The Biggest Questions Facing the Chargers Before the 2024 Opener

Football season is finally back, and I am so excited for the opening week. This year, we’re getting two early games in Ravens versus Chiefs on Thursday and Packers versus Eagles on Friday, both of which should be great match ups. But as a Chargers fan, you know I’m most excited for the Bolts to open their season against the Raiders this Sunday at 1:05 pm—you’ve got to love a rivalry game to get the season going!

Some of my favorite football pundits haven’t been high on the Chargers much this offseason and Las Vegas prognosticators seem to have them as a mid-tier team, with sites like BetMGM pegging the team’s win total at 8.5 (albeit with a pedestrian payout if they hit the over of just -160). Having gone 5-12 last season, it’s hard to get too up in arms about the lack of hype. But with Jim Harbaugh at the helm, Justin Herbert leading the offense, and some talented defensive players hopefully returning to form, the Chargers should be a fun team to watch, and hopefully one that can contend for a wild card berth.

In this post, I’m raising the key questions for the Chargers heading into the season, and I’ll predict how I think things will shake out.

Will Anyone Besides Herbert Threaten Offensively?

Justin Herbert is a monster. If you haven’t figured that out yet, you haven’t watched enough football, so here are two options to begin your education (or just enjoy crazy plays)—8 minutes of crazy throws or an hour of highlights, have at it.

But the Chargers lost some serious offensive talent this offseason, and they’re going to have to find a way to replace it. Most notably, the Bolts traded Pro Bowl wide receiver Keenan Allen to the Bears; cut starting wide receiver Mike Williams; let starting running back Austin Ekeler and starting tight end Gerald Everett walk in free agency; and lost former All-Pro center Corey Linsley to retirement. Losing some of those guys won’t change much from last year, as Williams and Linsley each played just three games last season before injuries. Moving on from Ekeler and Everett also isn’t a huge concern given Ekeler struggled with efficiency and took a step backward as both a rusher and a receiver and Everett never really blossomed into a plus-player in Los Angeles.

But losing Keenan Allen is a gut punch. Allen was only guy on the offense who really threatened defenses last year. He was also the Chargers’ primary chain mover and Herbert’s favorite target by far. Allen was targeted on over 31% of the Chargers’ passing attempts during the 13 games he played (averaging over 11.5 targets per game), and despite missing 4 games at the end of the season, he was responsible for almost 29% of the Chargers total receiving yards. That’s a lot of production to lose, despite Allen turning 32 this offseason.

While Allen is by far the most meaningful piece to depart this offseason, the Chargers need to replace over 70% of both their rushing and receiving production from last year (in terms of yards). They also are replacing players who scored 28 of their 35 offensive touch downs last season (excluding passing TDs).

Who’s going to step up?

The Bolts are returning four wide receivers in Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, Derius Davis, and Simi Fehoko, but none of them are sure things. Palmer, a third-round pick in 2021, has filled in as the Chargers third WR behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams the past two seasons. He’s a quality receiver, but he’s never shouldered a huge load offensively for more than a game or two at a time. He will have to step up and play like a consistent starter—I’m optimistic he can do so. Johnston is a wild card. Though he was taken #21 overall in last year’s draft, he struggled mightily to catch the ball and create separation. His most painful highlight from last year cost the Chargers a win against the Packers (there were other drops that were almost as bad) and he was dead last in separation score. Simply put, he needs to be better. Davis and Fehoko aren’t likely to make huge contributions in terms of receiving numbers, as Davis is a return specialist/special package player and Fehoko has mostly been a practice squad player. At running back and tight end, there’s been a huge degree of turnover. Only tight end Stone Smartt is back on the active roster this year, and he’s mostly been a backup.

With so few guys returning, the Chargers have instead looked to new roster additions to fill in their skill position needs on offense. They drafted wide receiver Ladd McConkey in the second round, running back Kimani Vidal in the sixth round, and wide receiver Brenden Rice in the seventh round. They signed free agent running backs Gus Edwards, JK Dobbins, and Hassan Haskins; free agent wide receiver DJ Chark; and free agent tight ends Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst.

While that’s a lot of players to bring in, the only truly significant investments the Chargers made in were for McConkey (second round pick) and Dissly (3 year deal with $10 million guaranteed). The other players the Chargers brought in were essentially available at discount deal prices, not usually an indicator that a lot of production can be expected from them. For example, Vidal and Rice were picked toward the end of the 2024 draft. And the Chargers’ other free agency additions (besides Dissly) were signed for relatively small deals worth under $3.5 million in guaranteed money, usually for just one season.

But some of these guys could end up being huge values, especially given the cost to get them.

At receiver, I’m most excited about McConkey. He’s shifty with the ball in his hands, he’s got speed to burn (4.38 second 40 yard dash), and he’s capable of playing out of a bunch of different alignments. I’m hopeful he can become the Chargers’ best receiver at some point this year given what he flashed in college and the high draft pick the Chargers invested in drafting him. But it’s unfair to expect him to fill Keenan Allen’s shoes as a rookie and he’s got a history of leg and back injuries that limited his production in college.

At the same time, Josh Palmer should be a reliable contributor. DJ Chark has a 1,000 yard season under his belt and should at least provide some speed on the outside, which the Chargers desperately need—if he pops back to his early career form, signing him for cheap will be a huge win. Quentin Johnston has the physical tools to succeed at the NFL level if the new coaching staff can help him develop as a receiver, but he’ll have to improve dramatically to be a plus player this season. And anything the team can get from Brenden Rice, Derius Davis, and Simi Fehoko in terms of receiving production will be a win.

The Chargers’ new running game will also be interesting. Incoming OC Greg Roman has a long history of leading effective rushing teams. Roman’s offenses have finished amongst the top five teams in total rushing yards nine times in his 10 seasons as an offensive coordinator. The roster moves also should bolster the ground game. Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins have significant injury risks, but they’ve been very effective when they have been healthy. Edwards is a strong down-hill runner who routinely breaks tackles. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry or better four times in five NFL seasons and, for his career, averages 3.17 yards after contact per carry according to Pro Football Focus. Dobbins has a limited track record due to his extensive injury history, but he’s been impressive as a runner and receiver when he plays. In (somewhat) healthy seasons in 2020 and 2022, Dobbins averaged 6.0 yards per carry and 5.7 yards per carry respectively. Rookie Kimani Vidal was extremely productive at Troy, rushing for over 1600 yards and 14 touchdowns last year—but he’s untested and taking a big leap to NFL competition. The blocking additions should help, too. The Chargers spent the fifth overall pick in this year’s draft on top offensive tackle Joe Alt and Dissly, their big free agency acquisition at tight end, is a quality blocker.

Ultimately, there are a ton of question marks outside of Herbert, many of which center on injuries. If Roman can spur a strong running game, if guys stay healthy, and if someone can emerge as a credible receiving threat, Herbert is good enough to propel this team to a top 10-12 offense. If nobody emerges as a receiving threat, though, it may be slower going.

Can the Defensive Stars Show Out Again?

The Chargers have been reliant on a few highly paid, big name players on defense for the past few years. That’s true again this season, as the team’s three highest paid players other than Herbert are all on defense: Joey Bosa ($26.1 million), Khalil Mack ($25.4 million), and Derwin James ($19.9 million).

We know Bosa, Mack, and James are capable players—combined for 15 Pro Bowls, four All-Pro selections, a Defensive Player of the Year award, and a Defensive Rookie of the Year award—so the Chargers will need these three guys to both play at a high-level and be available on season to succeed on defense.

Mack is on the back-end of his career at age 33, but he’s coming off a stellar year in which he posted a career-high 17 sacks and generated a whopping 88 total pressures. He’s also still an elite run defender, receiving a 90.8 run defense grade last season from PFF. Perhaps most impressively, Mack has suited up for every game for the Chargers over the last two seasons and played 80%+ of the team’s defensive snaps, an incredible record of availability and consistency from the 10-year veteran. While he probably can’t reproduce the same sack totals as last year, having Mack available and playing at a near-Pro Bowl level (especially against the run) is going to be critical for the Chargers defense.

Mack’s partner on the edge, Joey Bosa, hasn’t been nearly as available the last two years in particular. As a result of numerous different injuries, Bosa has played in just 14 of a possible 34 regular season games over the last two seasons. In the games he has played in during that time, he’s been on the field for well under 60% of the total snaps played and has totaled just nine sacks. While Bosa’s pass rushing production has been solid on a per snap basis and he’s graded out well, his lack of availability on the field has been an enormous concern. Bosa will need to play a lot for the Chargers defense to reach its highest levels, but he’s already fighting the injury bug again this year: Bosa needed surgery less than a month ago for a broken hand suffered in a joint practice with the Rams in early August. Fortunately, and unlike prior years, the Chargers have decent depth on the edge in second year Tuli Tuipulotu and veteran edge rusher Bud Dupree, who signed in free agency. If Bosa misses games again, they should be able to survive—but they aren’t likely to be an above average unit without him.

Derwin James, for his part, is a do-it-all safety and the key player in the Chargers’ secondary. He’s been one of the most productive safeties in the NFL since entering the league in 2018, with first and second team All Pro selections and multiple Pro Bowl appearances. The Chargers have used James all over the field, including as a 1-on-1 defender for tight ends and slot receivers, as an in-the-box thumper, as a blitzer, and even as a deep third defender. His incredible versatility has been a tremendous asset for the Chargers in the past. Unfortunately, James struggled a bit in coverage last season. He posted by far the lowest coverage grade of his career at 57.0, far below his prior low of 74.4, per PFF. James has been relatively healthy and is still in his prime at 28 years old, so the dramatic drop-off may be an outlier. There are reasons to think so, too. James lost his counterpart at safety, Alohi Gilman, to injury last year and had to shoulder a ton of additional responsibility as a result. The Chargers defense also severely underperformed with Brandon Staley calling plays, and they cratered as a unit toward the end of last season, which ultimately led to Staley being fired. With Harbaugh and DC Jesse Minter now in town, James will need to play like a stud again for things to go well.

Will the Interior of the Lines Hold Up?

The Chargers have some incredibly talented players on both the offensive and defensive lines, but that talent is highly concentrated on the edges for both sides of the football.

On offense, Rashawn Slater is a top-tier young talent at left tackle who’s already made a Pro Bowl (though he had a bit of a down year last year) and right tackle Joe Alt has the tools to be a star. But the Chargers have real questions on the interior. Zion Johnson was a first-round pick in 2022, but his first two seasons have been truly mediocre as a pass blocker and his awe-inspiring physical tools haven’t translated to consistent, quality run blocking either. Johnson took a bit of a step back as a run blocker last year, but given his age and pedigree, there’s reason to believe he can continue to improve. Hopefully the new coaching staff, including OL Coach Mike Devlin and Assistant OL Coach Nick Hardwick (a former Charger’s star lineman) and Greg Roman’s offensive scheme can help Johnson unlock his potential. He certainly looks the part of an athletic freak, so we hope to see him play like it!

The Chargers other two starters are longer-term NFL veterans, but they’re in new situations. Trey Pipkins is entering his sixth season and started at right tackle the past two seasons, but he will kick inline to right guard with Joe Alt’s arrival. Pipkins has been a solid pass blocker for most of his career, but his lack of quickness has shown up at times on the edge, so moving inside may better suit his talents. That said, he’s been subpar as a run blocker and the Chargers will need him to perform better than he has in the past (Pipkins has never graded out higher than a 64 in PFF’s run blocking grade). Center Bradley Bozeman started for the Baltimore Ravens when Greg Roman was OC there, but he’s a new arrival in Los Angeles by way of a two-year stint with the Carolina Panthers. Bozeman is a solid run blocker, which should be an immediate improvement over Will Clapp, last year’s starting center. But Bozeman has never been particularly adept at pass blocking, so he’ll need to hold up well enough there to keep Justin Herbert from getting early pressure up the middle.

The Chargers do have reasonable offensive line depth for the first time in years, with guys like Jaramee Salyer and Foster Sarrell as backups. Those guys will be important, too, given you cannot expect the full line to be healthy all season.

I have a hard time seeing the Chargers sporting one of the best O-Lines in the NFL unless they can shore up the interior. I’m optimistic about Slater and Alt, but they really need one or two other guys to take a step forward to really have a strong unit as a whole.

I’m less optimistic about the defensive line, which could really be a struggle this season. The Bolts didn’t do much to shore up the unit that struggled the last couple of seasons. The Chargers brought back rotation D-Lineman Morgan Fox, Otito Ogbonnia, and Scott Matlock. They added free agents Poona Ford and Teair Tart on near-minimum deals and drafted Justin Eboigbe in the fourth round out of Alabama. At the same time, they lost guys who ate a lot of snaps last year, including Sebastian Joseph-Day, Austin Johnson, and Nick Williams—while none of those players provided much more than replacement-level play, they were a bit better in 2023 than 2022 and will inevitably be missed.

Ford, and to a lesser extent Tart, have been productive in the past, so there’s some hope they can return to their previous highs. Fox is a pass rush specialist and should fill that role well, but he has size limitations that prevent him from being an every-down DT. Eboigbe, Ogbonnia, and Matlock are all young and there’s a chance they could become contributors as they take on bigger roles, but none of them come with significant draft pedigree as they were all fourth round draft picks or later. One of those three guys will have to perform well above expectation for the interior D-Line to be average. More likely, the Chargers are going to have to rely heavily on solid linebacker play, with support from James at safety, and their edge rushers to contribute a ton in run defense.

How Big Is the Leap from Staley to Harbaugh?

I’ll be the first to admit that I was comfortable with the Brandon Staley hire when it happened. The hope was that Staley would come in and help shore up a Chargers defense that had been middle-of-the-pack despite having a number of really good players. The early returns on the team’s performance were good, too, as Staley went 9-8 and 10-7 in his first two seasons as head coach. Yet despite the team’s relative success, the defense never really came together. During Staley’s tenure as defensive play caller in 2021, 2022, and 2023, the Chargers finished 29th, 22nd, and 24th in points allowed and 23rd, 20th, and 28th in yards allowed respectively. Other team metrics were equally unkind: the Bolts were 26th, 20th, and 26th in Defensive DVOA according to FTN Fantasy.

More importantly, even with Herbert authoring 11 game winning drives in three seasons, the Chargers still lost 14 games (27% of their total games!) by 3 or fewer points, including a gut-wrenching loss to the Jaguars in the 2022 Wild Card round. That’s insane by any measure, but it’s infuriating when most of those losses happened simply because the Chargers defense couldn’t stop teams when it mattered.

Staley obviously knows football and there’s little reason to question his schematic acumen (the 49ers recently hired him as an assistant head coach to help their defense). Still, his tenure as head coach was defined by inexplicable collapses and ineffective defense overall. We may never know whether that was due to Staley’s lack of experience as a head coach, leadership, or just bad luck, but we do know that it was time for the Chargers to move on.

Bringing in a big-time coach like Jim Harbaugh is a welcome step up. There’s no real question Harbaugh has what it takes to win at a high level, as he’s done so at every stop. Harbaugh is fresh off a 15-0, national championship season at the University of Michigan. During Harbaugh’s nine seasons in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines went 89-25 (0.781). Before that, Harbaugh had a highly successful stint with the San Francisco 49ers where his teams went 44-19-1 and made a Super Bowl. Harbaugh also led the Stanford Cardinal out of the doldrums and into an Orange Bowl win in 2010, his tenure starting off a decade of phenomenal success for the Cardinal football program. And Harbaugh’s first stint as a head coach was a tremendous success, too, as he took the University of San Diego Toreros to a 29-6 record from 2004 to 2006.

Harbaugh won’t be the offensive or defensive play caller for the Chargers this year, but his influence on the team is unquestionable. If he can create the same culture of professionalism, competitive fire, and enthusiasm within the Bolts’ locker room that he has at every other stop, it’s going to be a huge step forward.

I mean, just listen to this guy—what a gem!

NFL Draft First Round Reactions

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft wrapped up last night. There were a fair number of expected picks and also some truly surprising developments.

In all, 32 players were drafted: nine offensive linemen, seven wide receivers, six quarterbacks, five edge rushers, three cornerbacks, one defensive tackle, and one tight end (no running backs, linebackers, or safeties were taken in the first round).

Let’s jump in with reactions to each pick.

Pick #1: Chicago Bears

With the first pick, the Chicago Bears select Caleb Williams, quarterback from University of Southern California.

No surprise here. For weeks, everyone has expected the Bears to take Caleb Williams, and this was a no brainer pick in my view. Williams showed incredible skill at USC, with a strong arm, accuracy, and a remarkable ability to make throws from odd angles and off-platform. Williams will join a Chicago Bears offense with a ton of talent at the skill positions, led by veteran Pro Bowl wide receivers like DJ Moore and the newly acquired Keenan Allen (we’ll talk about who else they added to the receiver room later).

Given the value of quarterback, there’s nothing to critique about this pick. The Bears will still have to develop Williams into a star, but they filled their most important position with the consensus top talent in the draft at the position. This is the right pick that was only made possible by the Bears trading away last year’s #1 overall pick to the Panthers (who selected Bryce Young) for Moore and a haul of draft picks.

Pick #2: Washington Commanders

With the second pick, the Washington Commanders select Jayden Daniels, quarterback from Louisiana State.

Like the Bears, the Commanders needed to find a quarterback in this draft. Daniels had a tremendous year at LSU, leading the country in passing yards and throwing for 40 touchdowns. Obviously, the Commanders liked Daniels the best of the remaining quarterbacks, and I agree. He gets the ball out quickly even though he was asked to make full field reads in college and he has elite touch throwing to the deep part of the field. He also has world class speed for the quarterback position, which may come into play if Washington doesn’t find a way to improve its offensive line play. I expect them to look for offensive line help on Day 2 of the draft so they can protect Daniels—he’s on the slim side, so they’ll want to avoid having him take too many hits.

Really great pick by the Commanders. They’ve got a ceiling raiser in their building.

Pick #3: New England Patriots

With the third pick, New England Patriots select Drake Maye, quarterback from North Carolina.

Maye has elite tools for a quarterback prospect. He’s big, strong, fast, and throws the ball well. He’s not as consistently accurate as Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels at this point in his career, which is part of the reason he goes third here.

From the Patriots perspective, this pick makes perfect sense. The team let Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick go this offseason, effectively hitting the reset button (he won six Super Bowls with the team over the last 23 years as head coach). They had no clear long-term option for quarterback on the roster. With a toolsy player like Maye still on the board, it’s a great opportunity for the team and quarterback to develop together. The Pats also have veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett on the roster, so to the extent they need to give Maye some time to develop and work on his decision-making and consistency, they can do so.

The Pats opted not to trade out of pick #3 to accrue more draft capital. The roster needs an overall talent infusion, so I’m sure there was some appeal to the idea of trading back for more picks. That said, I think it’s the right call to snag your franchise quarterback if you believe in the guy available—and clearly the Patriots do. Plus, at this point it’s still unclear whether a good offer was ever made by other quarterback needy teams like the Vikings or Broncos, so there’s no reason to assume trading back would make sense.

The Pats have an answer to their biggest open question, and they rightfully should be happy about that. Maye’s ceiling is incredibly high—they’ll have to find a way to help him maximize his talents.

Pick #4: Arizona Cardinals

With the fourth pick, the Arizona Cardinals select Marvin Harrison Jr., wide receiver from Ohio State.

Pick #4 was a potential pivot point in the draft, but it turned out pretty chalky as the Cardinals opt to keep their pick and select Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s nothing to criticize about this pick—the Cardinals had a huge need at wide receiver, a premium position, and they filled it with a player who has been atop many draft watchers’ boards for almost two years. Harrison Jr. will be the most talented receiver on the Cardinals the first time he steps on the field, and he gives Kyler Murray a go-to receiver who can work at all three levels of the field.

I wonder whether the Cardinals would have taken a godfather offer for this pick if they’d received one (given how the rest of the draft went, it seems doubtful they did). They have enough needs on the roster that I would’ve probably moved back. But without knowing they got such an offer, they made a strong choice, even though my personal receiver of choice in the draft was Malik Nabers.

Pick #5: Los Angeles Chargers

With the fifth pick, the Los Angeles Chargers select Joe Alt, offensive tackle from Notre Dame.

Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff have said repeatedly they want to strengthen the Chargers’ offensive line, so it makes sense that they would use their biggest draft asset on an offensive lineman. Joe Alt is, by consensus, the most complete offensive tackle prospect in the draft. He’s a fantastic pass blocker and sturdy in the run game and he does a good job avoiding penalties. Most importantly, he almost never misses an assignment, which an invaluable trait for offensive lineman (and one that is surprisingly often missing). He’s also allowed just two sacks in the last two years.

Alt played his entire collegiate career at left tackle and the Chargers already have a Pro Bowl left tackle on the roster in Rashawn Slater. That means one of the two will be playing another position next season. I’m guessing Alt at right tackle, but we’ll see. As a consequence, it’s hard to say this pick is the highest use of value even if it fits the team’s philosophy. Still, offensive tackle (on either side) is a high-value position, and the Chargers clearly weren’t content with their current options. Last year’s right tackle Trey Pipkins did not have a strong season and has struggled with blocking downhill in the run game for a couple years. Right guard Jamaree Salyer also struggled last season, though he had success as a rookie at left tackle filling in for an injured Slater.

It’s clear the Chargers are committing to an organization-wide philosophy that centers on high-level offensive line play. That makes a ton of sense given some of the most successful teams in football have rolled out top-5 offensive lines regularly (think the Philadelphia Eagles in recent years). There’s also some benefit to zigging while other teams zag, and as team’s league-wide have built defensive rosters to combat the pass, they’ve gotten smaller and potentially more susceptible to run-oriented teams with size up front. Drafting Alt isn’t going to automatically turn the Chargers into a dominant running team (there were probably better downhill run blockers in this draft for power/gap schemes, though we’ll have to see what the Bolts ultimately run), but he will improve the Chargers’ offensive line in that area. It will also help them protect their most valuable player, quarterback Justin Herbert, who has taken a few too many unnecessary hits in the past couple years.

