimately traded picks #11, #129 (4th round), and #157 (5th round) to the Jets for picks #10 and #203 (6th round). They still got their quarterback, J.J. McCarthy.

By waiting, the Vikings saved a ton of draft capital. The starting price to get a deal done with the Cardinals at #4 or Chargers at #5 probably would’ve been at least the Vikings’ two first rounders (#11 and #23). It’s hard to argue with getting that kind of bargain and still landing your guy. [Sure, it’s possible the Vikings could’ve paid up even more to get Drake Maye…but that seems both costly and unlikely given the Pats needed a QB.]

From a projection standpoint, McCarthy has all the tools you could want in a quarterback. He led Michigan to National Championship by playing efficient ball, making plays on third town, and avoiding negative plays. He’s also clearly got good physical tools, as he’s shown a strong arm, accuracy, and athleticism inside the pocket and breaking out when he needs to. The only real knocks are that McCarthy hasn’t had as many reps as other QBs in the draft and that Michigan’s roster was dominant overall, but those things aren’t actually negatives—they just point to some unknowns. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings offensive staff can figure out how to develop him, and he’ll have an elite weapon in Justin Jefferson on the outside to lean on too.

This was a masterful job of managing the board by Minnesota (who knows whether they had intel on what the Giants and Falcons would do) and holding on to as much draft capital as possible, even if it maybe got a little risky when Atlanta opted to take a quarterback.

Pick #11: New York Jets (from Minnesota Vikings)

With the eleventh pick, the New York Jets select Olu Fashanu, offensive tackle from Penn State.

The flip side of the first trade was the Jets getting pick #11. They moved back just one spot to pick up an extra fourth round pick and move up from the sixth round to the fifth. They presumably didn’t want a quarterback (long-term, that may be an issue), so that was a good piece of business.

They also made a prudent move by snagging offensive tackle prospect Olu Fashanu. Fashanu has elite physical traits, especially his movement skills, and it’s possible he could turn into the best tackle in the draft. While the Jets filled their tackle slots in free agency, they did so with short-term deals for Tyron Smith, who is 33 and has a lengthy injury history, and Morgan Moses, who’s also 33 and coming off surgery for a torn pec. Fashanu is the long term answer at tackle for the Jets, especially since former first round pick Mekhi Becton is no longer on the team. Fashanu needs to get stronger and still has plenty of development to do, but he should be a long-term player for the Jets.

I’ll admit I’m a bit surprised the Jets didn’t go for another weapon for Aaron Rodgers. Tight end Brock Bowers was still on the board and would’ve helped their receiving game. They’re going to have to rely on Mike Williams staying healthy (he’s coming of a torn ACL), star Garrett Wilson, and wizardry from Rodgers to keep the passing game going. They can do it, and that might be a better bet than relying on Smith and Moses to stay healthy all year. Ultimately, I see the Jets’ selection of Fashanu as the wiser move over the next 2-5 years, even if it’s unlikely to provide them as much of an immediate return this year.

Pick #12: Denver Broncos

With the twelfth pick, the Denver Broncos select Bo Nix, quarterback from Oregon.

In the words of one of my idols Tony Kornheiser, “I believe I had that.”

Bo Nix to the Broncos just made so much sense. Nix is a really good quarterback who routinely makes sound decisions quickly. He’s not a live arm like Michael Penix, but he’s got enough juice to make throws in the NFL. With Sean Payton at the helm, the Broncos will be able to roll out an offensive that accentuates Nix’s strengths and puts pressure on defenses if they can get enough out of their skill guys. I would like to see the Broncos get a little more help on the outside to aid Courtland Sutton (I hope the trade rumors quiet down for the sake of Broncos fans) and Marvin Mims.

Overall, I like this pick a lot. The NFL was high on this crop of quarterbacks—a record six QBs went in the first 12 picks—but the Broncos were able to find their guy without moving up the board, which is important given they’re already low on draft capital from the Russell Wilson trade. If Nix hits, it won’t matter that draft prognosticators had a late first or second round grade on him—the surplus value from getting a starting QB on a rookie contract is big enough to warrant slight overpays in draft value. The Broncos might not be able to take advantage of that surplus value given they’re still paying Russell Wilson, but that money is already spent, so I don’t think this pick can be reasonably docked for that.

