Say Goodbye to Justin Fields?
As the NFL regular season looks to wrap up this weekend, many team front offices are turning to future planning. While I’m excited to see what the playoffs have in store, with the Chargers out of playoff contention, I’ll admit that I’ve started thinking about next year too. Mostly I’ve been dreaming up ways the Bolts can fix their cap situation and knock out the upcoming 2024 draft.
But I keep thinking about a fun question: what the heck are the Chicago Bears going to do with quarterback Justin Fields?
[Obviously, this question has popped into my head totally organically . . . I’m not at all influenced by the hundreds of daily takes on Fields . . . ]
Fields’ Prospects Are Hard to Pin Down
Everybody who watches football seems to be talking about Fields and his future with the Bears. Hot takes abound on Fields future prospects, and deservedly so. He’s got a perfect resume for priming debate.
Coming into the NFL, Fields was a tantalizing prospect that inspired a lot of discussion. Fields’ pedigree was unimpeachable. A former five-star high school recruit, Fields started for two exceptional seasons at “The” Ohio State (one shortened by COVID). He went 20-2 as a starter for the Buckeyes and led them to two college football playoff appearances, throwing for over 5300 yards with 63 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. And in the first round of the 2020 college football playoff, he completely dominated a Clemson team headlined by Trevor Lawrence.
But the strong performance against Clemson was book-ended by Fields getting shut down by a good Northwestern team (weird, I know) and Ohio State getting flattened by Alabama in the National Title game, where Fields was ineffective. Those results were stunning given the Buckeyes had FOUR future NFL first round wide receivers on the roster in Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba.
Folks justifiably wondered who was driving the bus for Ohio State, Fields or the receivers? Despite stellar athleticism (Fields is just under 6’3”, nearly 230 pounds, and runs a 4.46 second 40) and unquestionable arm talent, that question ultimately pushed Fields down draft boards. Although the Bears drafted him early at #11 overall, he was just the fourth quarterback selected in the 2021 draft behind Lawrence, #1 to the Jags; Zach Wilson, #2 to the Jets; and Trey Lance, #3 to the Niners—Mac Jones was drafted shortly after Fields at #15 by the Patriots.
Three years into his NFL career, it’s hard to say that Fields has settled questions about whether he can be a franchise quarterback.
The record is unquestionably poor, as the Bears have gone 10-27 with Fields as the starter. Obviously, this isn’t attributable to Fields alone, but he has struggled to find wins.
Fields’ counting stats as a passer have also been middling at best. He completes just over 60% of his passes and he averages just over 167 yards per game through the air (up to 201.2 this year, benefitting from the Bears finally adding a true WR1 in DJ Moore). He’s also thrown just 40 touchdowns in 37 starts, while throwing 30 picks, taking an astounding 130 sacks, and fumbling 38 times. The only thing keeping Fields’ traditional statistical profile palatable is his rushing, where he’s proven to be effective by rushing for 56.2 yards per game on an average of 6.3 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns. Added all up, Fields has posted paltry QBRs of 31.4, 56.3, and 46.3 in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively.
Qualitative metrics like PFF grades are similarly unkind to Fields as a passer. This season, amongst QBs with 100+ dropbacks, Fields’ 67.6 grade as a passer puts him as PFF’s 25th ranked passer, behind QBs like Joe Flacco, Jake Browning, Tyrod Taylor, Kenny Pickett, and Ryan Tannehill. Even accounting for Fields’ strong rushing ability, Fields still only rates as PFF’s 21st ranked QB. 2021 and 2022 weren’t better, as Fields rated 31st and and 43rd respectively amongst passers with over 100 dropbacks.
Other advanced stats for Fields paint a mixed picture. Fields sports a league-leading 3.23 seconds to throw per NFL Next Gen Stats, which jives with his penchant for for taking sacks. To be fair, Fields does try to push the ball down field, with an average depth of target of 8.8 yards per PFF, similar to players like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence—and to his credit, Fields does well on deep throws. This year, he’s averaging 12.7 yards per attempt with a 96.1 grade on throws 20+ yards down field per PFF.