I would have loved to see the Chargers take Malik Nabers here because wide receiver is the Chargers single biggest need and I think he’s an elite talent. Tackle, to me, was a situation where they were looking for an upgrade and not in dire straits. There are, however, a number of talented wide receivers that are still available following Round 1, and Joe Alt is probably the most complete offensive tackle in the draft class. All in, I like the pick and see the offensive philosophy underpinning it, but it hurts to pass on a guy like Nabers who would run wild with Herbert behind center.

Pick #6: New York Giants

With the sixth pick, the New York Giants select Malik Nabers, wide receiver from Louisiana State.

The Giants got my guy! Nabers was one of my Five Favorites in the draft overall.

This is a home run pick in my view, as the Giants offense has lacked a true #1 receiver for the last few years. Nabers’ speed and talent will give quarterback Daniel Jones an elite option who can slice through secondaries, catch deep balls (Jones has a very strong arm), and make house calls off easy completions like short slants. Adding Nabers will also let the other Giants’ receivers slot into their natural roles. Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson operate much better in the short- to intermediate-part of the field, and Hyatt can operate as a field stretcher alongside Nabers.

There was a legitimate debate as to whether the Giants should have taken a quarterback here given Daniel Jones hasn’t firmly established himself as the long-term answer. They can’t expect to draft at #6 often and this is a talented (and pretty deep) class at quarterback. But they are committed to Daniel Jones in 2024 to the tune of $36 million guaranteed (though they can move on afterward if needed) and he’s still only 27 years old. If he can stay healthy, Jones has a chance of recovering the form he found a couple years ago when he led the Giants to a playoff win over Minnesota, especially with the addition of Nabers. And there’s no guarantee that the quarterbacks left in this draft will outperform Jones in the short or even medium term, so sticking and picking Nabers here is a pretty solid move in my view.

Pick #7: Tennessee Titans

With the seventh pick, the Tennessee Titans select JC Latham, offensive tackle from Alabama.

JC Latham is big and powerful. He’s 6’6” and 342 pounds, and he is the definition of a “people mover” in the run game. He played right tackle at Alabama and started 27 games, so he’s got a lot of experience against some of the best competition in college football, so it’s easy to assume his skills will translate well to the NFL, especially run blocking.

I suspect Tennessee would’ve taken Alt if he was available here. Alt is a natural left tackle, and that was the biggest hole on the Titans line last year (it’s also the most expensive position on the offensive line to fill, so you get a ton of value drafting a left tackle that is good). Latham has only really played right tackle, though Alabama reportedly moved offensive linemen around during practice to get them experience. The Titans could slot Latham in at right tackle immediately, but they’d have to find where to put Dillon Radunz, who is probably their most effective returning offensive lineman. They could also move Latham to the left side to protect quarterback Will Levis’ blindside—Latham is likely capable of making the switch even if he has to push through a slight learning curve.

I do have a few concerns with Latham’s pass protection, as he’s a little prone to holding (especially against quicker D-Linemen) and can sometimes make mental mistakes. It’s all stuff that is fixable, but Latham has had years of top-notch college coaching at Alabama under Saban—you have to wonder a little bit how quickly he will clean it up. With that said, there’s no doubt Latham has talent and offensive tackle is a clear need for the Titans. Hard to complain about the pick with Alt off the table.

Pick #8: Atlanta Falcons

With the eighth pick, the Atlanta Falcons select Michael Penix Jr., quarterback from Washington.

This is where things got wild.

WHAT?! The Falcons actually took a quarterback?

In case you don’t remember (it literally just happened a month ago), the Falcons signed quarterback Kirk Cousins in free agency to a four year, $180 million contract with $100 million in guarantees. Let that sink in: $100 million in guarantees. When they signed that deal, it’s impossible to think that the Falcons expected to draft a quarterback in April—they effectively tied themselves to the 36-year-old Cousins through at least the 2025 season.

Apparently it was impossible for Cousins to think the Falcons would take a QB either, he was reportedly “a bit stunned” by the move. How can you blame him?

The Falcons signing Kirk Cousins with the money they did was a clear signal that they intend to compete now. They had obvious needs on the defensive line, both at edge and on the interior, and also could’ve benefited from adding a wide receiver or cornerback. No defensive players had been drafted to this point, so the Falcons could have had their choice between Byron Murphy, Laiatu Latu, Dallas Turner, or Quinyon Mitchell. Rome Odunze, a top 3 receiver in what’s been called an “all time” receiver class, was still on the board. They passed on all of them to take Penix.

I want to be clear here: Penix is a great player and a really good NFL prospect. He’s a great deep thrower, he’s got a live arm, he’s athletic, and he’s obviously a high-level competitor (he just led Washington to the National Title game). He has some injury history that’s a bit concerning, and he turns 24 in about two weeks. But this isn’t really about him.

By picking any quarterback, the Falcons basically undermined their entire offseason strategy. If they thought they would take a quarterback in the draft, they should never have handed Cousins the contract they did. If Cousins is good, they don’t need Penix. If Cousins is bad, they’ll never actually realize one of the biggest benefits of having a quarterback on a rookie deal—extra cap space—because they paid Cousins so much that his contract would eat it all up anyway. And that assumes that Penix can come in and play well if Kirk Cousins can’t. That’ll be hard to even determine given that either way, Cousins is going to get the nod at the starting job and Penix won’t have many chances to see live game action.

There is quite literally no way for the Falcons to find value at quarterback now for more than maybe a season or two (2026-27 by the way). Cousins will eat up $40 million in cap space in 2025, basically no matter what, and $25 million in dead cap for 2026 if the Falcons did decide to move on from him and let Penix take over the reins. They’re basically stuck in a world where the best they can do is a single from a value standpoint. That’s simply not a good use of resources.

The cost for this baffling move is a top 10 pick at a high value position of need (edge, DT, CB, or WR are all key positions that are hard to fill cheaply). Most teams hope that such a pick turns into Pro Bowl caliber player and expect at least a quality starter. That possibility is gone. The Falcons will also have to find another way to fill those positions either through the draft or with leaps from guys like Lorenzo Carter already on the roster.

If Penix becomes a high-end starter, there’s a way to make this pick look okay. But if the Falcons believe that has a good chance of happening (as they should if they drafted him at #8), it naturally raises the question of why they went after Cousins in free agency instead of lower cost, short-term bridge options at QB like the Raiders did with Gardner Minshew and the Patriots did with Jacoby Brissett. Penix wasn’t seen as a top 10 pick for most of the draft process, so presumably they could have known, or at least expected, there would be a path to drafting him even early in free agency. It’s hard to square the two decisions.

Pick #9: Chicago Bears

With the ninth pick, the Chicago Bears select Rome Odunze, wide receiver from Washington.

Chicago did the thing they didn’t do for Justin Fields, where they pair their young quarterback with a star receiver in the hopes it pops. That’s sensible, and a lot of teams have found success by making sure their young quarterback has weapons (Bengals drafting Ja’Marr Chase, Dolphins trading for Tyreek Hill, Bills getting Stefon Diggs). Rome Odunze is a stud and could absolutely become a high-caliber receiver in the league.

The only sort of funky thing is that Chicago already has star receivers. DJ Moore might be the most under-hyped receiver in the NFL, he is a dude. The Bears also just traded real draft capital (and committed real cap space at $23 million) to Keenan Allen, who was one of the most effective receivers in the NFL last season. Adding Odunze to the Bears’ wide receiver room gives them an embarrassment of riches at the position, and it’s fair to wonder whether the Bears could’ve used their second pick of the night on defense.

I love it. Odunze is going to be a stud at the NFL level—he’s big, fast, and an elite contested catch player. Odunze and Moore can man the boundary roles while Allen feasts out of the slot (where he’s at his best, particularly at this point in his career). Odunze will also have the opportunity to learn from two elite wide receivers with a ton of experience and benefit from their gravity in the short term. More importantly, Caleb Williams is going to have more than enough tools to hit the ground running. He’ll have guys who can beat 1 vs. 1 matchups at three different spots and guys who can operate effectively in different parts of the field. He might be able to challenge rookie passing records as a result.

The Bears will want to find a way to bolster their pass rush and add depth to their offensive line later in the draft, but they’ll have at least some chance to do so with picks in the third and fourth round.

Pick #10: Minnesota Vikings (from New York Jets)

With the tenth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select J.J. McCarthy, quarterback from Michigan.

The Vikings made the first trade of the night, but it was a bit later than expected. Rather than moving way up the board to get ahead of the Giants, the Vikes stayed patient and ultimately traded picks #11, #129 (4th round), and #157 (5th round) to the Jets for picks #10 and #203 (6th round). They still got their quarterback, J.J. McCarthy.

By waiting, the Vikings saved a ton of draft capital. The starting price to get a deal done with the Cardinals at #4 or Chargers at #5 probably would’ve been at least the Vikings’ two first rounders (#11 and #23). It’s hard to argue with getting that kind of bargain and still landing your guy. [Sure, it’s possible the Vikings could’ve paid up even more to get Drake Maye…but that seems both costly and unlikely given the Pats needed a QB.]

From a projection standpoint, McCarthy has all the tools you could want in a quarterback. He led Michigan to National Championship by playing efficient ball, making plays on third town, and avoiding negative plays. He’s also clearly got good physical tools, as he’s shown a strong arm, accuracy, and athleticism inside the pocket and breaking out when he needs to. The only real knocks are that McCarthy hasn’t had as many reps as other QBs in the draft and that Michigan’s roster was dominant overall, but those things aren’t actually negatives—they just point to some unknowns. Head Coach Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings offensive staff can figure out how to develop him, and he’ll have an elite weapon in Justin Jefferson on the outside to lean on too.

This was a masterful job of managing the board by Minnesota (who knows whether they had intel on what the Giants and Falcons would do) and holding on to as much draft capital as possible, even if it maybe got a little risky when Atlanta opted to take a quarterback.

Pick #11: New York Jets (from Minnesota Vikings)

With the eleventh pick, the New York Jets select Olu Fashanu, offensive tackle from Penn State.

The flip side of the first trade was the Jets getting pick #11. They moved back just one spot to pick up an extra fourth round pick and move up from the sixth round to the fifth. They presumably didn’t want a quarterback (long-term, that may be an issue), so that was a good piece of business.

They also made a prudent move by snagging offensive tackle prospect Olu Fashanu. Fashanu has elite physical traits, especially his movement skills, and it’s possible he could turn into the best tackle in the draft. While the Jets filled their tackle slots in free agency, they did so with short-term deals for Tyron Smith, who is 33 and has a lengthy injury history, and Morgan Moses, who’s also 33 and coming off surgery for a torn pec. Fashanu is the long term answer at tackle for the Jets, especially since former first round pick Mekhi Becton is no longer on the team. Fashanu needs to get stronger and still has plenty of development to do, but he should be a long-term player for the Jets.

I’ll admit I’m a bit surprised the Jets didn’t go for another weapon for Aaron Rodgers. Tight end Brock Bowers was still on the board and would’ve helped their receiving game. They’re going to have to rely on Mike Williams staying healthy (he’s coming of a torn ACL), star Garrett Wilson, and wizardry from Rodgers to keep the passing game going. They can do it, and that might be a better bet than relying on Smith and Moses to stay healthy all year. Ultimately, I see the Jets’ selection of Fashanu as the wiser move over the next 2-5 years, even if it’s unlikely to provide them as much of an immediate return this year.

Pick #12: Denver Broncos

With the twelfth pick, the Denver Broncos select Bo Nix, quarterback from Oregon.

In the words of one of my idols Tony Kornheiser, “I believe I had that.”

Bo Nix to the Broncos just made so much sense. Nix is a really good quarterback who routinely makes sound decisions quickly. He’s not a live arm like Michael Penix, but he’s got enough juice to make throws in the NFL. With Sean Payton at the helm, the Broncos will be able to roll out an offensive that accentuates Nix’s strengths and puts pressure on defenses if they can get enough out of their skill guys. I would like to see the Broncos get a little more help on the outside to aid Courtland Sutton (I hope the trade rumors quiet down for the sake of Broncos fans) and Marvin Mims.

Overall, I like this pick a lot. The NFL was high on this crop of quarterbacks—a record six QBs went in the first 12 picks—but the Broncos were able to find their guy without moving up the board, which is important given they’re already low on draft capital from the Russell Wilson trade. If Nix hits, it won’t matter that draft prognosticators had a late first or second round grade on him—the surplus value from getting a starting QB on a rookie contract is big enough to warrant slight overpays in draft value. The Broncos might not be able to take advantage of that surplus value given they’re still paying Russell Wilson, but that money is already spent, so I don’t think this pick can be reasonably docked for that.

Pick #13: Las Vegas Raiders

With the thirteenth pick, the Las Vegas Raiders select Brock Bowers, tight end from Georgia.

I really love Bowers as a player. He’s a stud with the ball in his hands and seemed to always make plays when Georgia needed them on the brightest stage. He’s got great balance and hands, and he’s got enough speed and feel to find ways to get open underneath all the time. While he’s more of a receiving threat than an elite blocker, Bowers also isn’t afraid to get his hands dirty as a blocker (there are some tight ends who basically “ole” when they block…I won’t name names). Ultimately, he’s going to be a good player for the Raiders from Day 1, which alone is a reason to like this pick.

I have a few small quibbles around the edges that really have nothing to do with Bowers as a player. The Raiders just used premium draft capital on tight end Michael Mayer last year, he was pick #35 in last year’s draft. While Mayer didn’t necessarily pop last season, he’s definitely got some talent and will need reps to unlock his potential. Adding Bowers to the mix also means the Raiders will probably want to roll out two tight ends relatively frequently. That would normally be fine, except it probably also means the Raiders use both their premier wide receivers, Davante Adams and Jacoby Myers, together with their tight ends less frequently than you’d want. It’s not a huge deal, but it’ll take some managing.

Picking Bowers also means the Raiders are committing serious draft assets and salary to one of the least valuable positions on the field in tight end. Bowers is set to make roughly $18 million over the four years of his rookie contract with a $3.3 million cap number for 2024 per Over the Cap. Mayer will make around $9.3 million and has a 2024 cap number of $2.1 million. That means the Raiders will have used early first and early second round picks and roughly $27 million on a lower value position. That’s kind of a lot.

I don’t want to overstate this. Taking Bowers at pick #13 is fine—unlike taking him in the top 5 picks, he doesn’t have to perform like a top 10 player at the position right away to return excess value. He’s also going to make their team better quickly. And the Raiders couldn’t have known they’d be taking Bowers at #13 this year when they drafted Mayer. It’s just a lot of assets to throw at tight end, and the Raiders had some needs elsewhere. With the six highest rated QB prospects off the board, though, I’m not sure any of the other needs were so high that they demanded a Day 1 pick.

Pick #14: New Orleans Saints Select

With the fourteenth pick, the New Orleans Saints select Taliese Fuaga, offensive tackle from Oregon State.

This will be short and sweet: I love Fuaga, and I love this pick. The Saints needed a tackle given the issues they’ve had with Trevor Penning’s development and injury concerns for starting right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk. I’m not sure they had a bigger need and tackle is a really valuable position to fill. That’s super important for a Saints team that has to find excess value in the draft given they don’t have a ton of cap space for the next 2-3 years. Fuaga is also a hoss and should be able to step in right away. And even if the Saints don’t need Fuaga to start at tackle, he can slot in at guard and be effective early. No question their offensive line improved substantially.

Pick #15: Indianapolis Colts

With the fifteenth pick, the Indianapolis Colts select Laiatu Latu, defensive end from UCLA.

This pick is really exciting. Latu is a fantastic football player that is ready to play in the league right away, even on a good defense. And while the Colts already roster a solid set of outside pass rushers in Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, and Dayo, Latu is more talented than all of them. You’re also never gonna go broke by drafting elite pass rushers. After quarterback, it’s the highest value position in the NFL, and having a rotation of good pass rushers has been a staple for a lot of successful teams in the past like the 2012 Super Bowl Champion Giants or the 2018 Super Bowl Champion Eagles.

Latu has some significant health questions, but to draft him this high, the Colts must have gotten comfortable with the risk. I have about as much medical knowledge as a rock, so I’ll assume they know what they’re doing. On the field, Latu doesn’t have many questions.

The Colts do pass on a cornerback here, which was a big position of need, and also a high value position. Some will question the decision to pass on their choice CB, but I think it boils down to defensive philosophy. You can absolutely build a defensive juggernaut by focusing on pass rushers, and that appears to be the Colts’ approach in terms of resource allocation. There are also decent corners still available for Round 2 and 3, so they can go back to that position later. Overall, I think this is a great pick.

Pick #16: Seattle Seahawks

With the sixteenth pick, the Seattle Seahawks select Byron Murphy II, defensive tackle from Texas.

The Seahawks got another one of my Five Favorites, so you can probably guess how I feel about this pick. I love it!

Seattle was a solid team last year, but they moved on from long-time head coach Pete Carroll in favor of hiring a modern defensive guru in Mike Macdonald. With a new head coach in town, it’s not a surprise Seattle would want to invest on that side of the ball. While the Seahawks have already invested quite a few resources into their defensive line, they’re their best interior pass rusher Jarran Reed is set to hit free agency after 2024. Murphy can add to the Seahawks interior pass rush right away and take over for Reed once he leaves. Defensive tackles who can create pressure are gaining traction as extremely high-value players in a league dominated by passing—just look at how much money Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins got this off-season.

The Seahawks could have picked an offensive lineman instead to shore up that side of the football. I’d picked Troy Fautanu for them in my mock draft the other day, and I still think that would have made sense too (don’t forget the low cost of moving). But I didn’t expect Murphy to still be on the board here, and he’s a big enough talent at a high-value position that I think he’s worth going for. Seattle will need to do something to shore up its offensive line next year, but they can go after positions like center and guard later in the draft.

Pick #17: Minnesota Vikings (from Jacksonville Jaguars)

With the seventeenth pick, the Minnesota Vikings select Dallas Turner, defensive end from Alabama.

The Vikings trade up again! This time, to move up six spots, the Vikings traded pick #23 and #167 (5th round), plus future third- and fourth-round picks in 2025, to obtain pick #17 from the Jaguars. [The Vikings had previously traded up to #23 with the Texans in March.]. With the upgraded pick, the Vikings took talented edge rusher Dallas Turner, a physical freak who has all the talent in the world to become an elite NFL pass rusher.

The Vikings lost star defensive end Danielle Hunter in free agency this offseason. While they were able to bring back younger, talented edge rushers in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, they weren’t set at the position. Van Ginkel in particular has never played a full season at edge, and he’s only under contract through 2025. Because edge rusher is so important, it’s hard to argue with adding a talented prospect like Turner to the mix.

Turner has some work to do on refining his pass rush skills. He’s drawn comparisons to elite talents like Von Miller, which shows how incredible his physical ability is, but he will only reach those heights if he can develop more consistent pass rush moves. That said, talents like this at defensive end are rarely available in the middle- or late- first round unless there are huge question marks in terms of injury history, off the field issues, or other non-football issues, and Turner doesn’t seem to have those. It’s a big swing, but one that I think is worth taking for the Vikings.

Pick #18: Cincinnati Bengals Select

With the eighteenth pick, the Cincinnati Bengals select Amarius Mims, offensive tackle from Georgia.

I had the Bengals going offensive tackle in my mock draft, so with four already off the board, it makes sense that they went for talented prospect Amarius Mims. My pick for them, JC Latham, was already off the board. I love the fit with Mims here. He’s raw but toolsy, and the Bengals can bring him along slowly if they need to because they already have two solid tackle options on the roster in Orlando Brown Jr. and Trent Brown. But Brown in particular is not a long-term solution, so having the ability to replace him full-time with Mims after the 2024 season is nice. I also like the Mims fit over other quality offensive line options like Troy Fautanu for the Bengals. Mims probably has a higher ceiling than Fautanu, and he’s a more natural fit at right tackle; Mims played on the right side in college, while Fautanu played left tackle. If the Bengals needed to slot someone in immediately Fautanu may have been a better bet, but given their circumstances, I think they went the right direction.

The Bengals also have potential needs at wide receiver and edge with two of their best players at those positions (Tee Higgins at WR and Trey Hendrickson at edge) reportedly seeking trades. But those needs aren’t really immediate, as both Higgins and Hendrickson are under contract for at least another year, and the Bengals may be able to re-build those relationships over the course of the next season. Even if they can’t, the Bengals will have other opportunities to address those positions if they need to.

Pick #19: Los Angeles Rams

With the nineteenth pick, the Los Angeles Rams select Jared Verse, defensive end from Florida State.

I’m a bit bummed that the Rams didn’t end up with Latu (who I mocked to the Rams), but sometimes great players go earlier than you expect. Verse is a high-quality alternative, though, and fills the same positional need for LA. Verse can rush the passer and probably plays the run better than Latu, and he will immediately boost the Rams’ defensive line talent. Verse has produced everywhere he has been, and he brings high-level disruption and toughness too.

A lot of folks think there’s a bit of a drop-off after Verse in terms of production at edge rusher for this class. I’m not 100% sure that’s true, but I also don’t think it really matters. Pass rush is something the Rams need to keep building after the loss of Aaron Donald, and Verse does it as well as anyone left in the draft. I don’t think he has the upside of Turner or the refined skills of Latu, but he’s got plenty of ways to be successful at the NFL level and I suspect the Rams will get the most out of him that they can.

Pick #20: Pittsburgh Steelers

With the twentieth pick, the Pittsburgh Steelers select Troy Fautanu, offensive tackle from Washington.

Fautanu is an AWESOME get for the Steelers. He’s plug-and-play at left tackle for them, which will let 2023 first round pick Broderick Jones stick on the right side while he continues to develop. Between the two young players, the Steelers have solidified their bookends on the offensive line. You’ve also got to feel good about the left side of the Steelers offensive line, with Fautanu slotting in next to left guard Isaac Seumalo.

I have no notes for this pick, it’s a great fit. The Steelers will need to find a way to address cornerback later in the draft, and I’d like to see them add a wide receiver and pass rushing depth too. But they filled the bigger need at a position of extreme importance with a really good player in Fautanu.

Pick #21: Miami Dolphins

With the twenty-first pick, the Miami Dolphins select Chop Robinson, edge rusher from Penn State.