Pick #13: Las Vegas Raiders

With the thirteenth pick, the Las Vegas Raiders select Brock Bowers, tight end from Georgia.

I really love Bowers as a player. He’s a stud with the ball in his hands and seemed to always make plays when Georgia needed them on the brightest stage. He’s got great balance and hands, and he’s got enough speed and feel to find ways to get open underneath all the time. While he’s more of a receiving threat than an elite blocker, Bowers also isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty as a blocker (there are some tight ends who basically “ole” when they block…I won’t name names). Ultimately, he’s going to be a good player for the Raiders from Day 1, which alone is a reason to like this pick.

I have a few small quibbles around the edges that really have nothing to do with Bowers as a player. The Raiders just used premium draft capital on tight end Michael Mayer last year, he was pick #35 in last year’s draft. While Mayer didn’t necessarily pop last season, he’s definitely got some talent and will need reps to unlock his potential. Adding Bowers to the mix also means the Raiders will probably want to roll out two tight ends relatively frequently. That would normally be fine, except it probably also means the Raiders use both their premier wide receivers, Davante Adams and Jacoby Myers, together with their tight ends less frequently than you’d want. It’s not a huge deal, but it’ll take some managing.

Picking Bowers also means the Raiders are committing serious draft assets and salary to one of the least valuable positions on the field in tight end. Bowers is set to make roughly $18 million over the four years of his rookie contract with a $3.3 million cap number for 2024 per Over the Cap. Mayer will make around $9.3 million and has a 2024 cap number of $2.1 million. That means the Raiders will have used early first and early second round picks and roughly $27 million on a lower value position. That’s kind of a lot.

I don’t want to overstate this. Taking Bowers at pick #13 is fine—unlike taking him in the top 5 picks, he doesn’t have to perform like a top 10 player at the position right away to return excess value. He’s also going to make their team better quickly. And the Raiders couldn’t have known they’d be taking Bowers at #13 this year when they drafted Mayer. It’s just a lot of assets to throw at tight end, and the Raiders had some needs elsewhere. With the six highest rated QB prospects off the board, though, I’m not sure any of the other needs were so high that they demanded a Day 1 pick.

Pick #14: New Orleans Saints Select

With the fourteenth pick, the New Orleans Saints select Taliese Fuaga, offensive tackle from Oregon State.

This will be short and sweet: I love Fuaga, and I love this pick. The Saints needed a tackle given the issues they’ve had with Trevor Penning’s development and injury concerns for starting right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk. I’m not sure they had a bigger need and tackle is a really valuable position to fill. That’s super important for a Saints team that has to find excess value in the draft given they don’t have a ton of cap space for the next 2-3 years. Fuaga is also a hoss and should be able to step in right away. And even if the Saints don’t need Fuaga to start at tackle, he can slot in at guard and be effective early. No question their offensive line improved substantially.

Pick #15: Indianapolis Colts

With the fifteenth pick, the Indianapolis Colts select Laiatu Latu, defensive end from UCLA.

This pick is really exciting. Latu is a fantastic football player that is ready to play in the league right away, even on a good defense. And while the Colts already roster a solid set of outside pass rushers in Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, and Dayo, Latu is more talented than all of them. You’re also never gonna go broke by drafting elite pass rushers. After quarterback, it’s the highest value position in the NFL, and having a rotation of good pass rushers has been a staple for a lot of successful teams in the past like the 2012 Super Bowl Champion Giants or the 2018 Super Bowl Champion Eagles.

Latu has some significant health questions, but to draft him this high, the Colts must have gotten comfortable with the risk. I have about as much medical knowledge as a rock, so I’ll assume they know what they’re doing. On the field, Latu doesn’t have many questions.

