Mitigating the Loss of Monk and Huerter
With only 7 games left for the Kings, we’re coming up on the home stretch of the NBA season. The last couple weeks have featured some injury tough breaks for the Kings. After getting injured in a game against the Memphis Grizzlies, news broke last Friday that starting shooting guard Kevin Huerter will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. Just a few hours later, the anchor of Sacramento’s bench unit and leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year Malik Monk limped off the court after Luka Doncic awkwardly fell into him. Reports are that Monk will miss 4-6 weeks, meaning the earliest that he could feasibly come back is part-way through the first round of the NBA playoffs.
Spring injuries in the NBA are bad for any team, but they’re particularly consequential for a Kings team that is fighting for a top-6 seed—a task made more difficult by losing twice to the Dallas Mavericks last week (losing Monk early in last Friday’s game was a key reason the Kings lost).
The Monk and Huerter injuries leave the Kings without two critical rotation pieces—Huerter and Monk are 5th and 6th on the team in minutes per game—and with significant questions at guard.
Prior to getting hurt, Monk was in the midst of his best NBA season. According to Basketball Reference, Monk averaged 15.4 points, 5.1 assists, and 2.9 rebounds over 26.0 minutes per game, while posting respectable shooting numbers (44.3% from the field, 35.0% from three, 82.9% from the line). Despite slightly-below-average three point shooting, Monk’s 11.0 three point attempts per 100 possessions made him a critical space generator for the Kings. Monk had also become the team’s de facto backup point guard by developing a more robust passing game and building a strong pick and roll rapport with Kings centers Domantas Sabonis and Alex Len to go along with his penchant for scoring. In fact, amongst players with 100+ minutes played, Monk was second on the team in points per 100 possessions (28.8) and assists per 100 possessions (9.6). While Monk can get a little loose with the ball (2.1 turnovers per game), his ability to serve as a primary ball handler has given the Kings needed offensive versatility, and it has kept Monk on the court in late-game situations, where he ranks second on the team in fourth quarter scoring (behind Fox) and leads the team in clutch net rating per NBA.com.
Huerter has also been an important offensive weapon for the Kings, even though he’s had a down year compared to last season. Before being sidelined, Huerter averaged 10.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in just under per game, with his most important contributions coming as a floor spacer. Among the Kings rotation players, Huerter ranked third in three point attempts per 100 possessions (10.6), just behind Monk and Sasha Vezenkov. While his percentage slipped to just 36.2% from three this year, teams still were wary of Huerter’s three point shooting. Huerter, Monk, and Keegan Murray were also the perimeter players most likely to run dribble handoffs (DHOs) with Sabonis, which has become a staple of the Kings offense over the last two years.
Losing Monk and Huerter at the same time has pretty huge implications for the Kings. If the Kings tried to simply replace Monk’s and Huerter’s contributions, the task would be daunting: they would have to replace over 25 points per game and about 50 minutes played per game, find a way to fill the backup point guard role, find a way to manufacture over 21 threes per 100 possessions, and figure out who will be on the floor in crunch time alongside the regular crew of Fox, Sabonis, Murray, and Harrison Barnes.
That’s basically impossible given the Kings current roster.
But hope isn’t totally lost despite that! Rather than trying to re-create the same kind production that Monk and Huerter provided, the Kings have had to shift their identity. They can’t score as prolifically without Monk and Huerter, so instead they’ve had to lean into a new identity centered around perimeter defense and transition buckets.
So far, the results are encouraging. We’re seeing better defense overall, which has made up for some of the offensive drop-off. Similarly, the Kings’ defensive improvement—particularly with respect to generating turnovers and better shot contests—has allowed them to get out in transition, a good way to mitigate some of the impact from losing Monk and Huerter on the offense. If the Kings can improve their defense on ball screens, they may have a chance to weather losing two of their best guards late in the season.
Dialing Up the Perimeter Defense
Since Kevin Huerter got hurt on March 18, the Kings have dialed up their defensive intensity on the perimeter. During that stretch, the Kings have posted a defensive rating of 110.1 (9th in the NBA), compared to their season-long defensive rating of 115.0 (17th), per NBA.com.
A huge part of that defensive jump comes from swapping Keon Ellis in for Huerter as a starter. Ellis shines on defense. According to Dunks and Threes, Ellis’s Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (DEPM) of 1.9 ranks in the 93rd percentile across the entire NBA—and tops on the Kings. Compare that to Huerter, whose DEPM was just -1.2 (27th percentile league wide).
With Ellis playing alongside Fox and Murray, the Kings have been able to play above-average defenders at every perimeter position (Fox’s DEPM is 1.3, in the 86th percentile while Murray’s DEPM is 1.4, in the 87th percentile).
Monk’s injury has also led the Kings to play backup point guard Davion Mitchell more over the last few games. Mitchell’s defense hasn’t been as impressive in terms of DEPM this season (his -1.3 DEPM ranks in the 23rd percentile), but historically he has been a strong defensive contributor—especially in terms of on-ball defense. Over the last two seasons, Mitchell has posted DEPMs in the 66th and 76th percentile respectively.