This was a super interesting pick. The Dolphins lost both of their star edge rushers to serious injuries last year when Jaelan Phillips tore his Achilles and Bradley Chubb tore his ACL. While both are expected to play during the 2024 season, you can’t assume they will be back on time or at 100%. The Dolphins also lost their best defensive lineman, Christian Wilkins, to the Raiders in free agency and their best back-up pass rusher Andrew Van Ginkel to the Vikings. So, they’re looking at a tough situation along the defensive line.

Chop Robinson was a combine stand-out after he posted absurd testing numbers, but his lack of stand-out production in college suggests the Dolphins are baking in some projection based on his physical profile. Robinson generated a fair amount of pressure but didn’t get home as often as you’d like to see, and his tape shows he needs to improve his pass rush tool kit. With Latu, Turner, and Verse already off the board though, it’s not clear the Dolphins had better options along the defensive line. They’ll need him to come along quickly if Phillips and Chubb aren’t back to 100% early in the season, but that might be a tough ask.

The Dolphins passed up on O-Line to focus on the D-Line. I’m a bit surprised by that, but there is some logic to it. On the one hand, the Dolphins offensive line struggled after Robert Hunt and Connor Williams got hurt last year, and left tackle Terran Armstead has battled injuries for years. Hunt and Williams aren’t with the team anymore and Armstead is a year older. Shoring up the O-Line would’ve been nice to do, especially given how important it’s been to keep quarterback Tua Tagovailoa upright and healthy. On the other hand, the Dolphins whole offense is predicated upon getting the ball out of Tua’s hands quickly and stressing defenses laterally and vertically with speed at their skill positions. When that’s clicking, offensive line is a little less important for them than it may be for other teams.

Ultimately both OL and DL were big needs for the Dolphins, so I don’t want to fault them for going with Robinson. I probably would’ve leaned toward the offensive side of the trench, but it really comes down to what they think their odds are of landing an impact player at O-Line or D-Line in subsequent rounds of the draft.

Pick #22: Philadelphia Eagles

With the twenty-second pick, the Philadelphia Eagles select Quinyon Mitchell, cornerback from Toledo.

Howie Roseman seems to always get a steal, hats off! Mitchell is the best cornerback in this class (and one of my Five Favorites) and he’s going to be a stud in Philadelphia right away.

I’m stunned that Philly was able to sit at pick #22 and snag Mitchell. That’s amazing value, and they filled perhaps their biggest need with a great player at a key position. There’s nothing much else to say, this pick is a 10 of 10.

Pick #23: Jacksonville Jaguars (from Minnesota Vikings)

With the twenty-third pick, the Jacksonville Jaguars select Brian Thomas Jr., wide receiver from Louisiana State.

Jacksonville traded back with Minnesota to land this pick. For their trouble, they added a solid amount of additional draft capital in the #167 pick this year and future third- and fourth-round picks next year. That’s pretty good business, so I have to applaud them for making the move.

They land a really talented prospect in wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., who has a rare combination of size and speed for the position. Long term, his physical tools could make him the best receiver in this class (though I’d still bet on his teammate from LSU Malik Nabers). Adding a wide receiver with Thomas Jr.’s vertical receiving game chops is also really important for the Jags. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence needs weapons to hit his hoped-for ceiling and the Jags lost wide receiver Calvin Ridley to free agency. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram will give Lawrence plenty of options in the short and intermediate passing game, and Thomas can be the true vertical threat. I think he’s probably going to be better than Ridley was last year, so the Jags should be able to get better and cheaper at the position, a nice combination.

The only real downside of moving back is that the Jaguars don’t pick up cornerback or pass rushing help in the first round. With the way the board fell, adding a pass rusher probably didn’t make sense. But Terrion Arnold and Nate Wiggins were both still available and would’ve been nice options.

But adding key weapons for your franchise quarterback is rarely a bad thing. You can’t be mad at the decision to take Thomas Jr. over Arnold/Wiggins here.

Pick #24: Detroit Lions (from Dallas Cowboys)

With the twenty-fourth pick, the Detroit Lions select Terrion Arnold, cornerback from Alabama.

The Lions trade up with the Dallas Cowboys, sending picks #29 and #73 (3rd round) to Dallas in exchange for pick #24 and a future seventh rounder. Doing so allowed the Lions to snag Arnold, a top cornerback prospect, before teams like Tampa Bay or Arizona might have taken him.

Detroit came into this draft primarily needing to strengthen its defense. Last season, they gave up 5.5 yards per play (6th worst in the NFL). Most of the damage against Detroit came through the air, so finding a way to add talent to the pass defense in particular was key coming in. Personally, I favor doing so by adding pass rushers—it’s a more valuable position in terms of free agency dollars and you can’t just throw away from good pass rushers like you can with corners. But with the board as it fell, there weren’t elite pass rushing prospects available at value in the draft at this point of the first round. And Arnold had fallen a bit lower than expectations, so I can see why Detroit felt compelled to pounce.

Arnold is a tough, physical corner who will bring aggression and attitude to the Detroit secondary. He fits a need, and he’ll get on the field early and provide immediate value. From that perspective, this pick is a clear win. Detroit did give up a hefty amount to get him by shelling out its third round pick this year, but they have few enough needs right now that I don’t mind the slight overpay to move up.

Pick #25: Green Bay Packers

With the twenty-fifth pick, the Green Bay Packers select Jordan Morgan, offensive tackle from Arizona.

Green Bay has a ton of young talent on its roster and has already filled most of its key positions, so trying to figure out the direction they would go in the draft was tougher than for most other teams. They settled on the athletic offensive lineman Jordan Morgan, who has the ability to play guard or tackle at the NFL level (some analysts peg him as more of a guard due to shorter arm length, but he held up fine in college and should at least get a look at tackle). That versatility will be valuable in helping the Packers find the best combination of five O-Linemen on their roster to compete next season. The Packers could’ve gotten that same kind of versatility from the player drafted immediately afterward, Graham Barton, but it’s fair for them to prefer Morgan’s movement skills and dexterity.

Cooper DeJean was still available here and a lot of folks (me included) had the Packers taking him. But if the Packers see DeJean as more of a safety than a corner though, as many teams reportedly do, it’s hard to argue with preferring a potential offensive tackle from a positional value standpoint.

Pick #26: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

With the twenty-sixth pick, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select Graham Barton, offensive tackle from Duke.

This is a really solid piece of drafting by the Bucs. They have needs all along their interior offensive line and Barton has the positional flexibility to play either guard position or center (he also played tackle in college, but the Bucs are more set at that position with Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedecke in place). Plug Barton in for the biggest hole and go, it’s as simple as that.

The Buccaneers also could have used pass rush and corner help, but given how the draft board fell, this looks like a really solid outcome for them.

Pick #27: Arizona Cardinals

With the twenty-seventh pick, the Arizona Cardinals select Darius Robinson, defensive end from Missouri.

After snagging Marvin Harrison Jr. with pick #4, Arizona had two really big areas of need: defensive line and cornerback. They opted to go defensive line, taking defensive end Darius Robinson.

Robinson is a fantastic all-around player who straight up bodies people along the offensive line. Watch some tape from his college days—he is an ox that doubles as a school-yard bully on every play. It’s wild and fun to watch.

At 6’5” and 295+ pounds, Robinson doesn’t have the speed to really press the edge like some the edge rushers taken before him. He wins more with power, so he’s probably most valuable from a 5-tech alignment and down. That suits Arizona nicely as they run a base 3-4 scheme. Having a big body like Robinson who can also get after the quarterback is super valuable for them, and he’s versatile enough to stick on the field when they go to 2- or 4-down looks too.

This is a really solid pick that fits a high-value need. I would’ve liked to see them take Wiggins too, but I can’t fault the choice here.

Pick #28: Kansas City Chiefs (from Buffalo Bills)

With the twenty-eighth pick, the Kansas City Chiefs select Xavier Worthy, wide receiver from Texas.

I’ll be honest, this shocked me. The Bills traded back with the Chiefs—a team that has dominated them in the playoffs—when both teams are presumably targeting the same position: wide receiver. The trade details: Chiefs get pick #28, #133 (4th round), and #248 (7th round) and the Bills get pick #32, #95 (3rd round), and #221 (7th round).

In essence, the Bills gave the Chiefs the right to pick their remaining wide receiver of choice in exchange for moving up one of their picks about a round and a largely irrelevant 27 pick move up in the 7th round. That seems…risky? Crazy?

The Bills wide receiver corps rivals the Chargers for least proven in the NFL. Why are they moving back when they have their pick of the litter? They must like somebody later in the draft, but unless you know that player is going to be around, this is a crazy gamble. And to make that sort of gamble with one of your biggest playoff rivals is WIIIIILD! If Worthy hits for the Chiefs (who just won the Super Bowl with issues at wide receiver, by the way), the Bills will probably regret this. As a Chargers fan, I already regret it.

Let’s get to this from the Chiefs perspective. They needed a wide receiver, especially with looming criminal charges and a potential suspension for Rashee Rice, and they got the fastest dude in the draft—maybe in the history of the NFL. I am not a huge fan of small, speedy receivers in Worthy’s mold (nothing really against him personally), but I am terrified of how Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will take advantage of his skills. We all remember Tyreek Hill on that team, and they’re substantially better now. Combined with Marquise Brown, the Chiefs are going to have some serious speed on the outside. I don’t know how defenses are going to handle those two and TRAVIS KELCE in the middle…it’s going to be really, really annoying for everyone outside Missouri (or Kansas? Whatever, I don’t even care anymore).

Pick #29: Dallas Cowboys (from Detroit Lions)

With the twenty-ninth pick, the Dallas Cowboys select Tyler Guyton, offensive tackle from Oklahoma.

Dallas moved back to #29 and snagged an extra third rounder in the process. They still landed Tyler Guyton, the offensive tackle that I mocked to them at pick #24. Clap, clap, clap—that’s just good business. Kudos to Jerry Jones and the crew for great work in the first round.

I already talked about why Guyton makes sense for the Cowboys in my mock draft, so I won’t belabor the point. This is really solid work for Dallas.

Pick #30: Baltimore Ravens

With the thirtieth pick, the Baltimore Ravens select Nate Wiggins, cornerback from Clemson.

The Ravens have to be ecstatic that Wiggins was still around by pick #30. Cornerback is a clear need for them, and they managed to snag one of the best prospects in the draft at the position. While Wiggins needs to add strength and put on some weight, nobody questions his talent or want-to (or his speed, which is elite). The guy is a really good cover corner and a high-effort player. He’s going to thrive in Baltimore.

Excellent pick.

Pick #31: San Francisco 49ers

With the thirty-first pick, the San Francisco 49ers select Ricky Pearsall, wide receiver from Florida.

Now this is interesting.

Pearsall is a quality receiver who projects best as a slot player. He’s quick, shifty, and has a knack for finding space. And as you can see from the clip below, he can make some absurd catches:

Pearsall makes a lot of sense for the Niners. Brandon Aiyuk is looking for a new long-term deal and it’s not clear whether he’ll be back with the Niners long-term. Deebo Samuel is also expensive and will turn 29 during next season. We’re starting to hear rumors that one of them might be moved soon.

There’s also the question of Christian McCaffrey. Right now, CMC is a virtually unparalleled player out of the backfield that can fill a lot of the functions of a typical slot receiver. But he’s getting older and has missed time in the past due to injury. Adding Pearsall gives the Niners a more traditional slot option, which offensive wizard Kyle Shanahan could put to good use either alongside CMC or in the event that he’s out for a period of games.

Pearsall gives the Niners options. While they might have liked to add a tackle or corner, the way the draft shook out, there weren’t obvious first round locks that dropped to them. They obviously know more about their plans for Samuel and Aiyuk than we do as observers, but I presume the possibility of a trade involving one of them makes the Pearsall pick valuable insurance. We’ll have to see what happens before making any concrete conclusions.

Pearsall wasn’t my personal favorite of the wide receivers available at this point in the draft, but he probably fills the slot role as well or better than anyone else, and there’s no question he’s a good player. He’s also faster than a lot of people think, which will be useful for the Niners.

I’d still like to see the Niners find a corner or offensive tackle with their second rounder, and I think options will be available to them at one of those positions.

Pick #32: Carolina Panthers (from Buffalo Bills via Kansas City Chiefs)

With the thirty-second pick, the Carolina Panthers select Xavier Legette, wide receiver from South Carolina.

Another trade for Buffalo and, again, it’s a little perplexing. The Bills traded pick #32 and #200 (6th round) to the Panthers in exchange for pick #33 (2nd round) and #141 (5th round).

The Bills had to know the Panthers were likely to take a wide receiver (the Bills top need), otherwise why would they pay to move up just one slot? So, in effect, the Bills gave away their option to pick the receiver they liked (again), but this time in exchange for even less draft capital—59 draft spots towards the back of the draft.

If the Bills got some assurance from the Panthers about who they would pick, they might have felt comfortable switching slots for that kind of return. I find it hard to believe the Panthers would give that info up (or that the Bills could trust it was 100% reliable), but you never know. We’ll see what they end up doing at #33.

For the Panthers, they get their choice of the remaining wide receivers and take Legette. He’s a physical specimen and has really amazing speed when he gets in space. Without a first round pick heading into Thursday night, the Panthers realistically weren’t candidates for the top 3 or 4 receivers in the draft, but they should be happy to land Legette regardless. He’ll add speed to their offense and a different element than newly acquired Diontae Johnson.

I might have preferred Adonai Mitchell for them given his longer history of production and proven ability to score touchdowns, but Legette plays with far more consistency from down-to-down. I also like Troy Franklin, but his deep ball tracking skills probably pair best with quarterbacks that tend to throw deep more often. Wide receiver was the position of need for the Panthers heading in and they filled it with a good player—you’ve got to like that.

Wrap Up

That’s it for now! Let me know if you have thoughts in the comments or via email, I love to chat about this stuff.

I’ll probably do some sort of write up to cover the whole draft, but this was a ton of work on a short turnaround so I’m going to skip write ups after each day.

Thanks!

The Sports Appeal’s First Ever NFL Mock Draft!

The NFL Draft starts on Thursday, April 25. It’s a hopeful time for NFL fans, especially those who’ve been waiting tirelessly for good news since Week 14 when Justin Herbert’s finger broke and sidelined him for the rest of the season.

It’s also a time for Mock Drafts!

I’ve never tried one, but thought it would be fun to give it a shot. I had no idea how much time this would involve when I started, and holy smokes did I underestimate the effort involved. So here’s my first ever attempt at a real mock draft—I welcome any and all critiques (although I may never do this again if you’re too mean!).

Here’s the basics of how I approached it:

• I only went through four rounds because it gets pretty weedy after that. If you’re familiar with Round 5-7 prospects like I am, you’re potentially suffering from a serious illness and should seek help.

• I projected some trades in the first and second rounds, but shied away from trades after that as there’s just too much variability and guesswork involved at that point.

• For any trades I made, I tried to ensure that the team moving back recouped meaningful draft capital. I used the Fitzgerald-Spielberger draft value chart for guidance.

• I tried to be faithful to what I think teams will do given their current roster, salary cap situation, and philosophy. But I’m not a reporter, so I won’t pretend to have perfect insight into what they might be thinking (that said, no one does).

That’s it. Let me know what you think of your team’s results, whether you like the picks or I missed a player you’d love or I got the team needs wrong. It helps me learn for sure.

In the immortal words of Dak Prescott, here we go!

Round 1

Pick 1 - Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (QB, USC)

There’s not a whole lot of drama here. As I guessed back in January, Bears moved on from Justin Fields to make way for a new quarterback. Caleb Williams is the not-so-secret choice. The USC quarterback has been the gem of the draft for almost two years. He can play inside and outside the pocket and make every throw in the book. Don’t overthink this.

Pick 2 - Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)

Jayden Daniels had a meteoritic rise up draft charts this season after throwing for 3800+ yards and 40 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. Daniels led the Tigers to a nation-leading 543.5 yards of offense per game. Daniels has two elite attributes in his deep passing and speed. He averaged 11.7 yards per pass attempt, highest in the country amongst quarterbacks with at least 500 yards passing, and run sub-4.5 seconds in the 40 yard dash—elite for a quarterback. Despite an awkward meeting with the Commanders these week, Daniels should be the second QB off the board.

Pick 3 - New England Patriots: Drake Maye (QB, UNC)

The Patriots don’t have a future QB on their roster, but they’ve got lots of other holes too. I wanted to have the Pats trade back and pick up more draft capital, but I just can’t see them opting out of a potential long-term solution at quarterback given the value of a franchise player. They’ll get any offer made available to Arizona or the Chargers, but it would take some serious cajones for the Patriots to pull the trigger on a deal to move back.

Maye needs to work on his accuracy and mechanics, but he’s got prototypical tools for an NFL quarterback with great size and arm talent. He’s also flashed a lot of talent at times, especially in 2022. He could take longer to develop but the potential upside is obvious.

Pick 4 - Minnesota Vikings: JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)

Trade: Minnesota sends three first round picks (#11, #23, and a 2025 first rounder) to Arizona in exchange for pick #4. Arizona gets excess value equivalent to an extra top-5 first round pick in exchange for moving down.

Our first projected trade, and it’s a massive haul for the Cardinals!

Minnesota lost Captain Kirk Cousins to the Atlanta Falcons this offseason and the quarterback room looks a little bleak (with due respect to Nick Mullens, and Sam Darnold too I suppose). The Vikings signaled pretty clearly they wanted to move up when the snagged pick #23 from Houston earlier this spring, so a trade up shouldn’t come as a surprise. But moving up is expensive, especially with teams like the Giants, Broncos, and Raiders all potentially vying for a quarterback. Although Arizona will miss out on Marvin Harrison Jr. by making this trade, the return is too good to forgo. [As an aside, I see lots of mocks suggesting that Minnesota would make a deal with the Chargers. That’s possible, but it wouldn’t make a ton of sense from the Vikings’ perspective—why wait and risk somebody else leapfrogging you at 4? The price isn’t going to change much between #4 and #5.]

McCarthy is coming off a story-book season after leading Michigan to a National Championship. Though he wasn’t asked to carry the team himself (Michigan was loaded with talent), he’s accurate, poised, athletic, and sports a good arm. He also did a great job avoiding mistakes and playing within himself. Given he’s just 21 years old, there’s plenty of room for McCarthy to continue to develop, and putting him with an elite talent in Justin Jefferson and a strong offensive mind in Kevin O’Connell will help him succeed quickly at the NFL level.

Pick 5 - LA Chargers: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR, Ohio State)

There’s a lot of smoke that the Chargers would move down in the draft, but with McCarthy off the board, there isn’t a great trade partner available (while teams get desperate and go HAM to draft quarterbacks, there are rarely huge swings to snag other positions). There’s also a ton of smoke that the Chargers want to build through the trenches, though the actual evidence that either Jim Harbaugh or Joe Hortiz has ever done that in the NFL is scant.

Let’s not get cute. The Chargers receiver corps is both shallow and incredibly inexperienced, and there is elite wide receiver talent at the top of this draft. I’ve got the Chargers sticking and taking the best player on their board, which happens to be at their biggest position of need.

Marvin Harrison Jr. is the son of Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, who paired with Peyton Manning to be one of the greatest quarterback-receiver duos in league history. At 6’3”, 209 pounds, MHJ is significantly bigger than his father, but he sports the same elite receiver skills that allow him to win at every level of the field. In the last two years as a starter at Ohio State, MHJ racked up 144 catches for 2,474 yards and 28 touchdowns. He also beat up on Harbaugh and arch-rival Michigan to the tune of 119 yards and a touchdown per game (average), so if anybody should be familiar with his talent, it’s Harbaugh.

Personally, I’d love to see the Chargers pick Malik Nabers (my favorite WR in the draft), who has better speed and run-after-catch abilities, but that appears to be the minority position so I’m sticking with MHJ here.

Pick 6 - New York Giants: Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)

Malik Nabers is my favorite receiver in this year’s draft., and I wrote about him extensively in my Five Favorites post last week. Nabers’ defining trait is his speed—he’s the type of receiver that gives DBs nightmares and a threat to score any time he touches the ball, regardless of where he is on the field.

Despite taking a number of receivers in the second and third rounds over the past few years, the Giants haven’t been able to land a bona fide #1 receiver. Nabers can be that guy, and he gives the team one more shot to see if Daniel Jones can succeed as an NFL quarterback when surrounded with more talent.

The Giants could also try to trade up for Maye or McCarthy and secure a future quarterback, but the cost to move up is too high given other needs on the roster and the possibility that Jones can salvage his career in New York.

Pick 7 - Arizona Cardinals: Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)

Trade: Arizona sends a first rounder (#11), a second rounder (#35), and a 2025 fifth rounder to Tennessee in exchange for pick #7. Tennessee gets excess value equivalent to an extra late first round pick in exchange for moving down.

Hold up, another trade! Arizona general manager Monti Ossenfort has shown he’s not afraid of moving around the draft board. Last year, the Cardinals traded out of pick #3 and secured pick #12 and additional draft capital before moving back up the board to #6 to select tackle Paris Johnson Jr. This year, they’re doing something similar. In effect, the Cardinals exchange picks #4 and #35 for picks #7 and #23, plus the Vikings 2025 first rounder, a healthy haul.

The trade down costs the Cardinals their first choice of wide receiver, but they still nab an elite talent in Washington’s Rome Odunze. Odunze helped lead the Huskies to the NCAA National Championship (before eventually falling to Michigan), with production that rivaled anyone in the country: 92 receptions, 1,640 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns. At 6’3” and 212 pounds, Odunze has great size for an X receiver to go with incredible hands and very good speed (he ran a 4.45 second 40 yard dash). He dominated the college level and should continue to be effective on Sundays.

Pick 8 - Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner (Edge, Alabama)

This is a bit chalky, but I’ve got the Falcons picking defensive end Dallas Turner from Alabama. Turner fills a major need for Atlanta, which needs to improve its pass rush, as Grady Jarrett can’t sack the QB on his own every time. Turner has great physical traits—he’s 6’3”, 247 pounds, and has elite explosives (4.46 second 40 with a 1.54 second 10 yard split, 40.5” vertical jump, and 10’7” broad jump)—and he’s managed to rack up 25 sacks in three years at Alabama. He’s still got room to develop his pass rush toolkit (he relies too much on his athleticism now), and he could stand to bring pressure a bit more consistently, but a good coaching staff in Atlanta should be able to unlock his potential.