Highlighting the points above is not to suggest Fields is bad at football or that he will never be successful in the NFL. Fields often mixes great plays and terrible ones, so it’s certainly possible that he can clean things up, limit the bad plays, and eventually come into his own. There’s no question he has the physical tools and pedigree to be a starter in the NFL. But at the end of the day, nobody really knows whether he will develop enough. That’s one of the biggest issues with his career in the league so far: he’s had almost 40 starts, and it’s not clear how much progress he’s made, even though it is clear his progress has been slower than the Bears had hoped.
Let’s look at the contract situation.
Regardless of whether Fields makes a leap, shows slight improvement, or takes a step backward in 2024, he’s about to get expensive. Fields is under contract next season but the Bears have to decide whether to pick up his fifth year option for 2025 this spring. If they do pick up the 5th year option, Fields will carry a cap hit of around $22 million in 2025, as projected by Over the Cap.
Assuming Fields plays well next year, to re-sign him beyond 2025, the Bears will have to open the checkbook—the Bears will probably need to pay Fields upwards of $40 million (and possibly substantially more) per year to extend him. I’m basing this off of recent QB contracts, whose value seems to rise with every passing year. In 2023, young stars Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts signed deals worth over $50 million a year in average annual value (AAV). Fields doesn’t have the resume of this group, even if he has the pedigree. But keep in mind, last year also gave us contracts where Daniel Jones signed for 4 years at an AAV of $40 million per year this year and Derek Carr signed for 4 years at an AAV of $37.5 million. These contracts represent the floor of what Fields might reasonably seek in a new deal.
The salary cap for 2025 hasn’t been determined (it’s based off a percentage of league revenues), but it’s estimated to be around $260 million in 2025 and $284 million in 2026. That means that by 2026, Fields would be getting paid about 17.5% of the Bears overall cap, on par with the top QBs in the NFL (it would be 8.5% in 2025).
To justify that kind of salary outlay without hamstringing the team, Fields can’t just be a starting caliber QB, he has to be capable of carrying the team for stretches. While not a perfect comparison, consider the kinds of contract AAVs paid out to top-tier players at other key positions. The top 10 wide receiver contracts in the NFL have AAVs between $20-30 million; the top 10 left tackle AAVs range between $17-25 million; the top 10 edge rushers AAVs range between $21-34 million; and the top 10 cornerback AAVs range between $14.8-21 million. Talented players are available every year in free agency, and the Bears would be forced to forgo signing multiple top tier players at other positions in order to keep Fields—which makes sense if he’s a high-end starter, but not for midlevel quarterback play.
To their credit, the Bears do have a relatively clean cap situation in the next few years, even assuming they re-sign star corner Jaylon Johnson to a market deal this off-season. Johnson (presumably), DJ Moore, Montez Sweat, Tremaine Edmunds, Nate Davis, and Cole Kmet are the only players with cap hits over $10 million in 2024 and 2025, and the Bears could move on from several of those contracts early if needed. So they could survive over-paying Fields if he doesn’t turn into a top-flight starter—which at least gives them the option of keeping him while protecting against downside scenarios.
The Draft Picture
As a result of last year’s pre-draft trade with the Panthers, the Bears have the #1 overall pick in the 2024 draft. In any year, this would be an incredibly valuable pick, but that is especially true this year, where two quarterbacks are widely viewed as potential top-flight NFL straters. I won’t go into a detailed prospect analysis here, but Caleb Williams has been compared to the highest graded draft picks at quarterback this century (Andrew Luck and Trevor Lawrence), and even still, there are many draft prognosticators that would pick Drake Maye first. Suffice it to say, these are top-flight QB prospects.
The Bears also have their own first and third through seventh round picks plus a fourth round pick from Philadelphia, so they have a few opportunities to try to snag high-end talent in Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft while filing out the back of their roster with Day 3 picks.
