Kings NBA Trade Deadline (Part 1): The Kings Have to Find a Way to Get Better
[This is Part 1 of a multi-part series of posts on how the Kings need to look to improve ahead of the NBA’s looming trade deadline; how their assets and cap space will influence who they can target in the trade market (if anyone); and whether any of the hot trade target names make sense]
The NBA trade deadline is February 8th, a little less than one month away. Just under halfway through the season, the Kings are sitting as the fifth seed in the Western Conference at 21-14, barely ahead of the sixth-place Mavericks (22-15) and seventh-place Pelicans (22-15).
Going into back-to-back games on the road against Detroit (tonight) and Charlotte (tomorrow), by the most important measure, the Kings are already doing slightly better than last year. Last year’s team went 20-15 to start the season before ultimately winning 48 games and finishing as the 3-seed in the West.
That said, there’s no real question the Western Conference has continued to improve overall this year. The Nuggets continue to perform, Timberwolves and Thunder are gelling, the Clippers have been healthy and near-flawless after a slow start following the addition of James Harden, the Mavs and Pelicans have been effective, the Rockets finally appear to be turning things around, and the Suns are finally healthy. Only three teams in the West won 48 games or more last year, but there are seven teams in the Conference on pace to hit that mark this season (as of today). A “slight” improvement on last year may not cut it as a result.
On top of increased competition in the conference, there are some headline issues that should raise concern for the Kings and their fans.
This year’s Kings team has a negative point differential so far, scoring 0.3 points less than opponents per game. That’s 10th in the West and 18th in the NBA, and it looks more like what you would expect from a .500 team than a team with a 21-14 record.
The offense has taken a small step back, especially compared to the rest of the league. The Kings are scoring 117.7 points per game (8th in NBA), down from 120.7 last season (1st in NBA). Similarly, their offensive rating has also dropped from a league-leading 118.6 (1st overall) to 116.0 (14th overall).
The defense, which the team hoped to improve from last season, hasn’t made significant strides forward. Last year’s team had a defensive rating of 116.0 (23rd overall) and this year’s team has a defensive rating of 116.1 (21st overall).
Overall, the top-line stats above are suggestive of a team that hasn’t been able to generate enough offense to make up for its deficiencies on defense. Looking closer, though, is illuminating. The Kings have three big issues that they’re facing offensively—two of which may resolve themselves without changes to the roster. On defense, the same issues that have beleaguered them in the past are showing up, suggesting roster moves might make a difference.
Let’s jump in.
The Kings Offense Comes Back to the Pack
I am focusing on three offensive issues that have showed up consistently so far this season. These are issues that I’ve noticed watching (literally) every game so far this season, and the stats show they help explain some of the Kings’ offensive backslide, as the team has fallen from a record-setting offense to one that is just pretty good. Given the current roster, the Kings could look to improve their overall play by getting their offense back in shape without re-inventing themselves.
The Offense Craters Without Fox
The number one issue facing the Kings right now is what to do when Fox is out of the game. Every team is going to suffer when you take its best player off the court, but the Kings have tanked offensively when De’Aaron Fox is on the bench. When Fox sits, the Kings drops from 120.8 points per 100 possessions to just 111.8 based on data from PBP Stats.
Fox is also carrying the biggest offensive load of his career, which has allowed the Kings to maintain a top 10 offense overall. He’s averaging 28.3 points, 6.0 assists, and 4.4 rebounds in just over 35 minutes per game while shooting 47.0% from the field and 39.2% from three, and his usage rate is a career-high 32.4%. His numbers have dipped slightly in recent weeks in part because of the massive load he’s carrying.
While the Kings offense often runs through Sabonis at the top of the key whether Fox is in the game or not, there’s no question Fox is the driving the ship. Fox has been the team’s most prolific three point shooter this year, especially as other shooters have struggled. Keegan Murray struggled from deep early (although he’s recovering his percentages from last year). Kevin Huerter’s shooting has cratered to 34.1% from 40.2% last season, which has hurt spacing and rendered previously effective offensive plays like the Sabonis-Huerter dribble handoff ineffective. On top of his three point shooting, Fox is also the team’s most effective and frequent driver. Fox drives 16.7 times per game—the next closest on the team is Malik Monk at 11.9, per NBA.com. That penetration has opened up shots and driving lanes for the rest of the team, most of whom aren’t best hunting shots on their own.