These line-up changes have helped the Kings tremendously in generating turnovers, and it’s helped to cover up the long-time issues with the Kings defense and lack of paint protection. Per NBA.com, over the last eight games, the Kings are generating 8.9 steals per game (4th in the NBA), compared to just 7.6 steals per game for the season (14th in the NBA).
It’s also just helped the Kings be more disruptive in general, as their increased athleticism on the perimeter and confidence that guys will make the right rotations and reads allows players to bend the basic defensive rules, making offensive players hesitate.
You see it watching the Kings play. Watch this play from the Kings-Clippers game on Tuesday.
Murray plays strong on-ball defense on Paul George, but George is confident that he can still get off a reasonable fadeaway from the paint. But Fox bites down hard and gets a hand on the ball from behind. While this sequence depends on great heads up defense by Murray and an awareness by Fox, it’s also made possible by Keon Ellis’ being in the right position. Ellis is in the passing lane between George and Norman Powell, cutting off the easy outlet for a three. He’s also looking directly at James Harden, and will be able to rotate to Harden if Fox cannot recover in time to contest a kick-out to him. That’s high-level defense from all three players, and not something that occurs as often when Huerter or Monk are in the game.
Here’s another play from the same game.
Strong on-ball defense from Ellis, Lyles, and Vezenkov (!) leads to a couple errant passes, but the real gem here is what happens at the end of the play. With only about 4 seconds left on the shot clock, Westbrook has to try to create something off the dribble. Ellis forces Russell Westbrook into the middle of the paint, which allows Fox to step into the key and block off an easy outlet pass to James Harden. Westbrook’s only good options are an outlet to Brandon Boston (a 30% three point shooter) or to shoot a contested floater, which Alex Len summarily rejects. Obviously the highlight here is Len, but the play is made possible by Ellis and Fox correctly playing their responsibilities and having the athleticism to discourage Westbrook from kicking the ball out for a three.
The Kings are also handling defensive rotations and switches much more effectively with Fox, Murray, Ellis, and Mitchell on the floor more often. Swapping Ellis and Mitchell for Monk and Huerter has made this more feasible, as they both have stronger defensive instincts and the athleticism and quickness to make ball-handlers hesitate and still recover to their defensive responsibility.
Two examples:
Here, Mitchell is able to help Fox to stop Paul George from driving and force a kick-out to Westbrook (a subpar shooter). Mitchell recovers quickly enough to prevent Westbrook from driving, instead forcing a pass down to Brandon Boston. Murray gets his hand up and prevents a clean pass, which disrupts any opportunity for Boston to launch a corner three and lets the Kings reset defensively.
But what happens next is just as important. Boston sets an on-ball screen for Westbrook, but Murray and Mitchell switch it effortlessly. There’s nowhere for Westbrook to attack, and Mitchell carries Boston out to the three point line to prevent a quick swing. Seeing this, Westbrook opts to go at Murray, who uses his length to prevent an easy drive and force Westbrook into a contested long two. That’s savvy play for everyone involved! Sabonis also shows in the lane to discourage Westbrook from driving too quickly at Murray, and Fox is hedged inside while staying close(ish) to Paul George to prevent a kick-out three (although ideally you would like to see Fox to get just a bit higher with Boston there to potentially screen for George).
This clip is from the Dallas game last Friday. You can see that Ellis and Barnes expertly switch a double-screen set for Kyrie Irving, and Ellis even gets his hands on the pass back to Tim Hardaway Jr. Mitchell and Len actually switch off on Dante Exum and Derek Lively, which is fine given Lively’s position so far away from the basket. That switch also allows Mitchell to step up and cut off a potential drive by Hardaway Jr. Eventually, Kyrie Irving is forced to take a pull up two—and even though Irving absolutely can make that shot, that is a good defensive possession.
The Kings sort of spoil the strong sequence by allowing a long offensive rebound. Whatever, it happens sometimes. But Mitchell recovers well and runs Hardaway Jr. off of an open three and into a weak drive attempt that gets cut off. Hardaway backs off and outlets to Irving, but Mitchell and Barnes keep the pressure on Irving, forcing a dump off to Lively who actually makes a solid read to find PJ Washington in the corner for three. Fox, however, makes a good effort to contest the shot, which misses.
That’s 27 seconds of good defense! Sure, the Mavs got a couple contested looks, but you can live with that. What stands out is the timely switches and effective rotations. Guys are in the right place and making the right defensive reads. That’s not something that can always be said for the Kings, and a noticeable improvement.
Defense Leads To Transition Points
Obviously it’s better to play good defense than bad defense (duh). But an added benefit is that strong defense—especially steals—helps the Kings get into their transition game much, much more easily. The Kings get into transition at the fifth highest rate in the league per NBA.com’s tracking data. Without Monk and Huerter to bolster the half-court offense, the Kings need to find easy buckets in transition whenever they can.
Strong perimeter has lead the Kings to a number of high-quality opportunities in recent weeks.
Kessler Edwards and Davion Mitchell do a great job passing off a guard-guard screen from Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic, and when Luka drives, Edwards does a really nice job of aggressively digging at the ball and forcing a turnover that leads to a fast break layup.