The Colts do pass on a cornerback here, which was a big position of need, and also a high value position. Some will question the decision to pass on their choice CB, but I think it boils down to defensive philosophy. You can absolutely build a defensive juggernaut by focusing on pass rushers, and that appears to be the Colts’ approach in terms of resource allocation. There are also decent corners still available for Round 2 and 3, so they can go back to that position later. Overall, I think this is a great pick.

Pick #16: Seattle Seahawks

With the sixteenth pick, the Seattle Seahawks select Byron Murphy II, defensive tackle from Texas.

The Seahawks got another one of my Five Favorites, so you can probably guess how I feel about this pick. I love it!

Seattle was a solid team last year, but they moved on from long-time head coach Pete Carroll in favor of hiring a modern defensive guru in Mike Macdonald. With a new head coach in town, it’s not a surprise Seattle would want to invest on that side of the ball. While the Seahawks have already invested quite a few resources into their defensive line, they’re their best interior pass rusher Jarran Reed is set to hit free agency after 2024. Murphy can add to the Seahawks interior pass rush right away and take over for Reed once he leaves. Defensive tackles who can create pressure are gaining traction as extremely high-value players in a league dominated by passing—just look at how much money Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins got this off-season.

The Seahawks could have picked an offensive lineman instead to shore up that side of the football. I’d picked Troy Fautanu for them in my mock draft the other day, and I still think that would have made sense too (don’t forget the low cost of moving). But I didn’t expect Murphy to still be on the board here, and he’s a big enough talent at a high-value position that I think he’s worth going for. Seattle will need to do something to shore up its offensive line next year, but they can go after positions like center and guard later in the draft.

Pick #17: Minnesota Vikings (from Jacksonville Jaguars)

With the seventeenth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Dallas Turner, defensive end from Alabama.

The Vikings trade up again! This time, to move up six spots, the Vikings traded pick #23 and #167 (5th round), plus future third- and fourth-round picks in 2025, to obtain pick #17 from the Jaguars. [The Vikings had previously traded up to #23 with the Texans in March.]. With the upgraded pick, the Vikings took talented edge rusher Dallas Turner, a physical freak who has all the talent in the world to become an elite NFL pass rusher.

The Vikings lost star defensive end Danielle Hunter in free agency this offseason. While they were able to bring back younger, talented edge rushers in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, they weren’t set at the position. Van Ginkel in particular has never played a full season at edge, and he’s only under contract through 2025. Because edge rusher is so important, it’s hard to argue with adding a talented prospect like Turner to the mix.

Turner has some work to do on refining his pass rush skills. He’s drawn comparisons to elite talents like Von Miller, which shows how incredible his physical ability is, but he will only reach those heights if he can develop more consistent pass rush moves. That said, talents like this at defensive end are rarely available in the middle- or late- first round unless there are huge question marks in terms of injury history, off the field issues, or other non-football issues, and Turner doesn’t seem to have those. It’s a big swing, but one that I think is worth taking for the Vikings.

Pick #18: Cincinnati Bengals Select

With the eighteenth pick, the Cincinnati Bengals select Amarius Mims, offensive tackle from Georgia.

I had the Bengals going offensive tackle in my mock draft, so with four already off the board, it makes sense that they went for talented prospect Amarius Mims. My pick for them, JC Latham, was already off the board. I love the fit with Mims here. He’s raw but toolsy, and the Bengals can bring him along slowly if they need to because they already have two solid tackle options on the roster in Orlando Brown Jr. and Trent Brown. But Brown in particular is not a long-term solution, so having the ability to replace him full-time with Mims after the 2024 season is nice. I also like the Mims fit over other quality offensive line options like Troy Fautanu for the Bengals. Mims probably has a higher ceiling than Fautanu, and he’s a more natural fit at right tackle; Mims played on the right side in college, while Fautanu played left tackle. If the Bengals needed to slot someone in immediately Fautanu may have been a better bet, but given their circumstances, I think they went the right direction.