There are essentially two ways to supplement their picks.
Option 1: Take a QB at #1 and Trade Fields
One option is to trade Fields, as at least nine other teams appear to have uncertainty at quarterback (the Commanders, Giants, Falcons, Vikings, Patriots, Jets, Raiders, Broncos, and Steelers). Some teams will find a future quarterback in this year’s draft—in addition to Williams and Maye, LSU’s Jayden McDaniels, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Michigan’s JJ McCarthy, and Oregon’s Bo Nix all project to be drafted in the first two rounds—and veteran options like Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson, and the quarterback formerly known as Ryan Tannehill will likely become available.
Even if all eight of those players (the five rookies and three vets) start next year, that would still leave two teams without a solution at quarterback—so Fields will have a market. At just 25 years old next year, just one year older than Penix and Nix, and with multiple potential suitors, the Bears should be able to get second round pick value back for Fields—if they’re lucky, perhaps even first round value.
Option 2: Trade the #1 Overall Pick
A second option is to trade the #1 pick in this year’s draft in the hopes of building around Fields. Given the talent at the top of the draft and number of QB-needy teams, the Bears should be able to get solid return. In the last twenty years, teams have traded into the top 10 to get a quarterback just 13 times:
In 2021, the Niners traded up to pick #3 to select Trey Lance and gave up the #12 pick, a first and third round pick in 2022 (#29 and #101 overall), and a first round pick in 2023 (#29). The Bears also traded up to get Justin Fields, giving up the #20 pick, a fifth round pick (#164), and a future first and fourth round pick to move up to #11 to select Fields.
In 2018, there were three trade ups for first round QBs. The Jets traded up to pick Sam Darnold at #3 overall, giving up their first rounder (#6), two second rounders (#37 and #49), and a 2019 second rounder to do so. The Bills also traded up to pick Josh Allen, trading the #12 pick and two second rounders (#53 and #56) for the #7 pick (used to take Allen) and a 7th round pick (#255). And the Cardinals moved up to pick #10 to select Josh Rosen, trading picks #15, #79, and #152 in exchange.
In 2017, the Bears traded up to #2 to pick Mitch Trubisky and gave up the #3 pick, third (#67) and fourth round (#111), and a 2018 third rounder, but the unquestionably better deal was for the Chiefs to trade up to #10 to select Patrick Mahomes in exchange for #27, #91, and a 2018 first rounder.
In 2016, the Rams traded #15, two seconds (#43 and #45), a third (#76), and 2017 first and third round picks to move up to #1 for Jared Goff (the Rams also got a fourth and sixth round pick in the deal). The Eagles also moved up to select Carson Wentz, receiving the #2 overall pick and a 2017 fourth rounder in exchange for the #8, #77, and #100 picks, plus a 2017 first rounder and a 2018 second rounder.
In 2012, the then Redskins traded their first and second round picks (#6 and #39) plus 2013 and 2014 first round picks to the Rams for #2 overall to select Robert Griffin III.
In 2011, the Jaguars traded #16 and #49 to move up to #10 to select Blaine Gabbert.
In 2009, the Jets traded their #17 and #52 picks and three players to move up to #5 to select Mark Sanchez.
In 2004, the Giants and Chargers made a trade of quarterbacks selected in the draft that year. The Chargers sent Eli Manning (picked #1 overall by the Chargers) to the Giants in exchange for Phillip Rivers (picked #4 overall by the Giants), a third round pick (#65), and first and fifth round picks in 2005.
These trades seem to rarely work out for the team trading up, and the return for moving up to draft QBs seems to have diminished some in recent years (although most years have not had quarterbacks as highly anticipated as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye). Regardless, the Bears can fairly expect to get back at least two (possibly 3) first round picks and additional Day 2 draft capital in exchange for moving back in the 2024 draft, depending on how far back they want to go.