Mike Brown has tried to mitigate the impact of sitting Fox by staggering his minutes with Sabonis—Fox typically comes out of the game with about six minutes left in the first quarter while Sabonis keeps playing, then comes back in when Sabonis rests—but that hasn’t solved the problem. Again per PBP Stats, when Fox and Sabonis share the floor, the Kings offensive rating is 120.0 and their net rating is 2.72, but even when Sabonis is in the game while Fox sits, that plummets to an offensive rating of 111.1 and a net rating of -6.54. With Fox in the game and Sabonis sitting, the Kings are still able to get by on the strength of Fox’s offense, as the team’s offensive rating jumps to 122.6 and the net rating stays at a respectable 1.59.
Having Malik Monk play with Sabonis has helped, but it’s not a cure. With Monk and Sabonis, and no Fox, the Kings have posted an offensive rating of 116.1 and a net rating of 0.74. Those line-ups rely heavily on two actions, Sabonis in the high-post (a staple for the Kings the last two years) and the Monk/Sabonis pick and roll. The Sabonis high-post game has been effective in the past, but Monk isn’t yet efficient as a pick and roll initiator despite his knack for making some electric passes. When Monk is the pick and roll ball handler, the Kings are scoring just 0.84 points per play and have a turnover frequency of 21.9% per NBA.com (the Kings don’t run pick and roll super efficiently even with Fox, but for comparison, when Fox is the pick and roll ball handler, they’re scoring 1.00 points per play with a turnover frequency of just 12.7%). Finding more efficiency out of the pick and roll when Fox is on the bench, whether from improved play by Monk (he’s still learning what passes are best as the pick and roll initiator) or through a trade addition, would go a long way in bolstering the Kings offense during the minutes he sits.
In the limited time the Kings roll with Sabonis and no Fox or Monk, the offensive is effectively non-existent. Lineups with Sabonis and no Fox or Monk are getting killed, with an offensive rating of 103.9 and a net rating of -14.9 (per PBP Stats).
Stats from PBP Stats
There isn’t a clear answer on the roster for the non-Fox minutes, either. Keon Ellis’ minutes without Fox on the floor have been productive, but they’ve been heavily influenced by low-leverage minutes. It’s tough to expect Ellis to takeover backup minutes for an All-NBA player in his first full season out of the G-League.
Stats from PBP Stats
The Kings need to find a way to prop up the offense when Fox sits. Monk has been solid, but adding another ball-handler (or pick and roll partner for Sabonis) could alleviate the pressure on Monk to create offense through pick and rolls, not his most effective tool, when things stagnate.
Trouble Shooting From Two
Even though the Kings mostly took high quality shots last year, they’ve still managed to improve their shot diet this year. Compared to last season, they’re taking more threes and fewer long-range twos. This year, the Kings are shooting threes at the third-highest rate in the NBA, 40.7 threes per 100 possessions (up from 36.9 per 100 possessions last season), and their three point shooting has held steady at around 37% (they’re shooting 37.2% this year versus 36.9% last year). A whopping 45.2% of their shots come from three point range, up an already healthy 42.3% last season. They’ve also dropped the percentage of their shots that are long twos—only 11.9% of the team’s shots are taken between 10+ feet from the basket but inside the 3 point line (compared to 13% last season).
All of that is great news! But that improved shot diet has been off-set by the team’s shooting troubles from two point range, where their shooting has dropped off meaningfully from basically everywhere.
Overall, the Kings’ two point shooting has fallen to 55.8% (9th in the NBA) from a league-leading 58.6% last year. That’s a big drop, even if it would be hard to match last year’s figure.