The Bengals also have potential needs at wide receiver and edge with two of their best players at those positions (Tee Higgins at WR and Trey Hendrickson at edge) reportedly seeking trades. But those needs aren’t really immediate, as both Higgins and Hendrickson are under contract for at least another year, and the Bengals may be able to re-build those relationships over the course of the next season. Even if they can’t, the Bengals will have other opportunities to address those positions if they need to.

Pick #19: Los Angeles Rams

With the nineteenth pick, the Los Angeles Rams select Jared Verse, defensive end from Florida State.

I’m a bit bummed that the Rams didn’t end up with Latu (who I mocked to the Rams), but sometimes great players go earlier than you expect. Verse is a high-quality alternative, though, and fills the same positional need for LA. Verse can rush the passer and probably plays the run better than Latu, and he will immediately boost the Rams’ defensive line talent. Verse has produced everywhere he has been, and he brings high-level disruption and toughness too.

A lot of folks think there’s a bit of a drop-off after Verse in terms of production at edge rusher for this class. I’m not 100% sure that’s true, but I also don’t think it really matters. Pass rush is something the Rams need to keep building after the loss of Aaron Donald, and Verse does it as well as anyone left in the draft. I don’t think he has the upside of Turner or the refined skills of Latu, but he’s got plenty of ways to be successful at the NFL level and I suspect the Rams will get the most out of him that they can.

Pick #20: Pittsburgh Steelers

With the twentieth pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Troy Fautanu, offensive tackle from Washington.

Fautanu is an AWESOME get for the Steelers. He’s plug-and-play at left tackle for them, which will let 2023 first round pick Broderick Jones stick on the right side while he continues to develop. Between the two young players, the Steelers have solidified their bookends on the offensive line. You’ve also got to feel good about the left side of the Steelers offensive line, with Fautanu slotting in next to left guard Isaac Seumalo.

I have no notes for this pick, it’s a great fit. The Steelers will need to find a way to address cornerback later in the draft, and I’d like to see them add a wide receiver and pass rushing depth too. But they filled the bigger need at a position of extreme importance with a really good player in Fautanu.

Pick #21: Miami Dolphins

With the twenty-first pick, the Miami Dolphins select Chop Robinson, edge rusher from Penn State.

This was a super interesting pick. The Dolphins lost both of their star edge rushers to serious injuries last year when Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles and Bradley Chubb tore his ACL. While both are expected to play during the 2024 season, you can’t assume they will be back on time or at 100%. The Dolphins also lost their best defensive lineman, Christian Wilkins, to the Raiders in free agency and their best back-up pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel to the Vikings. So, they’re looking at a tough situation along the defensive line.

Chop Robinson was a combine stand-out after he posted absurd testing numbers, but his lack of stand-out production in college suggests the Dolphins are baking in some projection based on his physical profile. Robinson generated a fair amount of pressure but didn’t get home as often as you’d like to see, and his tape shows he needs to improve his pass rush tool kit. With Latu, Turner, and Verse already off the board though, it’s not clear the Dolphins had better options along the defensive line. They’ll need him to come along quickly if Phillips and Chubb aren’t back to 100% early in the season, but that might be a tough ask.

The Dolphins passed up on O-Line to focus on the D-Line. I’m a bit surprised by that, but there is some logic to it. On the one hand, the Dolphins offensive line struggled after Robert Hunt and Connor Williams got hurt last year, and left tackle Terran Armstead has battled injuries for years. Hunt and Williams aren’t with the team anymore and Armstead is a year older. Shoring up the O-Line would’ve been nice to do, especially given how important it’s been to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa upright and healthy. On the other hand, the Dolphins whole offense is predicated upon getting the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly and stressing defenses laterally and vertically with speed at their skill positions. When that’s clicking, offensive line is a little less important for them than it may be for other teams.

Ultimately both OL and DL were big needs for the Dolphins, so I don’t want to fault them for going with Robinson. I probably would’ve leaned toward the offensive side of the trench, but it really comes down to what they think their odds are of landing an impact player at O-Line or D-Line in subsequent rounds of the draft.

Pick #22: Philadelphia Eagles

With the twenty-second pick, the Philadelphia Eagles select Quinyon Mitchell, cornerback from Toledo.