Pick 9 - Chicago Bears: Byron Murphy II (DT, Texas)

With the three top WRs already off the board, Chicago picks Byron Murphy to supplement its defensive line, and second one of my Five Favorites comes off the board.

Murphy is the type of pass-rusher who can generate incredible pressure from up the middle, and Chicago will greatly benefit from his presence. Murphy and Montez Sweat (who Chicago traded for last year) will give the Bears a strong pass rush to go along with an ascending defense overall. Though the Bears took Zacch Pickens and Gervon Dexter last year, neither is the level of player that Murphy is, so there shouldn’t be much of an issue. Plus, Chicago (somewhat amazingly) doesn’t have many huge needs outside QB, which they’ve already filled here, so they can afford a luxury pick that will raise the level of their defense overall.

Pick 10 - New York Jets: Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)

I went back and forth on this pick. Should the Jets take an offensive lineman or snag a weapon for Aaron Rodgers? At the end of the day, I can’t shake the idea that the Jets are going to just say YOLO and let Rodgers rock.

Tight end is one of the least valuable positions to draft, but Bowers is an exceptional talent. The Georgia product is fast, strong, and has excellent hands and run-after-catch skills (he was a high school running back in Napa). Playing at the highest levels of college football, Bowers routinely ate up everyone who tried to cover him. He’s going to produce in the league.

Taking Bowers means the Jets will have another quality weapon for Rodgers to go along with receivers Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams (who is coming off an ACL tear). The cost is that they are thin on the offense line, which in part derailed their season last year. The better long-term move is probably opting for an offensive tackle, but Bowers’ appeal is obvious—he’s a safe pick to contribute immediately.

Pick 11 - Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt (OT, Notre Dame)

The Titans traded back with Arizona to pick up #11 and a second rounder (#35). That’s great, because in this scenario they still land their preferred pick, offensive tackle Joe Alt.

Watching Alt play is kind of boring—he just does his job pretty much every time. He’s got great athleticism and size for his position and can hold up against speed and power rushers. He’s not the strongest OT in the class, and he isn’t a mauler in the running game, but he makes up for it through technique and getting quickly to his spots. There’s no secret that Tennessee needed to improve its offensive line, and Alt is a quality tackle prospect that they can expect to play right away.

Pick 12 - Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)

Quack, quack, quack.

The Broncos bailed on Russell Wilson early. As a result, they’re left with the memory of a disastrous trade and massive salary cap hits as a result (they’re paying Wilson almost $38 million to play for another team).

Even after trading for Zach Wilson this week, it’s pretty clear that the Broncos need better options at quarterback—and it has to come cheaply. The natural response is to draft a quarterback.

Bo Nix isn’t the sexiest quarterback prospect around, but he’s got a ton of experience (five years as a starter at Auburn and then Oregon). He’s been effective during that time, especially this past season where he threw for 4,508 yards and 45 touchdowns while completing 77.4% of his passes and throwing only three interceptions. Nix wins by making smart decisions and accurate short and intermediate throws; he won’t wow anyone with his arm talent down the field, but that’s not a pre-requisite for being a successful NFL quarterback.

Without a second round pick and with their division rival Las Vegas Raiders also in need of a quarterback, the Broncos are best off taking Nix rather than hoping to get better value by moving down the draft board.

Pick 13 - Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga (OT, Oregon State)

We’re sticking with the state of Oregon here as the Raiders take offensive tackle Taliese Fuaga to secure the right side of their offensive line. Fuaga is a massive dude at 6’6”, 324 pounds. While he’s not the most nimble tackle prospect in the draft, he has incredible strength that he uses to absolutely demolish defenders in the run game. If you like offensive linemen to be tone-setters, Fuaga is your guy. The Raiders are building their identity as a tough, physical team, and Fuaga fits that mold to a T. And since their set at left tackle with Kolton Miller, Fuaga can slot in at right tackle or guard and play immediately.

The Raiders forego a quarterback upgrade here, but they’ve got a serviceable option in Gardner Minshew on the roster already for this year. They also don’t get to bolster their interior defensive line, but with Murphy already off the board, there isn’t a good value option available anyway.

Pick 14 - New Orleans Saints: Olu Fashanu (OT, Penn State)

The Saints are in a tough spot in terms of roster construction. They’ve got a number of aging pieces on their roster, some holes to fill, and little cap flexibility to do it. They’ve got to draft with an eye toward finding talent at big money positions like offensive tackle, edge rusher, defensive tackle, and wide receiver (their corners are actually pretty solid). With only two picks in the first four rounds, there’s not a ton of room for error.

Offensive tackle may become the Saints biggest need if right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is forced to miss time with a knee injury (he recently suffered a setback in his recovery and there’s been talk of potential retirement). While the Saints drafted Trevor Penning in 2019, he has struggled mightily during his two years in the NFL and isn’t ideally suited to play left tackle. Fortunately for the Saints, the offensive tackle class this year is pretty strong at the top. I’ve got them taking a high-upside left tackle prospect in Penn State’s Olu Fashanu.

Fashanu has good size and length along with great functional athleticism for his position. At just 21 years old, he still needs to develop strength (he struggled in college with bigger defensive lineman) and master technique, but the ceiling is high. And unlike a number of the high-level tackle prospects, Fashanu profiles naturally as a left tackle.

Pick 15 - Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)

The Colts have a solid roster with few glaring holes, but they lack a shutdown outside corner; Kenny Moore got big money this off-season but he primarily lines up in the slot. Enter Quinyon Mitchell, one of the best defensive players in the class (he’s also one of my Five Favorites).

Even though Mitchell didn’t play against the top college competition at Toledo, he shined whenever he took the field. He’s got a great combination of size and speed to match all kinds of NFL receivers, he moves smoothly in coverage, and he has good ball tracking skills. By drafting Mitchell, the Colts snag the best corner available at a position of clear need.

Pick 16 - Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu (OT, Washington)

The Seahawks have talent on the outside but need to find a way to get better in the trenches. They strengthen their O-Line here by taking Washington star left tackle Troy Fautanu, who will only have to move south of downtown Seattle to play on Sundays (low moving costs are obviously a key factor).

Fautanu is a moving wall in pass protection. He’s an incredible athlete for the position, so he can stick with any edge rushers. At 6’4” and 317 pounds, he’s a bit on the short side for a tackle, but a lot of scouts have him projected as a guard where he also has experience, which negates the concern a bit. He’s got great 34.5” arm length to make up for a lack of size. Fautanu can plug in immediately on Seattle’s offensive line, whether at guard or tackle, and offer a significant upgrade right away.

Pick 17 - Jacksonville Jaguars: Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)

Jacksonville has spent up in recent years on its offense and just signed star pass rusher Josh Allen to a $150 million five-year deal. Now it’s time for them to find secondary help to pair with Tyson Campbell. Even with Quinyon Mitchell off the board, there are several quality cornerbacks available. The best among them last year was Alabama’s Terrion Arnold, who was tremendous in pass coverage last year under Nick Saban. Arnold came into the year less heralded than his counterpart in the Alabama secondary Kool-Aid McKinstry, but he regularly stood out, as he secured five interceptions and forced a fumble to go with 63 tackles.

Arnold plays aggressive but with discipline, and has smoothness and hand skills to stick with receivers without getting too grabby. He isn’t the fastest cornerback (an issue for several top corners in this class), but he has god size and strength to play press if he needs to.

Pick 18 - Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham (OT, Alabama)

The Bengals have to protect Joe Burrow to be effective. They recently brought in Trent Brown to play right tackle, but Brown is on a 1 year deal—if he plays well, the Bengals probably won’t be able to afford him in free agency next year. With the offensive tackle talent in the draft, the easy solution is to draft somebody and future-proof the position.

You could do worse than Alabama right tackle JC Latham. Latham is a hulking 6’6” and 342 pounds and shows incredible strength at the point of attack. And given he’s started 25 games at Alabama, there’s no doubt Latham has quality experience. He commits a few too many penalties and spends a little too much time blocking air (especially in pass protection), but there’s talent here in spades. If he doesn’t have to start immediately on the outside, he’s got the tools to develop into a quality tackle.

Pick 19 - LA Rams: Laiatu Latu (Edge, UCLA)

The Rams just lost one of the best pass rushers in history when Aaron Donald retired this past March. There’s no way for them to replace Donald’s production, but they’ll find a quality young pass rusher in their back yard by drafting UCLA’s Laiatau Latu.

Latu’s pass rushing production is miles ahead of anyone else in the class. According to Pro Football Focus, in the last two seasons Latu has had 25 sacks and 81 hurries, and he posted a 2023 pass rush win rate of over 26%. Those figures rival Will Anderson Jr., who burst onto the scene after being drafted #3 overall last year.Latu’s athletic profile doesn’t stand out much, but he’s got a solid combination of size, speed, and strength. Where he shines, though, is in technique. Latu has incredible hands that allow him to keep offensive lineman from getting hold of him, and he has a pass rush arsenal that looks like it belongs to a 10-year NFL veteran. Where a lot of college edge rushers rely on athleticism, Latu’s refined his technique so that he can roll out pass rush moves in combination with counters to keep offensive linemen off balance. He’s incredibly effective as a result.

Latu does have some medical concerns, as a neck injury caused him to temporarily retire from the University of Washington before he transferred to UCLA. That could depress his stock, but the Rams take advantage here and land a high quality prospect at a critical position.

Pick 20 - Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims (OT, Georgia)

The Steelers drafted an athletic offensive tackle out of the University of Georgia when they took Broderick Jones in 2023, but they still have obvious needs along the offensive line. Why not go back to the well?

The Steelers run it back here and draft Amarius Mims, a physical specimen and mountain of a man who profiles as a future star if he can stay healthy. Mims is mammoth at 6’8” and 340 pounds and he’s built like a super hero:

Seriously, I’m not sure whether this guy is a human or an alien version of Andre the Giant.

Mims has only started 8 games and he’s played only about 800 snaps in his career due to injuries, but the physical talent is wild. You see him move in ways that nobody that big has business moving, and he can push around smaller players with ease. He’ll need to develop of course, but he’s got all the tools you could want in a tackle and more.

Pick 21 - Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton (OL, Duke)

Graham Barton doesn’t scream South Beach and he isn’t the most physically imposing offensive lineman that will go in the first round. But despite going to an obvious basketball school, this guy can play football. He’s an effective player in run blocking and pass protection and has the versatility to play almost any position along the offensive line.

The Dolphins are built around speed and quick passes, but their offensive line needs to be retooled after getting wrecked by the Chiefs and then losing Robert Hunt and Connor Williams as free agents. Barton is good enough to start for the Dolphins immediately, as other than Terran Armstead, I’m not sure there’s a locked in starter on the roster. Plus, Barton’s position flexibility will help the Dolphins find the best five to put on the field.

Pick 22 - Philadelphia Eagles: Jared Verse (Edge, Florida State)

The Eagles have needs at linebacker and in the secondary, but GM Howie Roseman has a philosophy that works: draft for the trenches and figure the rest out later. They haven’t drafted a first round secondary player since Roseman took over the top job in 2010, and linebacker is a low value position, so you can bet they’re not going to fill either hole!

So what about the trenches?

The Eagles have had some changes at edge rusher and could use an infusion of talent soon. Josh Sweat remains the most complete edge rusher on the team, but situational pass rusher Bryce Huff has come in to replace Haasan Reddick. Brandon Graham is also getting up there in age, and we’ve yet to see whether Nolan Smith can produce.

Verse is a high-quality edge who can play the run or pass effectively. At 6’4” and 260 pounds, he’s more stout in run defense than Huff or Smith, so he can find a role even if those two are better pass rushers. The Eagles keep their defensive line fresh, so adding Verse to the rotation will allow them to get younger and cheaper while maintaining and core strength. For another year, the Eagles answer the question of what to do about their secondary with a clear answer: find good lineman.

Pick 23 - Arizona Cardinals: Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)

Arizona picked its number 1 offensive option by drafting Rome Odunze at pick #7. Now, with the extra draft capital they received from moving back, they can turn to another need in cornerback.

Nate Wiggins has qualities as a cover corner. He’s fast, fluid, and instinctive—and he gives great effort when he needs to—he’s had several chase-down tackles that saved touchdowns. But Wiggins is rail-thin and there are valid concerns that he can get bodied by bigger receivers and won’t be able to hold up well against the run. Nobody really questions the cover skills though, and he’s getting paid to cover people not tackle them.

Pick 24 - Dallas Cowboys: Tyler Guyton (OT, Oklahoma)

The Cowboys have had a reputation for great offensive line play over the last decade. But last year, they struggled to run the ball—in part because their talent along the O-Line has started to dwindle over the years. Former stalwart left tackle Tyron Smith is now with the Jets, and the Cowboys have three undrafted players holding down starting roles right now. So the Cowboys could use an infusion of younger talent on the line.

Guyton is widely considered to be a bit of a project, but he’s got the traits to be a quality tackle at the NFL level. He’s got size and strength, and he can move quickly for a huge 325+ pound man. Originally a defensive lineman, Guyton lacks experience—especially in run blocking given Oklahoma’s pass-heavy scheme. But there’s talent here and the Cowboys can take advantage of it while filling other needs like wide receiver later in the draft.

Pick 25 - Buffalo Bills: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR, LSU)

Trade: Buffalo sends a first rounder (#28) and a second rounder (#60) to Green Bay in exchange for pick #25. Green Bay gets excess value equivalent to an extra early third round pick in exchange for moving down.

Another trade! Green Bay has oodles of young talent and no obvious draft needs, so they take advantage by trading back with Buffalo. Buffalo is desperate for a receiver after dealing Stefon Diggs for a 2025 draft pick, so they move up to avoid potentially getting leap-frogged for their choice of receiver after the Big 3 (MHJ, Nabers, Odunze).

Brian Thomas Jr. is a rare athlete at 6’3” and 209 pounds with 4.33 speed in the 40. He can absolutely fly down the field put defenders on their heels, which is especially valuable when paired with a quarterback like Josh Allen who can flick the ball 70+ yards with ease. Thomas Jr. lacks polish as he is largely limited to vertical routes, but he’s got the chance to be special. He puts in good effort all the time and can make house-calls regularly; in fact he led the nation in receiving touchdowns last year with 17. Buffalo has some options in the short passing game, so getting a deep threat to really stretch defenses will be critical.

Pick 26 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson (Edge, Penn State)

Tampa Bay could go a few different directions here, but one obvious need is their pass rush. Yaya Diaby produced solidly after being drafted in the third round last year, but Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has never quite lived up to his first round pedigree on the other side. The Bucs would benefit from adding talent, and teams can never have too many good pass rushers.

With Turner, Latu, and Verse all off the board, the remaining pass rush prospects all have some flaws. Chop Robinson is the highest upside of those that remain, as he sports elite traits and an ultra-fast get-off. As expected, Robinson smoked the combine, where he ran a 4.48 second 40 yard dash and posted strong jumping and shuttle numbers. But Robinson still needs to develop refined pass rush moves, and his smaller size (6’3” and 254 pounds) can result in him getting pushed off his spot in the run game. He also had relatively middling production in terms of sacks given the physical tools, though his 20.9% pass rush win rate (per Pro Football Focus) was certainly respectable. Regardless, Robinson’s potential is obvious and he could develop into an elite pass rusher over time.

Pick 27 - Carolina Panthers: Adonai Mitchell (WR, Texas)

Trade: Carolina sends second (#33) and third round (#65) picks to Arizona in exchange for moving up to pick #27. Arizona gets excess value equivalent to an extra third round pick in exchange for moving down.

Just like the Bills, the Panthers get a little nervous here and move up to secure the highest ceiling receiver left in the draft in Adonai Mitchell.

The most important thing for the Panthers to do this off-season is give Bryce Young a chance to be successful. They’ve already started on that project, going big in free agency to secure quality interior offensive linemen and trading for former Steelers WR Diontae Johnson. But they still don’t have a big bodied receiver who can operate as a redzone option.

Mitchell fits that bill. At 6’2” and 205 pounds, Mitchell is a big, sure-handed receiver who has dominated in the redzone at both Texas and Georgia. He’s a true redzone threat who has five touchdowns in five College Football Playoff games. He also has elite speed for his size, having run a 4.35 second 40 at the NFL Combine.

You wonder a little bit about Mitchell’s motor. He can give halfhearted efforts at times, and he won’t always go full speed if he doesn’t expect the ball to come his way. If he can find a way to fix that, he’s going to be closer to the top 3 receivers in this draft than anyone else.

Pick 28 - Green Bay Packers: Cooper DeJean (CB/S, Iowa)

Green Bay drops back a few spots by virtue of its trade with the Bills and still secures the same player: Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean.

The Packers secondary could use some more talent despite adding Xavier McKinney this off-season. DeJean played corner at Iowa but many around the league think he will find his home eventually at safety (I am certain nobody is falling victim to any implicit biases in coming to that conclusion…). Regardless, the Packers will find space for him—he’s got incredible instincts, toughness, and a nose for the ball. He also returned punts for Iowa last season, and would’ve had a game-winning punt return touchdown against Minnesota if it weren’t for some absolute nonsense.

This dude can play football and Green Bay will be glad to have him in the secondary wherever he ultimately ends up.

Pick 29 - Las Vegas Raiders: Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Washington)

Trade: Las Vegas sends second (#44) and third round (#77) picks, plus a 2025 fourth rounder, to Detroit in exchange for moving up to pick #29. For its trouble, Detroit gets excess value equivalent to an extra third round pick in exchange for moving down.

After missing out on the first five quarterbacks taken in the draft, the Raiders move up to pick Michael Penix Jr. from Washington. By moving up into the first round, the Raiders ward off other teams like the Giants and Rams from moving up ahead of them in the second round for a QB.

Penix is a well-known commodity at this point and would be a big upgrade over Gardner Minshew at QB for the Raiders. He’s an elite deep ball thrower and put up electric numbers at Washington, ultimately leading them to the National Title game against Michigan. He led college football with over 4,900 yards passing last year, while tossing 36 touchdowns (against just 11 interceptions). Penix is already 24 years old, needs to work on his ball placement for underneath throws, and has had significant injuries in the past, but his success last year showed that when he puts everything together, he can be a really effective player. He also wowed scouts at his pro day by showing good athleticism, running a sub-4.6 second 40. That wasn’t on display at U-Dub, so there may be more in the cupboard than expected.

Pick 30 - Baltimore Ravens: Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)

The Ravens have had depth issues at cornerback for years. They can fill a need at a high-value position by selecting Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry at pick #30.

McKinstry is a really good corner who has consistently put quality play on film. He plays with fluidity and consistency in coverage, and he doesn’t make a ton of mistakes. Terrion Arnold definitely overtook him as a playmaker this year, but that’s more a reflection of Arnold’s stellar play that it was of McKinstry somehow falling off. He lacks elite athleticism and speed for a corner, which has pushed him down most draft boards, but he’s still got the skills to be a starter on Sundays.

Pick 31 - San Francisco 49ers: Jordan Morgan (OT, Arizona)

That the Niners are picking at the end of the first round again is a testament to the overall quality of their roster; they simply don’t have a ton of needs to fill. Still, San Francisco could stand to improve at tackle opposite of Trent Williams and at cornerback opposite Charvarius Ward.

Jordan Morgan is the best player left at those positions. He’s a really good athlete with good movement skills for a 6’6”, 320-pound man. His lack of natural strength shows up at times in run blocking and pass protection, which makes him more fit for a zone running scheme than a power/gap scheme. That matches well with the 49ers scheme, so Morgan will be a solid fit. Though Morgan’s experience is all at left tackle, he’s a good enough athlete to make the switch to the right side.

Pick 32 - Kansas City Chiefs: Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)

The Chiefs don’t really have needs because they have Pat Mahomes, who is good enough to render other offensive positions largely irrelevant. But if you had to pick something, it would be wide receiver—especially if Rashee Rice misses time as a result of legal issues stemming from a car crash. Kansas City picked up Marquise Brown, a deep threat with a small body, this off-season, so they can go for a complimentary piece.

Keon Coleman was a beast at Florida State after transferring from Michigan State (where he played football and basketball). He’s got the body to match, at 6’4” and 215 pounds with elite leaping ability. He caught 18 touchdowns in two years at FSU and had some highlight reel plays, including as a punt returner, but it felt like his overall receiving production was a bit lacking. He only averaged about 725 yards per season over the last two years, and he didn’t catch contested passes as often as you’d guess for a guy with his size. But his effort and athleticism were frequently on display, and you can’t teach his size. Speed is a bit of a question after he ran an unexpectedly slow 4.6 second 40 yard dash, but he was also clocked at the NFL Combine running over 20.3 miles per hour in the gauntlet drill (fastest among receivers), which suggests good functional speed despite the slower 40. The Chiefs will find a way to take advantage of his unique skillset.

Round 2

I’m going to cut down on the descriptions for Round 2 (my fingers hurt, too many words typed)—but trust that I put a lot of thought into this!

Pick 33 - Arizona Cardinals: Jerzhan Newton (DT, Illinois)

The embarrassment of riches for the Cardinals continues. They bolster their below-average interior D-Line with Johnny Newton, the best interior pass rusher in college football last year. Newton lacks the strength of Byron Murphy, but he’s a really disruptive player regardless.

Pick 34 - New England Patriots: Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)

After drafting Drake Maye, the Pats have to get him a weapon. Legette is a physical specimen who had an incredibly productive year last season with over 1,250 yards and 7 touchdowns. He’s big and has breakaway speed, but drops to the second round because he was a bit of a one-year-wonder (where was this his first four years at South Carolina?). He’ll bolster the Patriots receiving corps regardless.

Pick 35 - Tennessee Titans: Darius Robinson (Edge, Missouri)

Darius Robinson is a bit of a tweeter at 6’5” and 285 pounds, but he’s a disruptive pass rusher with great strength. He’s not as explosive as other NFL pass rushers, but he’s versatile and productive. The Titans have a reputation for developing disruptive defensive linemen with versatility and Robinson absolutely fits that mold. He’s good enough to compete with Sebastien Joseph-Day for a starting role right away.