Option #3: Keep the #1 Pick and Take the Best Non-QB
This option is pretty crazy, so I’m not going to spend much time on it. Lots of Bears fans seem to want to keep Fields and select Marvin Harrison Jr. at #1 overall. That’s CRAZY. At the very least, you need to trade the pick to get draft capital back from Washington or New England, picking at #2 and #3 respectively, or even the Giants at #5 or Falcons at #9. There are also really high-end receivers other than Harrison Jr. at the top end of this draft—notably LSU’s Malik Nabers and Washington’s Rome Odunze. Even if the Bears had to trade down to trade back up to pick one of the top WRs (a form of Option #2). The Bears also have some need at tackle, which is in the same boat with multiple high-end prospects likely to go in the first half of the first round.
So what should the Bears do?
Despite the hand-wringing, I don’t actually think this decision is all that hard.
The Bears should move on from Fields and draft a QB at #1 this year.
Top-flight QBs Show Themselves Early, Fields Hasn’t
Regardless of whether the Bears see the glass as half full or half empty with respect to Justin Fields’ development, the hard truth is that he still has to develop substantially to get to even league-average play for a quarterback as a passer. Fields’ potential is obvious, and I have no reason to doubt that he will continue to work on his craft, as any franchise player should. At the same time, there are almost no examples of quarterbacks “figuring it out” after three years as a starter, which Fields has already had.
There have been 69 quarterbacks taken in the first round since 2000. Of those QBs, 30 (43.5%) have made at least one Pro Bowl, an admittedly flawed way to look at whether QBs were good over the years, without relying too heavily on counting stats that vary by era. Only 18 (26.1%) have made multiple Pro Bowls (five of the 30 QBs with one appearance are in their fourth year or younger, so they haven’t had many chances).
Moreover, of the 30 QBs who made a Pro Bowl, almost all of them did so within their first three years as an NFL starter—24 of 30, or 80%. Most of the exceptions performed well early too: three made their first Pro Bowl in their fourth season (Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tua Tagovailoa), which Fields could do but likely will not. The other exceptions are Matt Stafford—who barely missed a Pro Bowl in his third season despite throwing for over 5000 yards and 41 touchdowns in an obvious franchise QB year—and Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill. While Smith and Tannehill became effective players, neither had the type of career that the Bears could reasonably hope for from Caleb Williams or Drake Maye, or even what they might aspire to for Fields.
In other words, we generally know early whether a first round QB is going to be good or not. After year three, no one really disputes that Fields’ trajectory is still unknown.
Top 5 Picks Like Williams and Maye Hit More Often
Conversely, the likelihood that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye go on to make a Pro Bowl (or multiple Pro Bowls) is higher based on their expected pedigree. Setting aside that Williams in particular is seen as a transcendent draft prospect, QBs picked in the top 5 are much more likely to be Pro Bowl caliber players than first round QBs in general. Again since 2000, 33 quarterbacks have been taken with a top 5 pick—19 (57.6%) have made at least one Pro Bowl and 12 (36.4%) have made two or more (five of these 33 QBs are still in their fourth year or younger). The 36 QBs picked outside the top 5 (like Fields) have made a Pro Bowl at just 30.6% clip and multiple Pro Bowls at just a 16.7% rate.
Even if the Bears like Fields, there’s a good reason to expect that Williams or Maye will outperform him. The Bears front office and GM Ryan Poles already appear to have passed on one (maybe more) franchise quarterbacks in the 2022 by trading the #1 overall pick last year. If Fields doesn’t hit, passing on another potential franchise quarterback in 2023 is the kind of thing that gets GMs fired quickly.
Resetting the QB Contract Clock Is Hugely Valuable
As discussed above, even if Fields continues to make marginal progress, he is likely to be paid upwards of $40 million per season in just three years (2026). While they won’t be locked in, effectively the Bears will have to make a costly decision on Fields this Spring to secure the fifth year option and decide whether to re-sign him long term after the 2024 season. That isn’t a lot of time to decide whether Fields is in fact the guy long-term. If they keep Fields, the Bears will be forced to make a decision soon on whether to tether themselves financially to him long-term.