Howie Roseman seems to always get a steal, hats off! Mitchell is the best cornerback in this class (and one of my Five Favorites) and he’s going to be a stud in Philadelphia right away.

I’m stunned that Philly was able to sit at pick #22 and snag Mitchell. That’s amazing value, and they filled perhaps their biggest need with a great player at a key position. There’s nothing much else to say, this pick is a 10 of 10.

Pick #23: Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota Vikings)

With the twenty-third pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Brian Thomas Jr., wide receiver from Louisiana State.

Jacksonville traded back with Minnesota to land this pick. For their trouble, they added a solid amount of additional draft capital in the #167 pick this year and future third- and fourth-round picks next year. That’s pretty good business, so I have to applaud them for making the move.

They land a really talented prospect in wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who has a rare combination of size and speed for the position. Long term, his physical tools could make him the best receiver in this class (though I’d still bet on his teammate from LSU Malik Nabers). Adding a wide receiver with Thomas Jr.’s vertical receiving game chops is also really important for the Jags. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence needs weapons to hit his hoped-for ceiling and the Jags lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley to free agency. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram will give Lawrence plenty of options in the short and intermediate passing game, and Thomas can be the true vertical threat. I think he’s probably going to be better than Ridley was last year, so the Jags should be able to get better and cheaper at the position, a nice combination.

The only real downside of moving back is that the Jaguars don’t pick up cornerback or pass rushing help in the first round. With the way the board fell, adding a pass rusher probably didn’t make sense. But Terrion Arnold and Nate Wiggins were both still available and would’ve been nice options.

But adding key weapons for your franchise quarterback is rarely a bad thing. You can’t be mad at the decision to take Thomas Jr. over Arnold/Wiggins here.

Pick #24: Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys)

With the twenty-fourth pick, the Detroit Lions select Terrion Arnold, cornerback from Alabama.

The Lions trade up with the Dallas Cowboys, sending picks #29 and #73 (3rd round) to Dallas in exchange for pick #24 and a future seventh rounder. Doing so allowed the Lions to snag Arnold, a top cornerback prospect, before teams like Tampa Bay or Arizona might have taken him.

Detroit came into this draft primarily needing to strengthen its defense. Last season, they gave up 5.5 yards per play (6th worst in the NFL). Most of the damage against Detroit came through the air, so finding a way to add talent to the pass defense in particular was key coming in. Personally, I favor doing so by adding pass rushers—it’s a more valuable position in terms of free agency dollars and you can’t just throw away from good pass rushers like you can with corners. But with the board as it fell, there weren’t elite pass rushing prospects available at value in the draft at this point of the first round. And Arnold had fallen a bit lower than expectations, so I can see why Detroit felt compelled to pounce.

Arnold is a tough, physical corner who will bring aggression and attitude to the Detroit secondary. He fits a need, and he’ll get on the field early and provide immediate value. From that perspective, this pick is a clear win. Detroit did give up a hefty amount to get him by shelling out its third round pick this year, but they have few enough needs right now that I don’t mind the slight overpay to move up.

Pick #25: Green Bay Packers

With the twenty-fifth pick, the Green Bay Packers select Jordan Morgan, offensive tackle from Arizona.

Green Bay has a ton of young talent on its roster and has already filled most of its key positions, so trying to figure out the direction they would go in the draft was tougher than for most other teams. They settled on the athletic offensive lineman Jordan Morgan, who has the ability to play guard or tackle at the NFL level (some analysts peg him as more of a guard due to shorter arm length, but he held up fine in college and should at least get a look at tackle). That versatility will be valuable in helping the Packers find the best combination of five O-Linemen on their roster to compete next season. The Packers could’ve gotten that same kind of versatility from the player drafted immediately afterward, Graham Barton, but it’s fair for them to prefer Morgan’s movement skills and dexterity.

Cooper DeJean was still available here and a lot of folks (me included) had the Packers taking him. But if the Packers see DeJean as more of a safety than a corner though, as many teams reportedly do, it’s hard to argue with preferring a potential offensive tackle from a positional value standpoint.