Pick 36 - Washington Commanders: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, Missouri)

Rakestraw’s game screams toughness. He’s physical with receivers at the line of scrimmage and doesn’t mind putting his hat on somebody when he needs to. He at his best playing man coverage, though he graded out well in zone per Pro Football Focus. Similar to other CBs in this class, Rakestraw lacks speed compared to the top outside corners at the NFL level, which is part of why he falls to the second round.

Pick 37 - Atlanta Falcons: TJ Tampa (CB, Iowa State)

Trade: Atlanta sends its second round pick (#43) and a fourth round pick (#109) to the Chargers in exchange for pick #37.

Atlanta needs a cornerback to play with AJ Terrell and at this point in the draft, there aren’t a ton of obvious candidates to start right away. The Chargers, meanwhile, have a number of holes to fill and opt to move down rather than take a corner themselves (which they also need).

TJ Tampa has great size for a cornerback and doesn’t give much of that advantage back in terms of fluidity or coverage skills. He can get a little mixed up with shiftier receivers and lacks elite speed and recovery, but he’s got good strength to re-direct guys when he needs to. He’s a willing run defender too.

Pick 38 - Tennessee Titans: Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)

Franklin specializes in taking the top off the defense. He’s rail thin at 6’2” and 176 pounds, but he’s got good speed that regularly turned into chunk yardage at Oregon. He had over 1,380 yards and 14 touchdowns last year—how’s that for production? Giving Will Levis a deep threat like Franklin to pair with DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley will help the young QB thrive.

Pick 39 - Carolina Panthers: Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)

The one part of the offensive line that Carolina hasn’t invested in recently is center. Frazier is coming off an injury but was a three year starting center at West Virginia—his depth of experience gives him a slight edge of Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon here despite slightly less athleticism, as Carolina is trying to get Bryce Young as much immediate help as possible.

Pick 40 - Washington Commanders: Chris Braswell (Edge, Alabama)

Washington seems to have traded away all its edge rushers, sending Montez Sweat to the Bears and Chase Young to the 49ers. They take Braswell here to bolster their edge rush. Braswell was super productive last season with 13 sacks and 33 pressures per Pro Football Focus, and he’s got great athleticism. He may not have the same ceiling as the first round guys, though.

Pick 41 - Green Bay Packers: Braden Fiske (DT, Florida State)

The Packers can bolster their defensive line with a situational interior pass rusher in Braden Fiske. Fiske is incredibly explosive (he lit the combine on fire for a defensive tackle) and productive as a pass rusher, but he’s on the smaller end. With Kenny Clark approaching free agency next season, there’s no harm in the Packers giving themselves alternatives at D-Tackle.

Pick 42 - Houston Texans: Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)

Houston moved out of the first round via a trade with Minnesota earlier this spring, so this is their first pick. They’ve already addressed most of their big needs in free agency, but there is a need at cornerback opposite Derek Stingley Jr. Kamari Lassiter is a gamer who showed good instincts, fluidity, and cover skills at Georgia, but he had a disappointing 40 time (reportedly over 4.6 seconds), so there’s some concern about his ability to play on the outside in the NFL. Lassiter’s consistent play at Georgia showed he could hang with top dogs at the college level, though.

Pick 43 - LA Chargers: Kingsley Suamataia (OT, BYU)

Fine, I’ll bow a bit to the crowd here—the Chargers look to bolster their run game by taking BYU tackle Kingsley Suamataia. A cousin of Penei Sewell, Suamataia has great size and athleticism and can over-power defenders as part of a power run scheme. He’s got more upside than tackle prospects outside the first round, but he needs to work a lot on his technique in all areas. I suppose that’s what coaching is for.

Pick 44 - Detroit Lions: Adisa Isaac (Edge, Penn State)

After trading back with the Raiders, the Lions take Adisa Isaac from Penn State to supplement their pass rush. Aidan Hutchinson is a beast, but the Lions need someone to take advantage of the attention he draws. Isaac can join Detroit’s rotation with Marcus Davenport to help bring more pressure from the opposite side. Isaac was productive in college and has the physical tools to play at the NFL level, although he isn’t an elite athlete and has some room to improve his technique.

Pick 45 - New Orleans Saints: Ladd McConkey (WR, Georgia)

The Saints could use help on the defensive line, but they also need an underneath pass catcher to take advantage of the space created by Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. They take Ladd McConkey here as he’s the best player available. McConkey projects as a slot receiver, but he’s got good size and speed to pair with nice route running skills. He can also keep the Saints receiver room humming if Shaheed leaves in free agency after next season.

Pick 46 - Indianapolis Colts: Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)

The Colts filled their biggest defensive need in Round 1 and now turn to the offensive side of the ball. Worthy is absurdly fast—he ran a record 4.21 second 40 yard dash at the combine—and he plays like it. His game-breaking speed will create space for Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, especially with the threat of Anthony Richardson’s electric arm. Worthy isn’t as shifty as iconic speedsters like DeSean Jackson, but he’s can fill a clear role for the Colts.

Pick 47 - New York Giants: Javon Bullard (S, Georgia)

The Giants have needs all over the field, but after wide receiver, their biggest priority should be their secondary after the departure of safety Xavier McKinney. Bullard has great football instincts and is a willing tackler. He profiles well as a potential nickel corner, but he’s got experience dropping into coverage from the safety position too. He’s physical and will make his presence felt in games—he’s the guy who knocked out Marvin Harrison Jr. in the College Football Playoff game between Ohio State and Georgia in 2023.

Pick 48 - Jacksonville Jaguars: Marshawn Kneeland (Edge, Western Michigan)

The Jags are heavily invested at edge, but Travon Walker’s been a bit disappointing. Adding another pass rusher to the group gives them some insurance in case Walker can’t take a step. It would also give them versatility on clear passing downs. Enter Kneeland, who has great size and strength for the position at 6’3” and 275 pounds. Kneeland relies heavily on his power rush, but he’s strong as hell so it can work. He’ll need to develop a deeper bag of pass rush moves to live up to his potential at the NFL level.

Pick 49 - Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Lynn Polk (WR, Washington)

The Bengals franchise tagged Tee Higgins this year, but they need a plan to move on from him if they can’t repair the relationship. They also let Tyler Boyd walk in free agency, so they’ve got space in their receiver room. Polk is a really good football player who was highly productive at Washington, racking up 1,159 yards and 9 touchdowns opposite Rome Odunze. Polk isn’t as big as Higgins, but he has good size, never shies away from contact, and routinely pulls down contested balls.

Pick 50 - Philadelphia Eagles: Ricky Pearsall (WR, Florida)

The Eagles also quietly have a need at receiver, even with big money being spent on AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Pearsall profiles as a really good slot receiver as he excels at working in tight spaces and shows solid short-area quickness. He’s got great hands and enough speed to create a little bit in space too. With defenses focusing on Brown and Smith, Pearsall could eat underneath alongside Dallas Goedert.

Pick 51 - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)

The Steelers are one of many teams that need a center. Although the position has been devalued league-wide, Jackson Powers-Johnson (“JPJ”) has all the tools to be a high-level starter. He’s huge for a center, weighing 330 pounds, but he’s extremely athletic and quick nonetheless. By adding Broderick Jones in 2023 and Amarius Mims and JPJ in 2024, the Steelers are setting their O-Line up to have some of the biggest and best athletes in the trenches across the NFL.

Pick 52 - LA Rams: Max Melton (CB, Rutgers)

Rutgers hasn’t produced a lot of NFL talent lately, but I love Max Melton’s game. At 5’11”, 187 pounds, Melton may fit best on the interior, but he’s athletic enough to warrant a look as an outside corner—he posted solid explosion numbers at the combine compared to a lot of other corners in the class. He’s tough and likes to play physical, which helps him win plays early but can result in some undue grabbiness at times. He’ll have to clean that up to avoid penalties in the NFL.

Pick 53 - Philadelphia Eagles: Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)

The Eagles finally fill a real “position of need” with their third pick of the draft (slot receiver is a bit of a luxury for them). Edgerrin Cooper is a stellar athlete at linebacker and his production last season was off the charts. He’s a really strong athlete who holds up well in pass coverage, which makes him a good fit for the modern NFL. But he can fall off tackles and can run himself out of plays sometimes, and he needs to work on his play recognition skills. Still, with his incredible athletic traits, the Eagles can find a way to get him on the field even if his best skill early on is as a blitzer.

Pick 54 - Cleveland Browns: Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)

The Browns don’t have their first pick until #54 overall thanks to their trade for Deshaun Watson. Linebacker is probably not their highest position of need, but Payton Wilson is a talented linebacker who can find his way into an effective role on an already-elite defense. Wilson has good size and elite athleticism for the position, and he’s got versatility to play inside and outside, or as a pass rusher if he needs to. That kind of versatility can be put to good use immediately by defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.

Pick 55 - Miami Dolphins: Roman Wilson (WR, Michigan)

Miami loves fast receivers, and Roman Wilson fits the bill. The Dolphins want to get their receivers on the move to stress defenses and Wilson gives them another weapon to do so. And quietly, Tyreke Hill could be done in Miami sooner than later, as he’s got no guarantees on his deal after 2024 and the Fins will have to pay quarterback Tua Tagovailoa soon. Having another speedster on the roster will increase Miami’s flexibility in the off-season after 2024. Michigan’s national title run also showed that Wilson is also a gamer who shows up in big moments—whenever the Wolverines needed a big play, Wilson seemed to break one.

Pick 56 - Dallas Cowboys: Jonathan Brooks (RB, Texas)

The Cowboys need a running back and they don’t need to go far to find one in Jonathan Brooks. Brooks suffered a torn ACL last season, but he’s a talented back who does a little bit of everything—size, speed, agility, vision, balance, and tackle-breaking ability. Brooks is widely considered the best back in the draft and will help elevate the Cowboys’ run game along with first round pick Tyler Guyton.

Pick 57 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Sainristil (CB, Michigan)

The Bucs need to bolster their secondary after trading away Carlton Davis. They brought in Bryce Hall on a 1 year deal to build up their depth at outside corner, but they could use some juice in the slot. Sainristil is a Wolverine, both as an alum and in spirit. He’s undersized but tough as nails, never shying away from contact and always willing to play physically. He’s got great instincts for finding the ball, perhaps as a result of time he originally spent at receiver. He would compete for a starting job right away.

Pick 58 - Green Bay Packers: Brandon Coleman (OT, TCU)

Brandon Coleman has all the physical tools necessary to play tackle in the NFL, but his play was inconsistent. He played really well in 2022 as TCU made a run to the National Championship game, but he bounced around between guard and tackle in 2023 and struggled a bit. The Packers don’t need Coleman to start right away, but his upside and positional versatility would bring them some depth on the O-Line and growth prospects.

Pick 59 - Houston Texans: Maason Smith (DT, LSU)

You can’t take Maason Smith this high based on his college production, as Smith struggled to find consistency this season after coming back from an injury that caused him to miss all but one game in 2022. But his physical traits are absolutely tantalizing and Houston can afford to take a big swing on him. Smith is 6’6” and weighs 315 pounds, and he’s shown he has really good power and movement skills. He needs a lot of work on technique and play recognition, but if he can figure it out, he can be a Pro Bowl caliber player.

Pick 60 - Green Bay Packers: Tyler Nubin (S, Minnesota)

The Packers already have Xavier McKinney and Cooper DeJean from the first round, but they snag Nubin here anyway in the hopes that DeJean can work out at corner. Nubin has great play recognition and coverage skills and finds ways to get the ball in his hands. Despite that, he also does a good job playing his run responsibilities, which can be hard to find in modern safeties. Combined with McKinney and DeJean, you’re looking at a safety group that is versatile and can really turn teams over.

Pick 61 - Detroit Lions: Brandon Dorlus (DT, Oregon)

Standing 6’3” and weighing in at 283 pounds, Dorlus is a bit of a tweener who may bounce between roles as an edge rusher and interior lineman. But he brings versatility, strength, and disruption when he’s on the fields (although he could be more consistent). Even if Dorlus can’t bring the every-down consistency that stars like Hutchinson does, adding him to the pass rush group would give the Lions another good player to let throw out different looks, especially on passing downs.

Pick 62 - Baltimore Ravens: Kiran Amegadije (OT, Yale)

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player drafted from Yale, but I guess if you absolutely dominate the Ivy League you can make it pro. Amegadije won’t be ready to start right away, but the Ravens don’t need him to—they can help him build strength and get experience against NFL-level talent before he steps on the field. With Ronnie Stanley getting older and approaching free agency, the Ravens would benefit from developing another potential tackle prospect. Amegadije also has some experience at guard if they need to play him there.

Pick 63 - San Francisco 49ers: Andru Phillips (CB, Kentucky)

The Niners finally get to take a corner! Phillips is a good athlete who has experience both at outside corner and in the slot. He’s more natural in man coverage than in zone and doesn’t have the ball instincts of some corners who will go later in the draft, but he’s got size, speed, and can swivel his hips to play sticky coverage. He’s also not afraid of playing in a crowd and will come up to make plays in the run game if called upon, though he could stand to wrap guys up better. If he can round out his technique in zone coverage, he’ll find time on a good team.

Pick 64 - Kansas City Chiefs: Roger Rosengarten (OT, Washington)

The Chiefs let go of left tackle Donovan Smith in free agency and now need someone to protect Mahomes. Rosengarten played right tackle at Washington, but was responsible for protecting Michael Penix’s blindside (Penix is left-handed). He’s a bit limited athletically and not necessarily the strongest tackle around, so he may never pan-out as a long-term solution. But Rosengarten does a good job of finding a way to stay on blocks and could function as a spot-starter early if needed. He’s also young enough to reasonably project some physical improvement, especially in terms of strength.

Round 3

We’re down to Round 3 and I have few more words left. The notes are going to get shorter.

Pick 65 - Arizona Cardinals: Christian Haynes (OG, UConn)

Haynes was a standout at the Senior Bowl and can shore up the Cardinals interior offensive line.

Pick 66 - Arizona Cardinals: Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)

Developmental defensive tackle with an intriguing blend of size, strength, and athleticism. He’s got experience playing inside out to head-up on tackles. Probably needs to keep adding weight to reach his peak on the interior.

Pick 67 - Washington Commanders: Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)

The Commanders feel weird without a quality tight end (apologies to Zach Ertz, whose best years are behind him). Sanders is a quality receiver for a tight end but light in the run game and ran slower than expected.

Pick 68 - New England Patriots: Patrick Paul (OT, Houston)

Paul is a project but has the chance to become an effective pass protector at the NFL level. He’s got great length, but needs to build strength.

Pick 69 - LA Chargers: Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)

Harbaugh gets a Michigan guy! Jenkins is a powerful athlete who excelled in the run game, but he’s still got a fair amount of work to do to become a credible pass rush threat. The Chargers need a dude on the interior, though, and Jenkins can be it.

Pick 70 - New York Giants: Cooper Beebee (OG, Kansas State)

The Giants need to build talent on the O-Line and Beebee has experience playing a variety of positions. He’s got good size and power, which gives him a solid floor as a prospect even though he isn’t necessarily an elite athlete for the position.

Pick 71 - Arizona Cardinals: Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)

This is one of my favorite players in the third round. Corley is a dog with the ball in his hands, and he can bring a physical element to the receiving game that the Cardinals do not have. Paired with Rome Odunze and Michael Wilson, you can picture some pretty nasty WR screens going Corley’s way.

Pick 72 - New York Jets: Dominick Puni (OG, Kansas)

After eating dessert first and drafting Brock Bowers in the first round, the Jets turn to the trenches and grab Dominick Puni from Kansas. Puni plays with power and has experience at guard and tackle, so he can fill in if the Jets do suffer injuries on the O-Line.

Pick 73 - Detroit Lions: Jermaine Burton (WR, Alabama)

Jermaine Burton has a really strong athletic profile, with decent size (6’0” and 196 pounds), speed (4.45 second 40 yard dash), and explosion. His production at Alabama and Georgia was a bit underwhelming, though. Off-field issues and reports of character concerns push Burton down the board, but Detroit can afford to take the risk here—they won’t actually need him if he doesn’t find a way to fit in.

Pick 74 - Atlanta Falcons: Jonah Elliss (Edge, Utah)

Dallas Turner is the Falcons pass-rushing prize from this draft, but Elliss can also help out as a situational pass rusher. He has a solid variety of pass rush moves and plays hard all the time; he also has the college production to prove it, as he had 13 sacks in his last season at Utah. He’ll need to get stronger and add bulk to become a three-down player.

Pick 75 - Chicago Bears: Devontez Walker (WR, UNC)

Tez Walker is a luxury pick and a bit of a project. He has a great combination of size and speed, but he didn’t produce nearly as much as you’d like to see and he struggles at times with tracking the ball and drops. He also needs to work on his footwork to do more than run vertical routes—getting him in a room with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore may help unlock his potential.

Pick 76 - Denver Broncos: Jalen McMillan (WR, Washington)

The Broncos need help in the receiver room and McMillan is a good player out of the slot. He’s got decent size and speed, and does a good job finding space, but he will need to work on his ability to make plays in a crowd to be really effective.

Pick 77 - Detroit Lions: Jaden Hicks (S, Washington State)

Hicks likes to hit people and plays with aggression all the time. He wants to come up and make big hits. But he’s got some work to do on technique, including reading plays. He’s got the size and athletic traits to bet on though and can contribute on special teams early.

Pick 78 - Washington Commanders: Calen Bullock (S, USC)

Bullock is more of a coverage safety. He’s rangy and does a great job of reading quarterbacks. He’s on the smaller side and can struggle defending the run. While he’s willing to mix it up, he can get tossed around a bit. Washington’s biggest secondary issues are really with coverage though, and Bullock can help with that.

Pick 79 - Atlanta Falcons: Kris Abrams-Draine (CB, Missouri)

Falcons need a slot corner and Abrams-Draine was a menace last year. He’s small, but he breaks up a lot of passes and can turn QBs over. He’s never going to be the best press corner or tackler, but the Falcons have already added TJ Tampa in the second round to address those needs.

Pick 80 - Cincinnati Bengals: Jaylen Wright (RB, Tennessee)

Another one of my Five Favorites, it pains me that Wright has to wait this long to find a home, but there aren’t many teams with huge running back needs earlier in the draft. Wright has big-play speed and if he gets space, he can break a game wide open. He’ll bring a different skill set than Zack Moss and Chase Brown.

Pick 81 - Seattle Seahawks: Blake Fisher (OT, Notre Dame)

The Seahawks continue to build out their offensive line by selecting Blake Fisher, an athletic right tackle from Notre Dame. Fisher isn’t plug-and-play like Troy Fautanu, but if he can build up his strength, he’ll be able to slot in at right tackle (assuming Fautanu eventually lands at guard).

Pick 82 - Indianapolis Colts: Austin Booker (Edge, Kansas)

The Colts don’t have huge needs to they take a swing here on a toolsy pass rusher in Austin Booker. Booker needs to add bulk and strength, but he’s got good length and produced last year for Kansas. He could develop into a high-quality player if given time.

Pick 83 - LA Rams: Junior Colson (LB, Michigan)

Colson is a traditional middle linebacker who does a little of everything well. The Rams could use depth at middle linebacker, and Colson has the chance to develop into a starter for them over time.

Pick 84 - Pittsburgh Steelers: Khyree Jackson (CB, Oregon)

The Steelers have a clear need at corner opposite of Joey Porter Jr. Khyree Jackson is enormous for the position (6’3”, 195 pounds), but he still moves well and displays good flexibility. He can get caught looking in the wrong places, but the tools are really good.

Pick 85 - Cleveland Browns: Brenden Rice (WR, USC)

The son of Jerry Rice, Brenden Rice has really nice size for a receiver. He’s not the quickest guy on the field, but he can get up to decent speeds when he needs to. He had solid, though not outstanding production at USC. Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and David Njoku are going to be the primary receiving threats in Cleveland, but Rice can work his way into a rotational role.

Pick 86 - Houston Texans: Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (LB, Clemson)

Trotter Jr. is the son of former Eagles stand-out linebacker Jeremiah Trotter Sr. He’s got great athleticism and plays smart football, including doing a nice job of finding his run fits and playing sticky in pass coverage. But he has significant size limitations at just 228 pounds with shorter arms. But Demeco Ryans will love his ability to find the ball and stick his nose in the mix.

Pick 87 - Dallas Cowboys: Javon Baker (WR, Central Florida)

The Cowboys are thin at receiver and need to starting looking for cost-controlled options as extensions for Dak Prescott, Ceedee Lamb, and Micah Parsons loom. Baker has some developing to do, but he’s got good size and manages to separate well enough to put up good production.

Pick 88 - Green Bay Packers: Bralen Trice (Edge, Washington)

Trice is one of those defenders who just screws things up. He’s always creating havoc and pushing quarterbacks off their spot, which is a nice talent to have. He generated 99 pressures in the last two seasons according to Pro Football Focus. Trice doesn’t have elite get-off, but he’s got good size and strength to wreak havoc (even if it’s not always controlled).

Pick 89 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trey Benson (RB, Florida State)

Benson has a really interesting athletic profile—at 6’0”, 216, he’s a bigger back, but he has really fantastic breakaway speed. He runs hard and can break through arm tackles, but he’ll need to play with a bit more physicality to be at his best. He’s a bit too eager to try to get outside to use his speed, he’s got other clubs in the bag.

Pick 90 - Arizona Cardinals: Bucky Irving (RB, Oregon)

Bucky Irving is pretty small at 5’9” and 192 pounds, and he’s not as fast as you’d like at that size with 4.55 second 40 speed, but he produced like crazy at Oregon, with almost 1,192 yards on the ground and another 395 yards receiving. He plays really hard, doesn’t shy away from contract, and he’s got versatility. I’m a bit scarred by seeing Oregon backs with similar profiles who couldn’t reproduce their success in the NFL (hello, LaMichael James), but Irving deserves a shot.

Pick 91 - Green Bay Packers: Mason McCormick (OG, South Dakota State)

McCormick is a bit of a depth pick for the Packers. They could use interior offensive lineman, and McCormick has as good of a chance to pop as anyone at this point in the draft. He can really move people around in the run game.

Pick 92 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (C, Georgia)

Van Pran-Granger has started 44 games for Georgia since 2021, so you know the guy can play football. It’s not always pretty and he can get off-balance at times, but he finds a way to handle his assignment consistently. The Bucs have some holes on the interior of their O-Line and Van Pran-Granger should help solidify things there.