The drop-off has been even more noticeable (and problematic) in the paint, as those are shots that the team has hit with high frequency on the backs of Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. The Kings are shooting a good-but-not-great 66.9% from the restricted area, good for 12th and 23rd in the NBA respectively, but down from a stellar 69.5% on 26.6 shots per game last year (per NBA.com). They’re also shooting 46.6% from the paint outside the restricted area, down from last year’s 47.7%. NBA.com also provides data by distance, which shoes that the team’s shooting from the midrange has been worse too. On shots between 10-19 feet (roughly, midrange twos), the Kings shooting has dropped to just 41.0% from 43.8% last season.
The Kings have several players shooting worse than last year from two point range. Fox and Sabonis are both down from last year, and so are Huerter and Monk. There is some hope that the two point shooting returns to last’s years form, but that is hard to bank on, as last year’s league-leading two point shooting percentage would be difficult to replicate under any circumstances without adding paint scorers or creating more space for Fox and Sabonis. Given the Kings’ issues keeping the offense afloat when Fox sits, adding a paint scorer could be the more effective answer.
Struggles With Free Throws
There’s no need to dig deeply on this one, the Kings’ free throw shooting has been plainly bad this year. They are dead last in the NBA shooting 72.9% from the line, falling from last year’s mid-pack free throw percentage of 79.0%. Fox and Sabonis dominate free throw trips for the Kings, but each is shooting worse than last year from the line. From the line, Fox is shooting 72.1% on 6.9 FT attempts per game (FTA), down from 78% on 6.0 FTAs last season; Sabonis is shooting just 65.4% on 5.4 FTAs, down from 74.2% on 5.5 FTAs last season (per Basketball Reference).
But the Kings are also drawing less fouls regardless. They were fourth-best in the league last year at drawing fouls (20.9 per game), but that’s dropped all the way to 19th (19.3 per game). This is partly the natural result of shooting more threes, but it has meant fewer trips to the foul line for easier scoring chances. With Fox’s FTAs going up and Sabonis’ FTAs staying stagnant, it’s meant that the rest of the team—generally stronger free throw shooters—have shot 3.6 less free throws per game overall compared to last year. Even if those players shot just 75% from the free throw line, that would be an additional 2.7 points per game—which has to be made up elsewhere.
Obviously the simplest way to improve at the line is for Fox and Sabonis to shoot better. Having another strong shooter who can handle the ball and draw fouls could help, but that would take the ball out of the hands of the team’s two best players. Given the team is asking its role players to shoot more threes, too, it’s hard to expect a dramatic improvement in their free throw rate, but those players have got to get to the line more nonetheless.
(Mostly) More of the Same on Defense
Top-Line Stats Say the Defense Hasn’t Changed From Last Year
The Kings have well-documented defensive issues dating back to last season (or longer depending on who you ask . . . but the team was also totally different). Last season, the Kings gave up 118.1 points per game (26th overall) with a defensive rating of 116.0 (24th overall). Despite another year under the tutelage of Head Coach Mike Brown, who is known for his defensive prowess, this year’s Kings defense is in most ways unchanged: they give up 118.0 points per game (22nd overall) with a defensive rating of 116.1 (20th overall).
A league-wide uptick in scoring does mask that the Kings have made some improvements on the defensive end. These improvements have come largely in the form of slightly more blocks, steals, and fewer offensive rebounds—but they’re small improvements at best. You can see from the chart below how some of the team’s key defensive metrics have stayed flat or regressed slightly, with the exception of opponent offensive rebounds and a slight uptick in blocks.
Stats from Basketball Reference
Still No Paint Protection
It’s never been a huge surprise that protecting the paint isn’t a strength for the Kings. Sabonis is on the smaller side of centers (perfect heights/wingspans aren’t available, but he’s listed at 6’10” with a 6’10.5” wingspan); Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Trey Lyles, and Sasha Vezenkov are definitely on the small side for NBA 4’s; and Javale McGee and Alex Len don’t get enough minutes to defend the paint most of the game. Combined with perimeter players who lack ideal length—Fox, Monk, and Davion Mitchell are smaller, and Huerter, Chris Duarte, and Keon Ellis aren’t exactly pterodactyls—the Kings have to move their feet and nail rotations to defend the paint well.