Drafting a quarterback puts off that timeline for an additional three years, as Williams or Maye would be under team control—and at relatively low dollars—until 2029. Franchise QBs on rookie deals, with up to five years of team cost control, is the holy grail of roster construction. Landing one can cover up a lot of holes and misses in other areas. That possibility is already gone with Fields, but Williams and Maye keep that scenario very much alive. Trading Fields and hitting on Williams or Maye would mean the Bears can comfortably re-sign talent they’ve already accumulated like Jaylon Johnson, sign one or two top tier free agents at key positions or make several smaller free agent acquisitions, and take the appropriate time to build their roster, without having to worry about a pending quarterback contract renewal. Coupled with the fact that we all expect Williams and Maye to be good, that flexibility is enormous.
More Draft Capital from Trading the #1 Pick Isn’t Enough
Optimistically, the Bears can hope to get more than three first round picks worth of value back for the #1 overall pick this year. That’s strong value and worth considering.
But even though the Bears appear to have “won” last year’s trade with the Panthers, where they made a similar move to trade off of the #1 overall pick in 2023, they’ve had some good fortune in the form of Carolina’s incredible 2023 collapse. By making the trade, the Bears missed out on apparent franchise QB CJ Stroud, a tantalizing prospect in Anthony Richardson, and high-end pass rusher Will Anderson Jr (and of course, Bryce Young). And nobody counted on the Panthers falling apart so spectacularly, dropping to 2-14 (so far) from 7-10 last year, which catapulted the value of the future first and second round picks the Bears got back in the deal.
The quality of the picks the Bears get back would matter quite a bit. They would be moving down this year at least, and because nobody other than the Cardinals has multiple first rounders this year, the Bears would have to get back future firsts. Those future picks cannot be assumed to be at the high end of the first round in 2025 or beyond—we don’t know who the trade partner would be, and we can’t know whether their 2024 performance would result in a high-end pick rather than a pick in the #10-15 range (even if the team is bad).
At the same time, given the number of teams searching for quarterbacks is again likely to exceed the number of quarterbacks available through the draft, free agency, and trade, there’s doubtless going to be a reasonable market for Fields. Dealing Fields, especially after his recent string of play, is likely to result in the Bears getting back solid pick value too—at best a first round pick from a team eager to compete in 2024 and in need of a QB like Atlanta or Pittsburgh, or more likely a second round pick from another suitor. This would leave the Bears without two future firsts draft capital (probably a little less), but that’s a more than reasonable price to pay for three years of additional financial flexibility and to have as good of a chance, or better, at finding a franchise cornerstone.
Top 5 Picks Are Hard to Come By!
42 years ago, the Bears selected Jim McMahon at #5 overall in the 1982 NFL draft—the last good Bears quarterback according to many Bears fans (most notably Michael Wilbon). Since then, the Bears have had top five picks in just three times, selecting Curtis Enis in 1998, Cedric Benson in 2005, and trading up (as discussed above) to pick Mitch Trubisky in 2017. Even this year, despite struggling for much of the season, the Bears are currently expected to pick 10th.
The chance to draft quarterbacks as talented as Caleb Williams and Drake Maye is rare for the Bears, especially without trading up. This isn’t an opportunity that is likely to repeat itself anytime soon.
Moving On Ain’t Easy
If the Bears do move and draft Caleb Williams or Drake Maye at #1 this April, Justin Fields’ story as an NFL quarterback isn’t over. The Bears and their fans will inevitably watch his progress and compare him to their next quarterback. That’s FINE, and appropriate, and it would happen the other direction all the same. All fans—and most people, even in front offices—play the “what if” game. But given the cost of paying Fields, and the opportunity the Bears would forgo (again) by passing on this year’s elite quarterback prospects, is too high to be offset by the draft picks the Bears would get back by trading the 2024 #1 pick.