Pick #26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With the twenty-sixth pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Graham Barton, offensive tackle from Duke.

This is a really solid piece of drafting by the Bucs. They have needs all along their interior offensive line and Barton has the positional flexibility to play either guard position or center (he also played tackle in college, but the Bucs are more set at that position with Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedecke in place). Plug Barton in for the biggest hole and go, it’s as simple as that.

The Buccaneers also could have used pass rush and corner help, but given how the draft board fell, this looks like a really solid outcome for them.

Pick #27: Arizona Cardinals

With the twenty-seventh pick, the Arizona Cardinals select Darius Robinson, defensive end from Missouri.

After snagging Marvin Harrison Jr. with pick #4, Arizona had two really big areas of need: defensive line and cornerback. They opted to go defensive line, taking defensive end Darius Robinson.

Robinson is a fantastic all-around player who straight up bodies people along the offensive line. Watch some tape from his college days—he is an ox that doubles as a school-yard bully on every play. It’s wild and fun to watch.

At 6’5” and 295+ pounds, Robinson doesn’t have the speed to really press the edge like some the edge rushers taken before him. He wins more with power, so he’s probably most valuable from a 5-tech alignment and down. That suits Arizona nicely as they run a base 3-4 scheme. Having a big body like Robinson who can also get after the quarterback is super valuable for them, and he’s versatile enough to stick on the field when they go to 2- or 4-down looks too.

This is a really solid pick that fits a high-value need. I would’ve liked to see them take Wiggins too, but I can’t fault the choice here.

Pick #28: Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo Bills)

With the twenty-eighth pick, the Kansas City Chiefs select Xavier Worthy, wide receiver from Texas.

I’ll be honest, this shocked me. The Bills traded back with the Chiefs—a team that has dominated them in the playoffs—when both teams are presumably targeting the same position: wide receiver. The trade details: Chiefs get pick #28, #133 (4th round), and #248 (7th round) and the Bills get pick #32, #95 (3rd round), and #221 (7th round).

In essence, the Bills gave the Chiefs the right to pick their remaining wide receiver of choice in exchange for moving up one of their picks about a round and a largely irrelevant 27 pick move up in the 7th round. That seems…risky? Crazy?

The Bills wide receiver corps rivals the Chargers for least proven in the NFL. Why are they moving back when they have their pick of the litter? They must like somebody later in the draft, but unless you know that player is going to be around, this is a crazy gamble. And to make that sort of gamble with one of your biggest playoff rivals is WIIIIILD! If Worthy hits for the Chiefs (who just won the Super Bowl with issues at wide receiver, by the way), the Bills will probably regret this. As a Chargers fan, I already regret it.

Let’s get to this from the Chiefs perspective. They needed a wide receiver, especially with looming criminal charges and a potential suspension for Rashee Rice, and they got the fastest dude in the draft—maybe in the history of the NFL. I am not a huge fan of small, speedy receivers in Worthy’s mold (nothing really against him personally), but I am terrified of how Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will take advantage of his skills. We all remember Tyreek Hill on that team, and they’re substantially better now. Combined with Marquise Brown, the Chiefs are going to have some serious speed on the outside. I don’t know how defenses are going to handle those two and TRAVIS KELCE in the middle…it’s going to be really, really annoying for everyone outside Missouri (or Kansas? Whatever, I don’t even care anymore).

Pick #29: Dallas Cowboys (from Detroit Lions)

With the twenty-ninth pick, the Dallas Cowboys select Tyler Guyton, offensive tackle from Oklahoma.

Dallas moved back to #29 and snagged an extra third rounder in the process. They still landed Tyler Guyton, the offensive tackle that I mocked to them at pick #24. Clap, clap, clap—that’s just good business. Kudos to Jerry Jones and the crew for great work in the first round.

I already talked about why Guyton makes sense for the Cowboys in my mock draft, so I won’t belabor the point. This is really solid work for Dallas.