There’s no denying that the Kings are once again struggling to defend the paint. Even though Sabonis in particular is a stellar big overall and has been pretty effective this year defensively (he ranks 17th overall in Basketball Reference’s Defensive Box Plus/Minus, above defensive stalwarts Rudy Gobert, Chet Holmgren, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Walker Kessler), that hasn’t fixed the paint issues. They don’t block shots, they aren’t particularly adept at getting steals, and they don’t get a ton of deflections, as noted above.
They have improved their defense at the rim somewhat. Opponents last year shot 73.3% on shots between zero and three feet (25th in the NBA), which they’ve improved to 69.8% this year per Basketball Reference. Yet whatever improvement they’ve made at the rim has been given back to opposing offenses in the form of short jumpers and runners. On shots between 3 and 10 feet, the Kings are allowing opponents to shoot 50.3% (27th in the NBA), up from 47.5% last year.
Simply adding a big to cover the paint probably can’t solve the issue. The Kings tried this last off-season when they added Javale McGee last year in free agency, hoping to help assuage some of the rim- and paint-defense issues. McGee hasn’t been able to improve the defense overall, as the team’s defensive rating is 2.5 points worse per 100 possessions with McGee on the court versus on the bench. McGee’s length has meant that opponents shoot about 7% worse at the rim with him on the floor, but that benefit gets eaten up by the fact that opponents end up shooting 5% better from three due to McGee’s difficulties switching onto perimeter players and the Kings’ general troubles with perimeter defense.
Bigs who can protect the paint and hold their own on the perimeter are kind of like unicorns, so finding one on the trade market would be difficult, if not impossible. On the other hand, adding perimeter players who can more effectively bite down on paint shots and still defend three point shooters and dribble drives is likely an easier path to address the issue.
Still Can’t Defend the Three
The Kings are also still struggling to effectively defend the three point line. They’re once again in the bottom tier of the league, allowing opponents to shoot 38.5% from three point range, a tick worse than last year’s 37.3% mark. Watching Kings games regularly, it’s hard to avoid noticing the number of missed rotations that result in wide-open threes.
One of the biggest issues remains that they give up too many corner threes, a shot that most teams try to hunt, far too easily, even though they’ve improved slightly in that department from last season. This year, their opponents shoot 24.2% of their total threes from the corners (19th in the NBA) and they hit a robust 41.1% percent of them (20th in the NBA) per Basketball Reference. That’s in line with last year’s marks of 26.0% of threes coming from the corner (24th) and 39.5% shooting (19th).
As a team, the Kings are contesting just 15.8 threes per game, tied for 24th in the NBA. Other teams around them either do a better job of contesting shots generally, like Minnesota and Milwaukee, or play at a slower pace, like the Heat and Sixers. The Kings also don’t get their hands on many passes (13.5 deflections per game, 26th in the NBA), which would be another way to mitigate the threat of open shooters.
As with protecting the paint, adding a perimeter defender could help address these issues quite a bit.
Still Need More Hustle
When it comes to hustle plays, the Kings need to do a better job. While admittedly anecdotal, too often, games this season have slipped away because opposing teams have ramped up the intensity and the Kings haven’t. Especially when they don’t shoot well, the lack of energy and infrequency of true hustle plays has a dramatic deflating effect on the team. It’s let some opponents go on big runs and has contributed to the Kings frequently getting blown out in losses (7 of their 14 losses has been by 15 points or more). While the Kings don’t have defensive stars like some other teams, they can still do a better job with getting their hands up in passing lanes, swiping at balls without fouling, taking charges, and generally making opponents uncomfortable, especially when they’re not hitting shots, to keep opponents from going on runs.
The stats say the same thing. The Kings are 18th in offensive rebounding, tied for 18th in steals, 27th in blocks, 26th in deflections, tied for 17th in loose ball recoveries, 18th in charges drawn, 25th in shot contests, 18th in the percentage of offensive rebounds they box out on, and 13th in the percentage of defensive rebounds they box out on. These rankings aren’t all bad, and they’re certainly based on more than pure effort, but they are areas that the Kings can improve internally or by adding defense-minded players at the deadline.
Part Two Coming Soon!
In the next part of this series, I’m going to look at what the Kings have to trade and how the salary cap this season and beyond should influence their thinking ahead of the trade deadline.