Pick 93 - Baltimore Ravens: Malik Washington (WR, Virginia)

The Ravens need to find some receiver help for Zay Flowers, but at this point in the draft the top prospects are gone. Malik Washington is on the smaller side, and his skillset overlaps a bit with Flowers, but he was incredibly productive in college and can find time on the field immediately.

Pick 94 - San Francisco 49ers: Michael Hall Jr. (DT, Ohio State)

Hall Jr. is the last of my Five Favorites on the board, and he finds a good home in San Francisco. Hall is small for an every-down defensive tackle, so the Niners would use him primarily on passing downs. Nick Bosa, Leonard Floyd, Javon Hargrove, and Hall could make for a pretty scary pass rush group on third down.

Pick 95 - Kansas City Chiefs: Jalyx Hunt (Edge, Houston Christian)

The Chiefs are often playing with a lead, so pass rushers are a key part of their defensive success. Hunt is athletically gifted enough to play in the NFL, but he still needs a lot of work (to say nothing of the competition jump he’ll face coming from Houston Christian). The Chiefs can develop him as a backup and hope he can convert his athletic traits into production.

Pick 96 - Jacksonville Jaguars: Cole Bishop (S, Utah)

Bishop has starting caliber speed, size, and athleticism, so he could easily go higher in the draft than this. He plays with force and is a willing tackler, but he can sometimes get too loose with his assignments. Jacksonville could use his versatility to enhance their physicality in the secondary.

Pick 97 - Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Hart (CB, Notre Dame)

Hart is a big, physical corner who may ultimately be better suited to special teams. But Cincinnati’s cornerback room is on the smaller side and the Bengals will appreciate having a bigger DB who they might be able to develop into a starter on the outside.

Pick 98 - Pittsburgh Steelers: Jamari Thrash (WR, Louisville)

Thrash has the coolest name of any wide receiver in the draft. He’s got good vertical speed and does a solid job tracking the ball, but he can improve his functional play strength so that he can catch the ball through contact. The Steelers need another receiver after letting Diontae Johnson go, and Thrash may be the best remaining receiver.

Pick 99 - LA Rams: Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)

Rattler may never develop into a starting quarterback, but with Stafford approaching the end of his career, the Rams should look to put themselves in position to have a replacement on the roster if they can get lucky. Rattler’s had a bit of an up and down career, but he’s got enough talent to potentially succeed at the NFL level if he can play with more pace.

Pick 100 - Washington Commanders: Javon Solomon (Edge, Troy)

Solomon is undersized (with short arm length) and played at a lower level in college, but he managed to rack up 17 sacks last season anyway. The Commanders need pass rushers, though, so taking a flyer on Solomon with a compensatory pick is a worthwhile shot to take.

Round 4

Alright, my fingers are truly tired. Nothing to say about these guys except the Chargers (I can’t help myself), but you can email me if you want to know more about any of them!

Pick 101 - Carolina Panthers: Blake Corum (RB, Michigan)

Pick 102 - Seattle Seahawks: Brennan Jackson (Edge, Washington State)

Pick 103 - New England Patriots: Xavier Thomas (Edge, Clemson)

Pick 104 - Arizona Cardinals: Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Texas Tech)

Pick 105 - LA Chargers: Caelen Carson (CB, Wake Forest)

The Chargers badly need corner depth and Carson has the athletic profile to do it, with solid size and adequate speed. He’s got a good amount of experience playing in different types of coverages and has displayed solid coverage skills and a willingness to play strong run defense too. He’s battled injuries in the past, which he’ll obviously need to avoid.

Pick 106 - Tennessee Titans: Kamren Kinchens (S, Miami)

Pick 107 - New York Giants: Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)

Pick 108 - Minnesota Vikings: Jarvis Brownlee (CB, Louisville)

Pick 109 - LA Chargers: Marshawn Lloyd (RB, USC)

Lloyd is a talented running back with starting caliber athletic traits. He’s got speed, burst, and the chance to turn into a solid pass catcher. He won’t be used in a starting role, but he could bring some juice to the run game.

Pick 110 - LA Chargers: Christian Mahogany (OG, Boston College)

Even though I think the hype about the Chargers drafting OL early is a bit overrated, they do need some more guys. Neither Zion Johnson nor Jamaree Salyer showed enough at guard to have a vice-grip on a starting role, but they’ll probably keep their roles initially. Mahogany offers good power in the running game and a downhill mentality that Harbaugh and Greg Roman will appreciate.

Pick 111 - New York Jets: Tykee Smith (S, Georgia)

Pick 112 - Las Vegas Raiders: Ray Davis (RB, Kentucky)

Pick 113 - Baltimore Ravens: Renardo Green (CB, Florida State)

Pick 114 - Jacksonville Jaguars: DeWayne Carter (DT, Duke)

Pick 115 - Cincinnati Bengals: Cade Stover (TE, Ohio State)

Pick 116 - Jacksonville Jaguars: Ben Sinnott (TE, Kansas State)

Pick 117 - Indianapolis Colts: Blake Watson (RB, Memphis)

Pick 118 - Seattle Seahawks: Sione Vaki (S, Utah)

Pick 119 - Pittsburgh Steelers: Mohamed Kamara (Edge, Colorado State)

Pick 120 - Philadelphia Eagles: DJ James (CB, Auburn)

Pick 121 - Denver Broncos: Hunter Nourzad (C, Penn State)

Pick 122 - Chicago Bears: Jarrian Jones (CB, Florida State)

Pick 123 - Houston Texans: Matt Goncalves (OT, Pittsburgh)

Pick 124 - San Francisco 49ers: Marist Liufau (LB, Notre Dame)

Pick 125 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tanner McLachlan (TE, Arizona)

Pick 126 - Green Bay Packers: T'Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)

Pick 127 - Houston Texans: Will Shipley (RB, Clemson)

Pick 128 - Buffalo Bills: Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona)

Pick 129 - Minnesota Vikings: Mekhi Wingo (DT, LSU)

Pick 130 - Baltimore Ravens: Zak Zinter (OG, Michigan)

Pick 131 - Kansas City Chiefs: Theo Johnson (TE, Penn State)

Pick 132 - San Francisco 49ers: Tyrone Tracy (RB, Purdue)

Pick 133 - Buffalo Bills: Tanner Bortolini (C, Wisconsin)

Pick 134 - New York Jets: Luke McCaffrey (WR, Rice)

Pick 135 - San Francisco 49ers: Christian Jones (OT, Texas)

Another Look At NFL Positional Value

Like any good overzealous NFL fan, I’m spending a lot of time these days thinking about the upcoming NFL draft in April—undoubtedly too much time. One of the things I’ve been toying with lately is finding ways to assess which positions to target in the draft, ignoring the prospects of individual players—what I’ve been calling “positional value.” I previously looked at positional value from a money standpoint by looking at which positions teams focus their salary cap spending on. From that vantage point, it’s apparent that quarterbacks take home the lion’s share of team spending, with edge rushers a distant second. Wide receivers, defensive tackles, offensive tackles, and cornerbacks are the next tier, while other positions like center, running back, tight end, and off-ball linebacker are clearly not valued as much and net much smaller contracts.

But there are of course other ways to look at positional value, so I wanted to talk through some of them.

Which Positions Do Teams Actually Prioritize For Their Best Draft Picks?

One thing I wanted to look at is when teams actually draft particular positions. The NFL draft has seven rounds, so we can try to assess positional value by looking at which positions typically get drafted higher in the draft. It’s a relatively simple task in concept, but there are some things I had to clean up to get good positional groupings since teams may draft a player who played one position in college intending for them to play another role at the pro level. For example, a fair number of college cornerbacks get drafted with the expectation that they’ll ultimately play safety in the NFL; same thing for college tackles who may profile physically as NFL guards.

Using info from Pro Football Reference, I pulled every draft pick from the last 10 drafts and categorized each player (excluding pure special teamers like kickers, punters, and long-snappers) into the following positions: quarterback, wide receiver, tight end, running back, offensive tackle, offensive guard, center, edge rusher (includes defensive ends and 3-4/rush linebackers), defensive tackle (aka interior defensive line, same thing), linebacker (off-ball), cornerback, and safety.

There are a few house-keeping items I wanted to acknowledge off the jump, specifically regarding how I selected player’s on-field positions as of the time they were drafted.

1. I checked what position each player in fact played during their first few years in the NFL to confirm they were slotted correctly. For example, I categorized Micah Parsons as an edge rusher even though he played off-ball linebacker in college, as Dallas moved him to edge rusher in the summer leading up to his rookie year. This is obviously an imperfect way of handling things, and there is some degree of my judgment baked in. I did my best, and I’m happy to email anybody the list of positions I used for each player if you’re curious.

2. I chose not to divvy up positions further than the categories described above. That was deliberate. I didn’t draw distinctions between left and right offensive tackles and offensive guards, as those positions shift a lot from where guys play in college, or even from where NFL teams initially hope they will land—quite often, players drafted in the hopes they will eventually be left tackles or left guards often move to the right side if their skill sets are better suited there or if a greater need develops on that side of the line for a particular team.

3. I also didn’t draw any distinctions between slot, X, and Z wide receivers, nor any distinctions between boundary cornerbacks and nickel/dime cornerbacks. Players often switch between those roles in different coaching schemes after they’re drafted, and it’s really tough to get reliable data at scale. I note this just because conventional wisdom suggests that left tackles/guards are more valuable than right tackles/guards, X/Z receivers are more valuable than slots, and boundary corners are more valuable that nickel/dime corners. I don’t dispute any of that, but it’s more than I set out to address here.

4. Finally, I chose 10 years of draft data on purpose, though I admit it’s a bit arbitrary. Things change quite a bit in the NFL over time, and I didn’t want to go so far back that it would mask current trends. For example, 20 years ago, running backs were highly sought after, but it is pretty evident that is no longer the case. Going too far back into the past runs a very real risk of including too much historically dated information to make any analysis about the current NFL useful. On the flip side, I also didn’t want such a small time period that it would be impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions from having too small of a dataset. Thus, 10 years seemed about right.

So, where are teams spending their picks?

[Figure 1]

Figure 1 shows the percentage of players drafted in each round for the 12 positions I looked at over the course of the last 10 drafts, from 2014 through 2023, as well as the total number of players drafted at each position (at the bottom in parentheses).

There’s a fair amount that can be seen from this chart, but I want to focus on what I found most notable in particular.

• A very high percentage of drafted quarterbacks (almost 28%) are drafted in the first round, but there’s a relative dearth of quarterbacks taken in the second round (under 7%). At the same time, there isn’t really anything notable about the proposition of QBs getting drafted in rounds 3-7. That suggests QBs who aren’t quite first round talents are often getting pushed up from the second round. That does appear to happen—for example, the Ravens and Vikings traded up from the second round to the very last pick in the first round to draft Lamar Jackson in 2018 and Teddy Bridgewater in 2014, respectively. Surely this trend is in part because teams can also secure a fifth-year of team control for first round picks, which can lead to significant financial value for the team if the player winds up being successful, especially for QBs.

• After quarterbacks, teams appear to select a high percentage of their offensive tackles and edge rushers in the first round. Over 19% of drafted offensive tackles and nearly 18% of drafted edge rushers are taken in the first round. That makes sense given the premium teams place on these positions in free agency. Also, for offensive tackles in particular, there may be a similar trend of players getting pushed up from the second round to the first round as with QBs, although it’s less pronounced—there’s a big drop-off from the percentage of players taken in round 1 to round 2 compared to other positions.

• Just like with free agency spending, teams do not want to spend up, in terms of early draft capital, on low-value positions in free agency like tight end and running back. Only about 18% of drafted running backs and 20% of drafted tight ends are taken in the first two rounds. A similar trend occurs withs with drafted guards (about 20% taken in the first two rounds) and linebackers (about 17%). I was a little surprised to see how low the percentage of guards taken in the first two rounds was. Even though it’s not a “high value” position, it’s still higher value than RB, TE, and LB.

• Teams appear to use a high proportion of middle round picks on the lower value positions I just described. Around 54% of tight ends, 50% of running backs, 55% of guards, and 50% of linebackers are taken in rounds 3 to 5 —tight ends, running backs, guards, and linebackers. Compare those numbers to quarterbacks and offensive tackles, centers, and cornerbacks, where around 39% to 41% are taken in the middle rounds.

• There’s a weird thing going on with centers, who teams appear to typically forgo in the first round and prefer in the second round. Only 9% of drafted centers are taken in the first round, but over 30% of centers are taken in the first two rounds taken together. I am not sure there’s an obvious reason behind this trend, but it definitely stands out amongst the lower value positions. This could be coincidence given the relatively low number of centers drafted compared to other positions.

• I was surprised to see that wide receivers and cornerbacks are pretty evenly drafted through the seven rounds. They’re among the highest value positions in the free agency market, so I would’ve guessed that teams were drafting them more frequently in early rounds. I will flag that the fact that my dataset doesn’t distinguish between slot and boundary players is probably masking some trends. In addition, it’s also worth noting that WR and CB are usually the two deepest positions on NFL rosters—most teams carry 5+ receivers and corners respectively—so it makes sense that teams have to draft a lot of them.

• It’s notable that defensive tackles haven’t been drafted all that early relative to edge rushers. Only about 22.5% of defensive tackles are taken in the first two rounds compared to about 33% of edge rushers. For years, conventional wisdom has said that edge rushers are more valuable given their pass rushing role, but that weighting has changed a lot in recent years. More and more DTs are becoming elite pass rushers (Aaron Donald comes to mind), so they’re getting paid like it. The free agency spending data I looked at previously showed that DTs are the fourth highest paid position based on average annual contract value, trailing only QBs, edge rushers, and WRs. And at the top end, DTs are paid pretty closely to edge rushers—the top 20 DTs are paid about 90% of what the top 20 edge rushers get in terms of average annual contract value—so I would’ve expected edge rushers to get a slight advantage in the early draft rounds, but it’s still more than I would’ve thought.

By looking at where teams draft particular positions over time, we can get some insight into how NFL teams on the whole are valuing different positions without getting bogged down too much in individual talent evaluations. Combined with looking at positional spending, we can get a pretty decent picture of which positions are priciest in terms of dollars and assets (draft picks) in order to weigh where to allocate resources. Unsurprisingly, the two markets show a fair amount of similarities. The two markets agree that QBs are the most important position and price them accordingly (big dollars in salary, and first round pick expense in the draft). Both markets also seemingly agree that edge rushers and offensive tackles are premium positions, while RB, TE, LB, and safety aren’t. Some of the other positions present some interesting value opportunities. For example, WR and CB are expensive positions to fill in free agency, but team’s aren’t necessarily allocating their early draft picks to those positions disproportionately—that suggests there’s value to be had by drafting those positions rather than filling them with veteran talents at market prices. Centers might be the opposite—it’s a really cheap position to fill in free agency, but a big chunk of centers are getting drafted in the first two rounds.

Can You Prioritize What Positions to Draft By Looking At Production?

One of the benefits of determining the relative value between the various positions is figuring out which positions to focus on during the draft. If a given position is expensive to fill in free agency, such as quarterback or edge rusher, it makes sense that teams would benefit from filling that position through the draft where salaries are set to a rookie scale for up to five years for first round picks (four years for non-first round picks). Of course, the biggest potential values also come at the high-end of each position.

A top 10 overall NFL edge rusher can command around $25 million or more per year in average compensation, which will lead to a comparable salary cap hit (before cap manipulations to push cap hits into different years). A top 10 center is likely to command somewhere between $10-13 million in average annual compensation. Meanwhile, the #1 overall pick in this year’s draft (the highest compensated draft slot) draft will have a 2024 cap hit of just over $7 million per Spotrac. In other words, a team will save about $18 million or more in cap space by drafting a defensive end that performs comparably to top 10 edge rusher, but they would only save about $3-6 million in cap space by drafting a top 10 center. The exact amounts will vary by position and player quality of course, but the basic idea is fairly intuitive—teams save cap space by hitting on draft picks at the right positions, and they can use that cap space in free agency on better players at other positions that they don’t (or can’t) fill through the draft.

Teams realize this, which probably helps explain why some high value positions are drafted disproportionately in the first few rounds of the draft (as shown in Figure 1).

But drafting positional value also depends on some other assumptions.

One built-in assumption is that players drafted in round 1 are likely to be better than players drafted in round 2 (and so on). Put another way, players drafted higher are more likely to be good. That makes sense, and if you believe (as I do) that NFL teams are collectively good at evaluating talent, it’s a reasonable assumption.

There’s also an assumption that teams will “hit” on draft picks at about the same rate regardless of position. If you could identify top 10 centers much more often than top 10 edge rushers, for example, it would eat into the value proposition of drafting edge rushers more often and earlier than centers. But that’s a tough question to assess without looking at how teams and draft analysts rate individual players. Perhaps I’ll look into it more down the road, but for now, it’s a bigger project than I want to take on in this post.

A third assumption is that prospect quality at each position follows a relatively similar pattern. We would expect round 1 players to be better than round 2 players, round 2 players to be better than round 3 players, and so on and so forth—but what if the changes in player quality by draft round change at different rates for different positions? You can easily imagine a world where round 1 quarterbacks are great but round 3 quarterbacks basically never see the field—after all, only one QB plays at a time—but that’s much harder to imagine for a deeper position like cornerback, where 5-6 players might see playing time in a game. So I wanted to check into it here.

Draft Round vs. Production

You can imagine a variety of ways to evaluate how different positions compare with respect to performance by draft position. You could look at how many All Pro teams or Pro Bowl teams players make, you could look at counting stats like passing yards or receiving yards relative to their position, you could look at all-encompassing metrics like individual DVOA. Whatever measure you choose, they’re all going to be imperfect, especially given the wide variety of roles in football. Measuring players based on yards or touchdowns alone usually won’t work when more than half of the positions on the field will never accrue a yard or score a touchdown. So I wanted to pick a metric that is theoretically applicable to all 12 positions I cared about, and where it was reasonably possible to get the relevant data (with apologies to metrics Pro Football Focus grades, which are a pain in the butt to compile). Lucky for me, Pro Football Reference has a custom performance metric called weighted career approximate value that they have calculated for players drafted in the last 10 years (my focus) and more.

Pro Football Reference gives a full description of the approximate value (AV) metric here, but in essence, it is designed to get at the value of a particular player based on their contribution to their team’s offense or defense given the number of points scored or given up by the team, the fact that there are 11 players on the field at a time per team, and the fact that different positions contribute in different ways. The metric assumes a total number of points for a team’s offense (or defense) based on how many points the team scores (or gives up) compared to an average team, and then apportions some of those points to various position groups like the offensive line, rushers, receivers, etc., and then divvies those points up to the various players on the field. It also appears to incorporate some looser elements, such as whether players made Pro Bowls, particularly for positions that lack obvious statistical metrics like offensive linemen. It is, in effect, a composite metric designed to look at a player’s overall contributions given the context of the team they play on.

Weighted career AV (wAV) is a derivative of AV, but it looks at the total AV generated by a player over the course of their career and weights things in favor of their peak performance season (100% for the player’s best season, 95% for his second best season, 90% for his third best season, and so on). The effect of the weighting basically means that player quality is based on their athletic peak, and not weighed down as much by down seasons that may be the result of injury or their eventual career decline, but it does favor players with high peaks compared to players with sustained quality play at a lower peak. For my purposes, that’s fine. Even though wAV and AV are imperfect metrics, but they are readily available and I was able to pull them for every player in the 10 year draft pool that I looked at. Perhaps in a future post I will look at other advanced metrics like individual DVOA or Pro Football Focus grades, including as a point of comparison, but for now, wAV and AV will have to do!

Anyway, because Pro Football Reference’s wAV metric already incorporates positional differences, it shouldn’t be used to reliably compare players at different positions. That’s fine, no stat can be used for everything. While baseball has metrics like wins above replacement (WAR) that are great for that type of comparison, football’s diversity of roles and stats makes it less amenable to such all-encompassing metrics, so there isn’t anything perfect available. wAV doesn’t really fill the “WAR” role, but it can be useful to compare players within a position group (QBs to QBs, for example) while also controlling, at least somewhat, for differences in quality of offenses and other players on the team. Since I wanted to compare how players drafted early in the draft compare to players drafted later in the draft at the same position, and to see whether those differences are similar or different across positions, I had to play around with the stat a bit.

Specifically, I used the draft round, position, and wAVs for the relevant positions (quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, running backs, offensive tackles, offensive guards, centers, edge rushers, defensive tackles, linebackers, cornerbacks, and safeties) to calculate the average wAV of players drafted in each round (1 through 7) by position. I used the average for each round because I wasn’t super concerned about capturing any individual player profile. If someone tells me I really ought to be looking at the median player in each round to capture an actual person, or that I ought to take the average wAV overall (rather than per season), maybe I’ll do so down the road. Also, while you would expect there to be differences in player/prospect quality at different draft slots within a particular round, the dataset I was working with probably isn’t big enough to go to that level of granularity.

Regardless, here’s what you get:

[Figure 2]

As you can see from Figure 2, on average, Round 1 picks perform better than later round picks regardless of position. But you can also see that the Round 1 wAVs are all over the place for different positions—for example, quarterbacks and running backs have relatively high Round 1 wAVs compared to cornerbacks and safeties (they all converge to zero in the later rounds, which makes sense given players drafted in the later rounds are less likely to have long, successful careers in the NFL).

That might be true, or it could simply be the result of how wAV is calculated (Pro Football Reference’s description of wAV makes clear that it is calculated differently for each position). Looking at the chart, I was skeptical that running backs were anywhere close to so valuable, so I wanted to make some adjustments to avoid simply capturing issues with the wAV metric being used. I decided to fix the starting points for each position around a consistent figure—the Round 1 average for each respective position. In other words, I set the Round 1 average to 1, and compared subsequent round averages to that figure. The effect is that QB wAVs get compared only to other QBs, edge rushers only to edge rushers, and safeties only to safeties, etc. That way, we can see how each position’s average wAV changes by round without having to worry too much about the differences in how wAV is calculated by position (it’s still baked in to an extent, but this is better).

The chart below shows the updated data, which I think is a bit clearer—it also shows the changes in player wAV by round for each position on the same scale, so cross-position comparison is more feasible.