Fox and Ellis pair up here to force Kyrie Irving into a bad dribble. Fox plays solid head-up defense, and Ellis biting down off of Dante Exum causes Irving to hesitate. Fox takes advantage by stripping Irving and getting into transition, leading to free throws.
You even see the Kings getting into transition off shot contests more than they have in the past. Here’s my two favorite from recent games:
In both cases, good shot contests lead to blocks, and the Kings are able to get into transition and get open threes for Keegan Murray. That’s strong defense leading to high-quality offense, and it doesn’t depend on having a second shot creator in Monk or a good shooter like Huerter on the floor to make it happen.
Ball Screens Are Still a Problem
Though the Kings have improved their perimeter defense and rotations, they’re still struggling a bit with how to address on-ball screens. Having Ellis, Murray, Fox, and Mitchell in the line-up more often gives them some flexibility and recovery speed, but they still need to find a way to address screens more consistently.
No matter how you look at it, this is a busted defense:
Derek Lively sets a ghost screen for Irving and Sabonis gets caught in no-man’s land. Sabonis doesn’t drop with the screener and doesn’t double hard either—it looks like he’s trying to hedge the screen, but he’s roughly 40 feet away from the basket. The result is that Irving has an easy pass into Lively about 8 feet from the basket. It’s fine to force the ball into Lively’s hands and make him a decision-maker, but this is just way too easy. Lively makes an easy read and hits Tim Hardaway Jr. for an open three.
The Kings also struggled to find the right balance when he laid off the screen. In this next clip, you see the screen gets set in the backcourt. Sabonis drops way back to prevent Doncic from getting downhill too deep, and Murray recovers too slowly back to his man. They don’t communicate well, which results in Sabonis going for a steal and letting Doncic out of the double-team with an easy pass to Dante Exum.
A similar problem happened with Fox and Sabonis just a couple minutes later, though luckily the Kings got out of it.
When Sabonis did try to double off of the screen, he often did so too slowly. Again, this let Doncic (and Irving) off the hook—they made relatively casual passes to open teammates and forced the Kings into an extremely difficult rotation. In the clip below, Keon Ellis has to recover to the corner for the contest through a backside screen by Daniel Gafford. That’s never going to work, and it leads to a wide open three.
Dante Exum’s game winner from Friday night also came off a similar action. Again, Sabonis doesn’t double hard enough, making it far too easy for Doncic to get out of the potential trap. The result is an easy three for Exum.
Obviously that was heartbreaking for the Kings and their fans. And defending Doncic and Irving while they get on-ball screens is hard for any team to defend. But the Kings have to do better.
Get Out of No-Man’s Land
The first thing they can fix is avoiding no-man’s land. The screen defender (most often Sabonis, Barnes, or Len) has to avoid getting caught between a double-team/hedge and drop coverage. If they are not doubling/hedging, but also not dropping to defend the screener as he rolls, they are effectively guarding air. That can’t happen.
Even if you pick up the guard, by the time he’s going downhill, the big is going to get burned. Plays like this have no real place in a good defense.
If You’re Going to Double, Be Quick
The second thing the Kings can clean up is doubling quickly and with intensity. Lackadaisical double-teams are easy for players like Doncic and Irving to get out of—they’ve seen doubles off of screens thousands of times, and if they’re not pressured with intensity, they’re going to pick it apart.
These are good pressures that happen quickly, and they make it much more difficult to pass out:
If you can’t be that quick, get big! Alex Len does a good job of this to make up for his lack of foot speed. Sure, these aren’t ideal—but at least he’s in the way:
There’s obviously significant risk in doubling during an on-ball screen. That’s a strategic decision that the coaching staff will make based on game, circumstance, and personnel. But doing it quickly—or at least being a nuisance—is key to making double teams work (at least sometimes) against elite players like Doncic.
Don’t Fear Drop Coverage
Drop coverage on a screen with players like Doncic and Irving is also risky. You may give them an open look or let them generate speed and get downhill toward the basket, which often results in layups or fouls. But it’s important to mix so that the offense doesn’t see the same look every time.
The Kings used drop coverage a lot against the Jazz in Sunday’s game, relying on their perimeter defenders to fight through screens without giving up too much of an advantage.
In this first clip, Fox simply slips under the screen and Sabonis drops back to the paint. With Walker Kessler (a non-shooter) as the screener, this is a pretty viable strategy—Kessler isn’t going to make anyone pay for leaving him open at the top of the key.
Fox also accomplishes pretty much the same thing by going over the screen a little later:
Obviously, this kind of defensive strategy is tougher when the ball-handler is better or the screener is a more capable shooter. But it can still work in doses. In this last clip, Keegan Murray does a good job fighting through the screen to at least discourage an immediate shot from Doncic:
The Kings will need to figure out the right mix of coverages for on-ball screens, but it’s critical that they get more effective executing their coverages regardless. With more athletes on the perimeter who are better at fighting through screens (with due respect to Monk and Huerter as players, they too often died on screens), they have a decent chance to do so.
That’s It!
I’ll be back with more Kings coverage as we head into the home stretch of the season. Here’s to hoping they can keep up the good defense and continue to improve on screens!