Pick #30: Baltimore Ravens

With the thirtieth pick, the Baltimore Ravens select Nate Wiggins, cornerback from Clemson.

The Ravens have to be ecstatic that Wiggins was still around by pick #30. Cornerback is a clear need for them, and they managed to snag one of the best prospects in the draft at the position. While Wiggins needs to add strength and put on some weight, nobody questions his talent or want-to (or his speed, which is elite). The guy is a really good cover corner and a high-effort player. He’s going to thrive in Baltimore.

Excellent pick.

Pick #31: San Francisco 49ers

With the thirty-first pick, the San Francisco 49ers select Ricky Pearsall, wide receiver from Florida.

Now this is interesting.

Pearsall is a quality receiver who projects best as a slot player. He’s quick, shifty, and has a knack for finding space. And as you can see from the clip below, he can make some absurd catches:

Pearsall makes a lot of sense for the Niners. Brandon Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal and it’s not clear whether he’ll be back with the Niners long-term. Deebo Samuel is also expensive and will turn 29 during next season. We’re starting to hear rumors that one of them might be moved soon.

There’s also the question of Christian McCaffrey. Right now, CMC is a virtually unparalleled player out of the backfield that can fill a lot of the functions of a typical slot receiver. But he’s getting older and has missed time in the past due to injury. Adding Pearsall gives the Niners a more traditional slot option, which offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan could put to good use either alongside CMC or in the event that he’s out for a period of games.

Pearsall gives the Niners options. While they might have liked to add a tackle or corner, the way the draft shook out, there weren’t obvious first round locks that dropped to them. They obviously know more about their plans for Samuel and Aiyuk than we do as observers, but I presume the possibility of a trade involving one of them makes the Pearsall pick valuable insurance. We’ll have to see what happens before making any concrete conclusions.

Pearsall wasn’t my personal favorite of the wide receivers available at this point in the draft, but he probably fills the slot role as well or better than anyone else, and there’s no question he’s a good player. He’s also faster than a lot of people think, which will be useful for the Niners.

I’d still like to see the Niners find a corner or offensive tackle with their second rounder, and I think options will be available to them at one of those positions.

Pick #32: Carolina Panthers (from Buffalo Bills via Kansas City Chiefs)

With the thirty-second pick, the Carolina Panthers select Xavier Legette, wide receiver from South Carolina.

Another trade for Buffalo and, again, it’s a little perplexing. The Bills traded pick #32 and #200 (6th round) to the Panthers in exchange for pick #33 (2nd round) and #141 (5th round).

The Bills had to know the Panthers were likely to take a wide receiver (the Bills top need), otherwise why would they pay to move up just one slot? So, in effect, the Bills gave away their option to pick the receiver they liked (again), but this time in exchange for even less draft capital—59 draft spots towards the back of the draft.

If the Bills got some assurance from the Panthers about who they would pick, they might have felt comfortable switching slots for that kind of return. I find it hard to believe the Panthers would give that info up (or that the Bills could trust it was 100% reliable), but you never know. We’ll see what they end up doing at #33.

For the Panthers, they get their choice of the remaining wide receivers and take Legette. He’s a physical specimen and has really amazing speed when he gets in space. Without a first round pick heading into Thursday night, the Panthers realistically weren’t candidates for the top 3 or 4 receivers in the draft, but they should be happy to land Legette regardless. He’ll add speed to their offense and a different element than newly acquired Diontae Johnson.

I might have preferred Adonai Mitchell for them given his longer history of production and proven ability to score touchdowns, but Legette plays with far more consistency from down-to-down. I also like Troy Franklin, but his deep ball tracking skills probably pair best with quarterbacks that tend to throw deep more often. Wide receiver was the position of need for the Panthers heading in and they filled it with a good player—you’ve got to like that.

Wrap Up

That’s it for now! Let me know if you have thoughts in the comments or via email, I love to chat about this stuff.

I’ll probably do some sort of write up to cover the whole draft, but this was a ton of work on a short turnaround so I’m going to skip write ups after each day.

Thanks!