[Figure 3]

Of course, this isn’t to suggest that all positions start off with the same round 1 value. It’s still a little messy given the 12 positions shown on one graphic, but I like Figure 3 because it lets you see how the various positions compare on a similar scale.

For convenience, to show how each position changes by round, I’ve also included individual charts for each that show the same data in slightly easier-to-see bar chart formats below (figures 4, 5, and 6).

[Figure 4]

[Figure 5]

[Figure 6]

Given this is still a small-ish data set—remember, we’re looking at 10 years of drafts and somewhere between 80 and and 324 players drafted at any given position—it’s important not to read anything too dramatic from these charts. But there are a few general things that are reflected.

Surprise, Surprise! Good Quarterbacks Go Early

The most notable thing to me is the dramatic cliff that QBs seem to hit, both after the first round and again after the second round. QBs drafted in the second round are, on average, posting career wAV totals that are 35% lower than first round quarterbacks. And QBs drafted in rounds 3-7 are basically just a crapshoot—it barely makes a difference at all which round you draft them in, chances are they won’t be good. [Special shout out to Brock Purdy for basically single-handedly propping up the 7th round QBs in this data set.].

This trend makes a ton of sense given what conventional wisdom (and Figure 1 above) says about quarterbacks: they’re disproportionately valuable, and teams will reach to draft quarterbacks in the first round.

Coupled with the fact that quarterbacks are the highest value position in terms of compensation, the obvious conclusion is that teams are correct to use early draft assets on quarterbacks if they think they can play in the league. The chances of finding someone reliable after the first round drop off markedly, and after the second round, they drop even further.

Edge Rusher Production Falls Off Quickly After Round 1

I was pretty surprised at how huge the drop-off was for edge rusher performance outside the first round. On average, second round edge rushers produce just over half the wAV of their first round counterparts (51%), a full 12 percentage points bigger of a drop off than the next closest position, defensive tackle. That was unexpected enough that I went back and looked over the full list of 44 second round edge rushers and it makes some sense at a glance. The group is headlined by a few standouts with pretty successful careers like DeMarcus Lawrence and Preston Smith, but it also has a fair number of guys who flashed for a year or two and have otherwise not been consistent like Randy Gregory. Compare that to Round 1 (52 players), which has those same types of players plus multiple truly elite players in Khalil Mack, Nick Bosa, TJ Watt, and Myles Garrett (among others), and stand-out young players like Micah Parsons, Aidan Hutchinson, and Will Anderson. It certainly seems like the studs at edge are identified quickly by teams and pounced on in the first round.

Even though there’s a decent drop off after the first round, average production doesn’t change a ton between rounds 2 to 4. This could suggest that players who obviously have high-level NFL talent get identified properly and go in the first round, but that teams aren’t as good at sussing out the next tier of player who may be missing some ideal traits or need time to develop. It could also just mean there are a lot of players with below first round talent, so they can’t all go in the second round.

Regardless, the implication is that teams probably should focus on the first round if searching for top-end pass rushers. When you factor in that edge rusher is an extremely expensive position to fill in free agency, and that teams draft a high proportion of edge rushers early in the draft, the conclusion is even stronger. That said, teams probably should still be willing to draft edge rushers in rounds 2-4 based on their production—and given what we could distill from Figure 1, that’s exactly what they seem to do.

Defensive Tackles Also Drop Off After Round 1, But There’s Solid Middle Round Talent

After edge rushers, the biggest drop-off following round 1 is for defensive tackles, where the average wAV drops 37% in round 2. Once again, this is partly due to a handful of stellar defensive tackles who’ve been drafted in the first round in the last ten years, headlined by future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald as well as Jeffery Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, and Quinnen Williams.

But unlike with edge rushers, the talent level at defensive tackle appears to level off a bit longer. For edge rushers, after a big drop off after round 1, average wAV stayed pretty flat from round 2 to round 4. For defensive tackles, the decline isn’t quite as steep initially and things don’t stay quite as even, but the average wAV in round 5 stays at over 40% of round 1 (compared to 28% for edge rushers). In other words, there has often been useful players still available in the fourth and fifth rounds in drafts, which is relatively deep.

The relatively big drop-off in production from round 1 to round 2 amongst DTs runs against how teams appear to actually draft the position (Figure 1). Teams don’t seem to prioritize drafting DTs in round 1 or round 2 compared to other positions, even though there’s a big drop-off early and it’s the 4th most valuable position in terms of salary cap spending. That suggests the potential to find good value in drafting first round defensive tackles.

Little Advantage Drafting Interior OL, LB, and Safety Round 1

The charts for offensive guard, center, linebacker, and safety are kind of interesting. What stands out is how small the apparent advantage is of drafting these positions in the first round versus the second round. For centers, guards, and safeties, you’re talking about less than a 10% drop-off in average wAV; for linebackers, the drop off is a little bigger but still relatively small at 17%. This makes some sense if you think about the relative value of these positions on the free agency market. Generally, these are positions you can fill reasonably cheaply in free agency (though that is becoming less true for offensive guards), so seems teams aren’t going after talented players at these positions in the first round. That’s backed up by the actual draft results from Figure 1, which show between 6-9% of players for these positions being drafted in the first round.

Center and safety talent also looks to stay reasonably high even through the third and fourth round. There just isn’t the same drop-off in average wAV compared to the other positions, it’s much more gradual. For centers, this might be explainable by the fact that it’s a single position, so teams don’t need to draft tons of players at the position. That explanation doesn’t make as much sense for other positions, though, like with safeties and linebackers. For those positions, it’s possible that teams have a deeper pool of players to pull from—in fact, you often see NFL safeties and linebackers come from other positions at the college level, especially players coming from FCS programs.

I suspect part of what’s happening here is that teams are doing a reasonably good job of appropriately valuing these positions. They’re easier to fill in free agency, so teams don’t want to spend their most premium assets on these positions. But after the first round, the performance curve seems to be more similar to other positions.

WR, OT, and CB—All “Lower” High Value Positions In Free Agency—Follow A Similar Pattern

It’s interesting that wide receivers, offensive tackles, and cornerbacks seem to follow a similar path in value-decline-by-draft round. Here’s the percentage of first-round average wAV for each position for rounds 2-6:

• Round 2: WR 77%; OT 76%; CB 72%

• Round 3: WR 51%; OT 56%; CB 52%

• Round 4: WR 30%; OT 36%; CB 42%

• Round 5: WR 40%; OT 35%; CB 43%

• Round 6: WR 21%; OT 21%; CB 23%

• Round 7: WR 9%; OT 24%; CB 23%

Obviously round 7 wide receivers drop completely off, so stay away from them!

I wonder if this trend is roughly what you’d expect from a “normal” high value position (quarterbacks are definitely funky, and it looks like there really is a bigger drop-off for edge rushers and defensive tackles before a slow-ish taper). It’s a relatively consistent and probably reasonable decline for each round, with some hiccups of course. The drop-off from round 1 to round 2 isn’t nearly as stark as with QBs, edge rushers, and DTs, which makes a bit more sense intuitively—it’s not as though second round picks are seen as chopped liver by teams and draft analysts, many of them are considered high-level talents that need more development early on. At the same time, there is a clear difference in average performance between the first round and second round groups at these three positions, which is what you’d expect. For guards, centers, and safeties, it’s definitely weird that there is basically no real drop-off between round 1 and round 2.

It’s also worth noting there are more wide receivers and cornerbacks drafted in the last 10 years than any other position (324 and 322 respectively). So it would make some sense that data for those positions would be less prone to noise. On the other hand, you also see teams regularly going 4 or 5 deep at these positions in games, so even late-round draft picks are probably going to see the field for meaningful time and contribute.

Gut Check With Games Played

I’m not totally convinced that Pro Football Reference’s wAV metric is all that reliable, so it’s hard to know how valuable any of the inferences above are.

As a gut check, I wanted to find some other relatively simple, easy to obtain data to at least see if the trends above make conceptual sense, beyond applying general draft trends that I’ve seen from watching the draft every year myself and reading a lot of draft coverage (a truly preposterous amount).

The easiest thing I could think of is whether the number of games actually played changes at different rates for different positions based on draft round. For example, the wAV analysis above suggests there isn’t a huge difference between centers and guards drafted in the first round versus the second round, but do first round centers and guards play a similar number of games to second rounders? If that matches the wAV trend, I’ll be more inclined to think of wAV as a useful proxy for performance when looking at draft picks by round. In addition, looking at games played has the added benefit of incorporating subjective views of NFL teams regarding how their draft picks perform, as we can assume that teams like to play good players more often (probably? I’ll disregard a couple teams perhaps…go ahead and fill in who).

Figure 7 shows the average number of games played for players drafted in rounds 1-7 by position. Figure 8 shows the same information, but as I did with Figure 3 above, I set the average number of games played by first round picks at 1 and scaled the data accordingly so you can see the different trends together (I didn’t dive into this, but some positions have longer careers than others due to the nature of football—I wanted to look at the data without worrying too much about that).

[Figure 7]

[Figure 8]

Without diving too much into the details, the rough check of wAV versus games played actually looks pretty decent for wAV. You see some of the same trends.

For example:

• There’s an enormous drop-off in average games played by quarterbacks drafted in round 2 versus round 1, and an even steeper drop-off after that. You can be pretty confident if you draft a quarterback in rounds 3 to 7 that they won’t play a lot, as they’re probably a full-time backup.

• Safeties and linebackers drafted after round 1 continue to play a relatively high number of games compared to other positions. There’s some lumpiness in the data (round 2 linebackers apparently play a lot, and round 5 safeties apparently don’t get on the field much), but it’s pretty consistent with what we saw from wAV.

• Centers also seem to play a high number of games, but there’s a weird dip for round 3. Given they’re the smallest group in terms of total numbers—only 14 centers were drafted in round 3 in the last 10 drafts—I’m not reading much into it.

• Wide receivers and cornerbacks seem to follow a common trend again, and it looks like they could be the most representative. Offensive tackles depart a bit from them, however.

Other things don’t show up:

• Edge rushers look to be following basically the same downward trend as the other positions—if you draft them later, they’re less likely to play as many games. But there isn’t a dramatic drop-off after round 1 like we saw for wAV. That doesn’t necessarily mean the trend showing up in the wAV analysis was wrong. For example, most teams play at least 3-4 edge rushers per game, so it’s possible that underperforming players still see the field enough to register. But it’s worth looking into a bit more.

• Guards appear to suffer a pretty stark drop-off in average games played after round 3. We didn’t see a similar drop-off in the wAV analysis. It could be noise? No real obvious reason jumps out to me.

Let me know what else you see.

Sign-Off

That’s it for now! Let me know if you have any observations or thoughts in the comments or by email at duncan@thesportsappeal.com. I’m happy to look into more depth on any position!

NFL Pre-Draft Thoughts: Positional Value

Happy Sunday!

The NFL Combine wrapped up this weekend, so we are fully into NFL draft season. No surprise then that I’m seeing tons of conversation about the upcoming draft in April, including mock drafts, player projections, and content about team needs. That’s awesome for people like me that want to geek out over football, and you can easily spend hours (days? weeks?) pouring over every little nuance of potential roster moves. But there’s often something missing from a lot of the content I come across, specifically the importance of positional value and the cost of alternatives.

At a high-level, positional value is pretty straight forward and people get it intuitively: setting aside the talents of individual players, some positions generally have more value to teams than others. For example, it’s axiomatic that quarterbacks are more important in football than players at other positions, and it’s almost become dogma that left tackles are critical and that running backs should never be drafted early. Those conclusions make sense in the current NFL, but they don’t always provide enough information to weigh the relative values of NFL positions in general.

So, I want to use this post to talk about a pretty simple but powerful approach I like to use for understanding how to value the various position in the draft: who do you have to pay up for in free agency? If the position is expensive (especially at the top of the market), that strongly favors drafting it early.

Every year NFL teams dole out contracts in free agency, effectively putting a price on different players at different positions. That information is the purest form of price discovery that exists in the league since the draft isn’t a free market (worse teams get better picks), trades are much harder to measure when multiple players are involved, and undrafted free agents typically sign for the minimum. Thus we can use player contracts as a strong heuristic for how valuable each position is. The overall market still dictates the replacement cost for a particular position, regardless of whether an individual team has different views of positional value. Similarly, by looking at the broader market of player contracts, we can mostly ignore differences in perception about individual talent.

This approach isn’t anything unique that I’ve come up with, and I believe most teams do something like this when coming up with organizational draft philosophy. But it’s still a really useful exercise to go through because it forces you to think how much value you gain or give up by using draft picks (especially high draft picks) on particular positions.

The Process

Let’s start with the data on NFL contracts.

Every NFL player signs a contract with compensation comprised of base salary and often bonuses. It’s pretty common for NFL contracts include an upfront signing bonus (paid immediately) on top of base salaries (paid out weekly over each season of the contract) and future bonuses, too. Although some players—largely starters—get a portion of their future salary/bonus compensation guaranteed, typically NFL teams can release a player and avoid paying them future amounts. That means that assessing the “value” of an NFL contract can be a bit tricky.

To get around the valuation problem, I want to look at a couple different ways to value NFL contracts. The first is to look at the average annual value (AAV) of each contract—basically the total compensation divided by the number of years called for in the contract. The second is to look at the total guarantees in a contract. Looking at AAVs is the easiest short-hand, but I want to make sure there isn’t something totally unusual happening with guarantees (for example, some positions getting guarantees and others not). Plus, Overthecap and Spotrac have this kind of information readily available and I’m all about convenience.

Using data from Overthecap, I pulled together a list of all players league-wide under contract as of February 26, 2024 by position. I used positional groupings from Overthecap, too, except I excluded positions that aren’t common to all teams (fullbacks) or are purely for special teams (kickers, punters, etc.). The groups are as follows:

• Offense:

  • Quarterbacks

  • Running backs

  • Wide receivers

  • Tight ends

  • Left tackles

  • Right tackles

  • Left guards

  • Right guards

  • Centers

• Defense:

  • Interior defensive linemen

  • Edge rushers

  • Linebackers (excluding 3-4 outside linebackers)

  • Cornerbacks

  • Safeties

[The positional grouping for each player can be debated sometimes, particularly for positions like left vs. right side on the offensive line or between interior defensive linemen and edge rushers. I looked over how Overthecap grouped them and it seemed reasonable to me, though, so I didn’t dwell on it.].

The compensation data for the position groupings we care about covers 2,296 players (it’s available here, or you can email me if you want a copy of the spreadsheet I pulled the data into).

Looking at the data as a whole, it jumps out right away that the NFL pays top-tier players well and the lower-end players very little. At the high end, 19 players have contracts with AAVs of $30 million or more. On the other end of the spectrum, the vast majority of players—over 70%—are on contracts with AAVs under $2 million (for reference, the league minimum for 2024 ranges from $795,000 to $1.21 million depending on seniority); about the same number have less than $2 million in salary guarantees, too.

This disparity makes some sense once you consider that NFL teams have 53-man rosters (plus practice squads) and there is a distinct need to employ backups, special teamers, and injury replacements.

Practically speaking, it also means that at the bottom end of the pay scale, it’s basically impossible to draw meaningful conclusions about positional value because all the contracts start collapsing toward the league minimum salary. To avoid that issue, I’ve basically ignored lower-end contracts for purposes of this article (trust me, it doesn’t make a difference).

I also want to quickly point out that obviously not all positions are the same in terms of how many players you need to play them. Only 32 quarterbacks can start in the NFL, but most teams effectively “start” three wide receivers, two or three cornerbacks, two or three linebackers, two safeties, two edges, and two interior defensive linemen. That obviously has a material impact on the market—there are more wide receivers and cornerbacks that actually play than there are quarterbacks (before accounting for backups). That reality should be priced into player salaries, but it’s worth keeping in mind.

Where Does the Money Go?

The chart below shows averages of the Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, and Top 50 highest AAVs by position. As a cautionary note, these aren’t perfectly apples to apples comparisons for the top 50 column in particular, as there are different numbers of players at different positions.

[Figure 1]

The next chart shows the average total guarantees by position for the same groups (Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, and Top 50).

[Figure 2]

Something leaps out immediately: Quarterbacks are crazy valuable!

That’s not really a surprise to anyone. In fact, they’re so valuable that they distract from what’s going on with the other positions. So let’s take as true that quarterback is the most valuable position in football (at least based on how NFL teams pay them) and take it out of consideration for now.

We can re-work the chart to exclude quarterbacks—here’s the same data without quarterbacks shown:

[Figure 3]

And here’s a line graph based on the same data (rounded), which makes it a bit easier to compare the positions against one another generally. I find the line graph a little misleading, but it’s a useful way to compare the positions at the different levels of extraction (top 5 to top 50).

[Figure 4]

Figures 5 and 6 are similar to Figures 3 and 4, but but by Total Guarantees:

[Figure 5]

[Figure 6]

These charts (Figures 3 to 6) are a bit easier to follow without quarterbacks mucking things up with their giant contracts.

I'm also including a table with the rounded dollar figures in millions (Figure 7) so they’re easier to see—you’re welcome to trace the bar charts if you like.

[Figure 7]

Alright, that’s out of the way.

This information is helpful to rank positions by value.

When looking at position AAVs, a pretty clear ranking shows up at the top of the market (top 5 and top 10):

1. Edge rushers

2. Wide receivers

3. Interior defensive line

4. Left tackles

5. Cornerbacks

6. Right tackles

7. Linebackers (T-7)

8. Safeties (T-7)

9. Tight ends (T-9)

10. Right guards (T-9)

11. Left guards (T-9)

12. Running backs

13. Centers

But if you look at top-market total guarantees, another order pops up—I’ve put in bold red text the positions that moved down and bold green text the positions that moved up relative to the AAV order:

1. Edge rushers (massive advantage over every other non-QB position)

2. Wide receivers

3. Cornerbacks

4. Interior defensive line

5. Left tackles

6. Right tackles

7. Linebackers

8. Safeties (T-8)

9. Tight ends (T-8)

10. Left guard

11. Right guard

12. Centers

13. Running backs

These generally rankings seem to generally stay roughly the same even as you expand to bigger shares of the market (top 30 and top 50 players at each position), but it’s again worth noting that the number of players that actually see the field for a given position (without injuries) starts to have a bigger impact once you get past the top 20-30 players at the position. This is most apparent with cornerbacks passing left tackles for AAV at the top 30—assuming health, only 32 left tackles start league-wide on any given Sunday, whereas you’re going to see at least 64 cornerbacks play each week (and probably closer to 96, since almost every team plays a lot of nickel defense at least). That same thing probably also explains why right guards, left guards, and centers all start to lump together after the top 20—at a certain point, you’re talking about replacement-level starters or backups at relatively low cost positions.

I was also curious and looked at the same AAV and total guarantees compensation data for each position sorted by the percentile ranking within the position itself. The data here isn’t averaged out by top 5, top 10, etc., it’s just the straight data. I also took out anything below the 75th percentile as the compensation starts to veer off toward the league minimum and just collapses on itself. I think it tells a pretty similar story, but I’ll post it anyway so folks can see (Figures 8 and 9 below). The major caveat here is that the number of players at each position has a HUGE impact on the bar charts below—offensive line at every level looks way more expensive, but that’s because there are the fewest players under contract at those positions. The data set I have covers 94 left tackles, 99 right tackles, 93 left guards, 77 right guards, and 70 centers, while there are 307 wide receivers, 277 cornerbacks, 234 interior defensive linemen, 231 edge rushers, 219 linebackers, 182 safeties, 159 running backs, and 153 tight ends. It skews the percentile comparisons a lot. For example the 75th percentile center is #18 in the league, whereas a 75th percentile wide receiver is #77. Take these with a grain of salt.

[Figure 8]

[Figure 9]

Lessons for Drafting

So let’s get to some lessons we can draw from the information above about the draft.

Edges and wide receivers are ideal early draft targets.

Excluding quarterbacks, the top edge rushers and wide receivers get more money per year on average than anyone else and get the most in guarantees. That premium cost shows up at the top end of the market clearly, but it continues even as you move downward. These are obviously high-value positions in the modern NFL, where the passing game is so important, but the substantial distance between their average pay and guarantees compared to other premium positions like cornerback and left tackle is pretty apparent, especially at the very top of the market.

The value of finding high-end talent at these positions in the draft is absolutely massive. First round rookies get signed to 4 year deals with a 5th year team option, so locking in All-Pro level talent with a first round pick at edge rusher or wide receiver can create a huge amount of surplus value to the team compared to getting the same level of talent at other positions.

I also want to flag something that came up as a bit of a surprise to me. Edge rushers get absolutely massive total guarantees in the veteran market compared to every other non-QB position (even wide receivers). If you look at Figures 5 and 6, it jumps out immediately—they’re getting $30 million or more in guarantees than any other position. While edge rushers may only make a couple million more per year than wide receivers at the high end of the market, that difference in guarantees actually is a major, major difference for teams who need to worry about the risk of injury.

If you assume (as I do) that over time and on average, higher draft picks are more likely to end up being high-end NFL players, there’s no doubt that focusing on edge rusher and wide receiver for team’s premium draft assets (first round and second round picks) is a good bet.

On top of that, from a practical perspective, every team has to have at least three capable wide receivers and edge rushers. Offenses frequently run 3 WR sets and edge rushers really can’t stay on the field the entire game no matter how good they are. So even if you don’t get a player who turns out to be a top-of-market talent, landing guys who can play even at a back-end starter level has incredible financial value.

Don’t Forget the Beef (At Least On Defense)

You never hear anyone talk about defensive tackles as a premium position, pretty much ever. Occasionally, reporters and prognosticators will talk about how a couple interior D-linemen like Aaron Donald, Chris Jones, or Quinnen Williams are valuable because they can pass rush like ends, but that’s really understating things hugely. Even guys who are thought of more often as space eaters like Dalvin Tomlinson and DJ Reader are making $13-14 million per season on average. In fact, at every level of the market, defensive tackles are getting paid more than offensive tackles (left or right side) and corners, which isn’t the prevailing wisdom amongst pundits and draft watchers.

Also, like with edges and wide receivers, most teams have to regularly play three or more defensive tackles every game. These guys are big and asked to do a lot athletically—they need breathers, more than most positions. Having extras makes sense. And even if a defensive tackle doesn’t turn out to be an All Pro, having a top 50 player at the position is more valuable than getting a comparably talented offensive lineman, who will inevitably be a backup.

Be Cautious Drafting Right Tackles Early

The whole league values left tackles more than right tackles, since they’re the blindside protectors for right handed quarterbacks (though obviously there are a number of lefties in the NFL now like Tua Tagovailoa), so it’s no surprise that LTs are generally paid more than RTs per year. But I was surprised by how much of a gap shows up at the middle- and lower-end of the market for starters.

Amongst the top 10 players at each position, left tackles are paid on average about 13% more than right tackles. But that gap widens substantially when you look at the top 20 and top 30 at each position, where the pay difference is about 26% and 25% respectively. Using a high pick on a right tackle can be fine (it’s about middle of the pack in terms of positional value) if you end up with a high-end starter, but if you end up with a back-end starter it’s a lot less efficient financially that drafting a left tackle.

Common Wisdom Is Sometimes Spot On

Football followers all know this by now, but the league does not value running backs. The league’s highest paid (and presumably best) running backs are getting paid comparably to the 50th best edge rushers and wide receivers, or the 30th best corners and left tackles. Forget whether it’s true that you can find running backs late in the draft—simply paying for a running back in free agency is a cheap alternative to drafting one early. The opportunity cost of using early picks on running backs is far too high to justify in most situations. You’d have to believe that a given running back you draft will be a top 5 player at his position versus believing that an edge rusher you draft would be a top 50 player for it to make any sense.

Teams Seem to Know Centers Are Cheap, But Does Anyone Else?

I keep seeing mock drafts putting multiple centers in the first two rounds—usually Jackson Powers-Johnson from Oregon, Graham Barton from Duke, and Zach Frazier from West Virginia. That’s not a good use of draft capital, as centers are one of the easiest positions to fill in the open market, where a starting caliber player (top 20) is actually cheaper than even running backs. I never hear analysts talk about this, but it’s a useful lesson. DON’T WASTE EARLY PICKS!

A similar thing can be said for guards even though the top of the market is more robust. If a team thinks a guard will be a top 5 player at his position, it could be worth using early draft capital on him—any other outcome, and it’s similar to drafting a running back or center. It’s not a good position to use early draft capital on.

Safeties, Tight Ends, and Linebackers Are Fine, I Guess?

Perhaps the least interesting groups here are safeties, tight ends, and linebackers. Their comp seems to track each other reasonably closely and they land pretty squarely in the middle of the value stack. As a result, drafting them early isn’t the highest use of resources, but it’s not as inefficient as drafting RBs or interior offensive lineman like guards and centers. The “best case” outcomes really pale in comparison to edges, wide receivers, interior DL, and left tackles in terms of potential value though, so it’s probably best to avoid using first round picks on these positions even if you think the player is going to be great—just pay somebody in free agency instead.

Wrap Up

I really like looking at positional drafting based on market cost. It’s simple, intuitive, and reflects the real world value of the position. Teams always have the option of filling roster holes with free agency instead of the draft, so they ought to be thinking about how much it costs to do so when evaluating picks. Of course there are other interesting ways at looking at positional value (Pro Football Focus has a fun one looking at their wins above average stat), but most of them tend to rely on imperfect comparisons that may not reflect what’s actually happening in the league, so I tend to put less weight on them. And while obviously teams need to think about things like draft slot and their own roster, scheme, and strategy—those are important!—they always have to live by the rules of the market they exist in, since roster needs change, coaches get fired, and prevailing wisdom changes. Looking to the alternative cost of filling roster holes, besides draft picks, is a good place to start.

Say Goodbye to Justin Fields?

As the NFL regular season looks to wrap up this weekend, many team front offices are turning to future planning. While I’m excited to see what the playoffs have in store, with the Chargers out of playoff contention, I’ll admit that I’ve started thinking about next year too. Mostly I’ve been dreaming up ways the Bolts can fix their cap situation and knock out the upcoming 2024 draft.

But I keep thinking about a fun question: what the heck are the Chicago Bears going to do with quarterback Justin Fields?

[Obviously, this question has popped into my head totally organically . . . I’m not at all influenced by the hundreds of daily takes on Fields . . . ]

Fields’ Prospects Are Hard to Pin Down

Everybody who watches football seems to be talking about Fields and his future with the Bears. Hot takes abound on Fields future prospects, and deservedly so. He’s got a perfect resume for priming debate.

Coming into the NFL, Fields was a tantalizing prospect that inspired a lot of discussion. Fields’ pedigree was unimpeachable. A former five-star high school recruit, Fields started for two exceptional seasons at “The” Ohio State (one shortened by COVID). He went 20-2 as a starter for the Buckeyes and led them to two college football playoff appearances, throwing for over 5300 yards with 63 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. And in the first round of the 2020 college football playoff, he completely dominated a Clemson team headlined by Trevor Lawrence.

But the strong performance against Clemson was book-ended by Fields getting shut down by a good Northwestern team (weird, I know) and Ohio State getting flattened by Alabama in the National Title game, where Fields was ineffective. Those results were stunning given the Buckeyes had FOUR future NFL first round wide receivers on the roster in Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba.

Folks justifiably wondered who was driving the bus for Ohio State, Fields or the receivers? Despite stellar athleticism (Fields is just under 6’3”, nearly 230 pounds, and runs a 4.46 second 40) and unquestionable arm talent, that question ultimately pushed Fields down draft boards. Although the Bears drafted him early at #11 overall, he was just the fourth quarterback selected in the 2021 draft behind Lawrence, #1 to the Jags; Zach Wilson, #2 to the Jets; and Trey Lance, #3 to the Niners—Mac Jones was drafted shortly after Fields at #15 by the Patriots.

Three years into his NFL career, it’s hard to say that Fields has settled questions about whether he can be a franchise quarterback.

• The record is unquestionably poor, as the Bears have gone 10-27 with Fields as the starter. Obviously, this isn’t attributable to Fields alone, but he has struggled to find wins.

• Fields’ counting stats as a passer have also been middling at best. He completes just over 60% of his passes and he averages just over 167 yards per game through the air (up to 201.2 this year, benefitting from the Bears finally adding a true WR1 in DJ Moore). He’s also thrown just 40 touchdowns in 37 starts, while throwing 30 picks, taking an astounding 130 sacks, and fumbling 38 times. The only thing keeping Fields’ traditional statistical profile palatable is his rushing, where he’s proven to be effective by rushing for 56.2 yards per game on an average of 6.3 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns. Added all up, Fields has posted paltry QBRs of 31.4, 56.3, and 46.3 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively.

• Qualitative metrics like PFF grades are similarly unkind to Fields as a passer. This season, amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks, Fields’ 67.6 grade as a passer puts him as PFF’s 25th ranked passer, behind QBs like Joe Flacco, Jake Browning, Tyrod Taylor, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Even accounting for Fields’ strong rushing ability, Fields still only rates as PFF’s 21st ranked QB. 2021 and 2022 weren’t better, as Fields rated 31st and and 43rd respectively amongst passers with over 100 dropbacks.

• Other advanced stats for Fields paint a mixed picture. Fields sports a league-leading 3.23 seconds to throw per NFL Next Gen Stats, which jives with his penchant for for taking sacks. To be fair, Fields does try to push the ball down field, with an average depth of target of 8.8 yards per PFF, similar to players like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence—and to his credit, Fields does well on deep throws. This year, he’s averaging 12.7 yards per attempt with a 96.1 grade on throws 20+ yards down field per PFF.

Highlighting the points above is not to suggest Fields is bad at football or that he will never be successful in the NFL. Fields often mixes great plays and terrible ones, so it’s certainly possible that he can clean things up, limit the bad plays, and eventually come into his own. There’s no question he has the physical tools and pedigree to be a starter in the NFL. But at the end of the day, nobody really knows whether he will develop enough. That’s one of the biggest issues with his career in the league so far: he’s had almost 40 starts, and it’s not clear how much progress he’s made, even though it is clear his progress has been slower than the Bears had hoped.

Let’s look at the contract situation.

Regardless of whether Fields makes a leap, shows slight improvement, or takes a step backward in 2024, he’s about to get expensive. Fields is under contract next season but the Bears have to decide whether to pick up his fifth year option for 2025 this spring. If they do pick up the 5th year option, Fields will carry a cap hit of around $22 million in 2025, as projected by Over the Cap.

Assuming Fields plays well next year, to re-sign him beyond 2025, the Bears will have to open the checkbook—the Bears will probably need to pay Fields upwards of $40 million (and possibly substantially more) per year to extend him. I’m basing this off of recent QB contracts, whose value seems to rise with every passing year. In 2023, young stars Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts signed deals worth over $50 million a year in average annual value (AAV). Fields doesn’t have the resume of this group, even if he has the pedigree. But keep in mind, last year also gave us contracts where Daniel Jones signed for 4 years at an AAV of $40 million per year this year and Derek Carr signed for 4 years at an AAV of $37.5 million. These contracts represent the floor of what Fields might reasonably seek in a new deal.

The salary cap for 2025 hasn’t been determined (it’s based off a percentage of league revenues), but it’s estimated to be around $260 million in 2025 and $284 million in 2026. That means that by 2026, Fields would be getting paid about 17.5% of the Bears overall cap, on par with the top QBs in the NFL (it would be 8.5% in 2025).

To justify that kind of salary outlay without hamstringing the team, Fields can’t just be a starting caliber QB, he has to be capable of carrying the team for stretches. While not a perfect comparison, consider the kinds of contract AAVs paid out to top-tier players at other key positions. The top 10 wide receiver contracts in the NFL have AAVs between $20-30 million; the top 10 left tackle AAVs range between $17-25 million; the top 10 edge rushers AAVs range between $21-34 million; and the top 10 cornerback AAVs range between $14.8-21 million. Talented players are available every year in free agency, and the Bears would be forced to forgo signing multiple top tier players at other positions in order to keep Fields—which makes sense if he’s a high-end starter, but not for midlevel quarterback play.

To their credit, the Bears do have a relatively clean cap situation in the next few years, even assuming they re-sign star corner Jaylon Johnson to a market deal this off-season. Johnson (presumably), DJ Moore, Montez Sweat, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis, and Cole Kmet are the only players with cap hits over $10 million in 2024 and 2025, and the Bears could move on from several of those contracts early if needed. So they could survive over-paying Fields if he doesn’t turn into a top-flight starter—which at least gives them the option of keeping him while protecting against downside scenarios.

The Draft Picture

As a result of last year’s pre-draft trade with the Panthers, the Bears have the #1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. In any year, this would be an incredibly valuable pick, but that is especially true this year, where two quarterbacks are widely viewed as potential top-flight NFL straters. I won’t go into a detailed prospect analysis here, but Caleb Williams has been compared to the highest graded draft picks at quarterback this century (Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence), and even still, there are many draft prognosticators that would pick Drake Maye first. Suffice it to say, these are top-flight QB prospects.

The Bears also have their own first and third through seventh round picks plus a fourth round pick from Philadelphia, so they have a few opportunities to try to snag high-end talent in Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft while filing out the back of their roster with Day 3 picks.

There are essentially two ways to supplement their picks.

Option 1: Take a QB at #1 and Trade Fields

One option is to trade Fields, as at least nine other teams appear to have uncertainty at quarterback (the Commanders, Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Raiders, Broncos, and Steelers). Some teams will find a future quarterback in this year’s draft—in addition to Williams and Maye, LSU’s Jayden McDaniels, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, and Oregon’s Bo Nix all project to be drafted in the first two rounds—and veteran options like Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, and the quarterback formerly known as Ryan Tannehill will likely become available.

Even if all eight of those players (the five rookies and three vets) start next year, that would still leave two teams without a solution at quarterback—so Fields will have a market. At just 25 years old next year, just one year older than Penix and Nix, and with multiple potential suitors, the Bears should be able to get second round pick value back for Fields—if they’re lucky, perhaps even first round value.

Option 2: Trade the #1 Overall Pick

A second option is to trade the #1 pick in this year’s draft in the hopes of building around Fields. Given the talent at the top of the draft and number of QB-needy teams, the Bears should be able to get solid return. In the last twenty years, teams have traded into the top 10 to get a quarterback just 13 times:

• In 2021, the Niners traded up to pick #3 to select Trey Lance and gave up the #12 pick, a first and third round pick in 2022 (#29 and #101 overall), and a first round pick in 2023 (#29). The Bears also traded up to get Justin Fields, giving up the #20 pick, a fifth round pick (#164), and a future first and fourth round pick to move up to #11 to select Fields.

• In 2018, there were three trade ups for first round QBs. The Jets traded up to pick Sam Darnold at #3 overall, giving up their first rounder (#6), two second rounders (#37 and #49), and a 2019 second rounder to do so. The Bills also traded up to pick Josh Allen, trading the #12 pick and two second rounders (#53 and #56) for the #7 pick (used to take Allen) and a 7th round pick (#255). And the Cardinals moved up to pick #10 to select Josh Rosen, trading picks #15, #79, and #152 in exchange.

• In 2017, the Bears traded up to #2 to pick Mitch Trubisky and gave up the #3 pick, third (#67) and fourth round (#111), and a 2018 third rounder, but the unquestionably better deal was for the Chiefs to trade up to #10 to select Patrick Mahomes in exchange for #27, #91, and a 2018 first rounder.

• In 2016, the Rams traded #15, two seconds (#43 and #45), a third (#76), and 2017 first and third round picks to move up to #1 for Jared Goff (the Rams also got a fourth and sixth round pick in the deal). The Eagles also moved up to select Carson Wentz, receiving the #2 overall pick and a 2017 fourth rounder in exchange for the #8, #77, and #100 picks, plus a 2017 first rounder and a 2018 second rounder.

• In 2012, the then Redskins traded their first and second round picks (#6 and #39) plus 2013 and 2014 first round picks to the Rams for #2 overall to select Robert Griffin III.

• In 2011, the Jaguars traded #16 and #49 to move up to #10 to select Blaine Gabbert.

• In 2009, the Jets traded their #17 and #52 picks and three players to move up to #5 to select Mark Sanchez.

• In 2004, the Giants and Chargers made a trade of quarterbacks selected in the draft that year. The Chargers sent Eli Manning (picked #1 overall by the Chargers) to the Giants in exchange for Phillip Rivers (picked #4 overall by the Giants), a third round pick (#65), and first and fifth round picks in 2005.

These trades seem to rarely work out for the team trading up, and the return for moving up to draft QBs seems to have diminished some in recent years (although most years have not had quarterbacks as highly anticipated as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye). Regardless, the Bears can fairly expect to get back at least two (possibly 3) first round picks and additional Day 2 draft capital in exchange for moving back in the 2024 draft, depending on how far back they want to go.

Option #3: Keep the #1 Pick and Take the Best Non-QB

This option is pretty crazy, so I’m not going to spend much time on it. Lots of Bears fans seem to want to keep Fields and select Marvin Harrison Jr. at #1 overall. That’s CRAZY. At the very least, you need to trade the pick to get draft capital back from Washington or New England, picking at #2 and #3 respectively, or even the Giants at #5 or Falcons at #9. There are also really high-end receivers other than Harrison Jr. at the top end of this draft—notably LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze. Even if the Bears had to trade down to trade back up to pick one of the top WRs (a form of Option #2). The Bears also have some need at tackle, which is in the same boat with multiple high-end prospects likely to go in the first half of the first round.

So what should the Bears do?

Despite the hand-wringing, I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard.

The Bears should move on from Fields and draft a QB at #1 this year.

Top-flight QBs Show Themselves Early, Fields Hasn’t

Regardless of whether the Bears see the glass as half full or half empty with respect to Justin Fields’ development, the hard truth is that he still has to develop substantially to get to even league-average play for a quarterback as a passer. Fields’ potential is obvious, and I have no reason to doubt that he will continue to work on his craft, as any franchise player should. At the same time, there are almost no examples of quarterbacks “figuring it out” after three years as a starter, which Fields has already had.

There have been 69 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2000. Of those QBs, 30 (43.5%) have made at least one Pro Bowl, an admittedly flawed way to look at whether QBs were good over the years, without relying too heavily on counting stats that vary by era. Only 18 (26.1%) have made multiple Pro Bowls (five of the 30 QBs with one appearance are in their fourth year or younger, so they haven’t had many chances).

Moreover, of the 30 QBs who made a Pro Bowl, almost all of them did so within their first three years as an NFL starter—24 of 30, or 80%. Most of the exceptions performed well early too: three made their first Pro Bowl in their fourth season (Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tua Tagovailoa), which Fields could do but likely will not. The other exceptions are Matt Stafford—who barely missed a Pro Bowl in his third season despite throwing for over 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns in an obvious franchise QB year—and Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill. While Smith and Tannehill became effective players, neither had the type of career that the Bears could reasonably hope for from Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, or even what they might aspire to for Fields.

In other words, we generally know early whether a first round QB is going to be good or not. After year three, no one really disputes that Fields’ trajectory is still unknown.

Top 5 Picks Like Williams and Maye Hit More Often

Conversely, the likelihood that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye go on to make a Pro Bowl (or multiple Pro Bowls) is higher based on their expected pedigree. Setting aside that Williams in particular is seen as a transcendent draft prospect, QBs picked in the top 5 are much more likely to be Pro Bowl caliber players than first round QBs in general. Again since 2000, 33 quarterbacks have been taken with a top 5 pick—19 (57.6%) have made at least one Pro Bowl and 12 (36.4%) have made two or more (five of these 33 QBs are still in their fourth year or younger). The 36 QBs picked outside the top 5 (like Fields) have made a Pro Bowl at just 30.6% clip and multiple Pro Bowls at just a 16.7% rate.

Even if the Bears like Fields, there’s a good reason to expect that Williams or Maye will outperform him. The Bears front office and GM Ryan Poles already appear to have passed on one (maybe more) franchise quarterbacks in the 2022 by trading the #1 overall pick last year. If Fields doesn’t hit, passing on another potential franchise quarterback in 2023 is the kind of thing that gets GMs fired quickly.

Resetting the QB Contract Clock Is Hugely Valuable

As discussed above, even if Fields continues to make marginal progress, he is likely to be paid upwards of $40 million per season in just three years (2026). While they won’t be locked in, effectively the Bears will have to make a costly decision on Fields this Spring to secure the fifth year option and decide whether to re-sign him long term after the 2024 season. That isn’t a lot of time to decide whether Fields is in fact the guy long-term. If they keep Fields, the Bears will be forced to make a decision soon on whether to tether themselves financially to him long-term.

Drafting a quarterback puts off that timeline for an additional three years, as Williams or Maye would be under team control—and at relatively low dollars—until 2029. Franchise QBs on rookie deals, with up to five years of team cost control, is the holy grail of roster construction. Landing one can cover up a lot of holes and misses in other areas. That possibility is already gone with Fields, but Williams and Maye keep that scenario very much alive. Trading Fields and hitting on Williams or Maye would mean the Bears can comfortably re-sign talent they’ve already accumulated like Jaylon Johnson, sign one or two top tier free agents at key positions or make several smaller free agent acquisitions, and take the appropriate time to build their roster, without having to worry about a pending quarterback contract renewal. Coupled with the fact that we all expect Williams and Maye to be good, that flexibility is enormous.

More Draft Capital from Trading the #1 Pick Isn’t Enough

Optimistically, the Bears can hope to get more than three first round picks worth of value back for the #1 overall pick this year. That’s strong value and worth considering.

But even though the Bears appear to have “won” last year’s trade with the Panthers, where they made a similar move to trade off of the #1 overall pick in 2023, they’ve had some good fortune in the form of Carolina’s incredible 2023 collapse. By making the trade, the Bears missed out on apparent franchise QB CJ Stroud, a tantalizing prospect in Anthony Richardson, and high-end pass rusher Will Anderson Jr (and of course, Bryce Young). And nobody counted on the Panthers falling apart so spectacularly, dropping to 2-14 (so far) from 7-10 last year, which catapulted the value of the future first and second round picks the Bears got back in the deal.

The quality of the picks the Bears get back would matter quite a bit. They would be moving down this year at least, and because nobody other than the Cardinals has multiple first rounders this year, the Bears would have to get back future firsts. Those future picks cannot be assumed to be at the high end of the first round in 2025 or beyond—we don’t know who the trade partner would be, and we can’t know whether their 2024 performance would result in a high-end pick rather than a pick in the #10-15 range (even if the team is bad).

At the same time, given the number of teams searching for quarterbacks is again likely to exceed the number of quarterbacks available through the draft, free agency, and trade, there’s doubtless going to be a reasonable market for Fields. Dealing Fields, especially after his recent string of play, is likely to result in the Bears getting back solid pick value too—at best a first round pick from a team eager to compete in 2024 and in need of a QB like Atlanta or Pittsburgh, or more likely a second round pick from another suitor. This would leave the Bears without two future firsts draft capital (probably a little less), but that’s a more than reasonable price to pay for three years of additional financial flexibility and to have as good of a chance, or better, at finding a franchise cornerstone.

Top 5 Picks Are Hard to Come By!

42 years ago, the Bears selected Jim McMahon at #5 overall in the 1982 NFL draft—the last good Bears quarterback according to many Bears fans (most notably Michael Wilbon). Since then, the Bears have had top five picks in just three times, selecting Curtis Enis in 1998, Cedric Benson in 2005, and trading up (as discussed above) to pick Mitch Trubisky in 2017. Even this year, despite struggling for much of the season, the Bears are currently expected to pick 10th.

The chance to draft quarterbacks as talented as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye is rare for the Bears, especially without trading up. This isn’t an opportunity that is likely to repeat itself anytime soon.

Moving On Ain’t Easy

If the Bears do move and draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye at #1 this April, Justin Fields’ story as an NFL quarterback isn’t over. The Bears and their fans will inevitably watch his progress and compare him to their next quarterback. That’s FINE, and appropriate, and it would happen the other direction all the same. All fans—and most people, even in front offices—play the “what if” game. But given the cost of paying Fields, and the opportunity the Bears would forgo (again) by passing on this year’s elite quarterback prospects, is too high to be offset by the draft picks the Bears would get back by trading the 2024 #1 pick.